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The San Diego Padres visit Chase Field as they open an NL West set against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday.

San Diego is 9-11 SU and 4-3 SU on the road this season. The Padres are 3rd in the NL West team standings and are 2.5 games behind the leaders – Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is 11-8 SU to start the year and they are 5-2 SU at home this season. The Diamondbacks are 3-1 SU in their last four games played while the Padres are just 2-4 SU in their last six games played.

San Diego Padres

The Padres earned a much-needed win as they beat the Atlanta Braves 1-0 to end Atlanta’s winning streak at 8. The struggling Juan Soto had the game’s only score with a home run while Nick Martinez pitched seven solid innings. However, the Padres have scored just five runs in their last six games played.

San Diego ranks just 25th in scoring at 3.65 runs per game. They are 28th in hitting with a team batting average of .223 and 22nd in OPS at .691. They are 8th in the league with 23 long balls and 22nd in stolen bases with 9. The San Diego pitching staff is 12th with a team ERA of 4.08, 19th in WHIP at 1.36, and six quality starts.

Michael Wacha will get the start for the Padres in this season opener. Wacha is 2-1 with an ERA of 6.06 and a WHIP of 1.47. In his last start, he gave up seven runs on 11 hits including two home runs against the Milwaukee Brewers. The 31-year-old defeated Colorado and Atlanta in his first two starts of the year, going six innings in each appearance. He has a 3:1 K: BB ratio this year.

Arizona Diamondbacks

After losing two of three to Miami in their previous series, the Arizona Diamondbacks went 2-1 against the St. Louis Cardinals. They are however coming off a 5-14 drubbing during the series finale last Wednesday. Madison Bumgarner dropped to 0-3 on the season as he was hit hard again, allowing seven runs on seven hits in just four innings of work.

Arizona is 16th in scoring at 4.63 runs per game. They are 7th in batting average at .259, and 15th in OPS at .725. They also rank 24th in home runs with 17, and 6th in stolen bases with 19. The Diamondbacks pitching staff is 23rd in the league with a team ERA of 4.96 and a whip of 1.41, 22nd overall with six quality starts.

Right-hander Ryne Nelson will open on top of the mound for the Diamondbacks. The 25-year-old has three no decisions in his first three starts of the year. In his most recent start against Miami, Nelson pitched six innings and allowed one home run on five hits with four walks. Arizona is 1-2 in his three starts this season.

Padres v Diamondbacks Betting Prediction

The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Diamondbacks. San Diego is also 4-1 in their last 5 games played in Arizona.

San Diego Padres betting trends:

Arizona Diamondback betting trends:

  • Moneyline Odds: Padres -140, Diamondbacks +120
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/20/2023

Arizona was hammered with 14 runs against the Cardinals on Wednesday, with all runs scored within the first six innings. The trend could continue on Thursday as they are facing a Padres team that is due for an offensive breakout as they welcome Fernando Tatis Jr. back from suspension.

Michael Wacha was roughed up in his most recent start but he should be able to bounce back on Thursday. Arizona is hitting just .245 with an OBP of .291 against right-handed pitchers with 22 walks in 380 at-bats. Two starts ago, Wacha allowed zero runs in six innings on two hits and one walk with 10 strikeouts.

Meanwhile, Nelson gave up three runs on six hits with three walks against this same Padres team. San Diego scored 3 runs in the first two innings and I expect them to do the same on Thursday. With Tatis returning, I expect the Padres to be in a winning mood.

Prediction: San Diego Padres

Padres v Diamondbacks Over/Under Prediction

The under is also 4-1 in their last 5 games played in Arizona.

San Diego Padres over/under trends:

Arizona Diamondbacks over/under trends:

  • Over/Under Odds: Over 9 (-110), Under 9 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/20/2023

The Padres have struggled at the plate as of late. However, the law of averages says they should get better soon. San Diego should get a boost from Wednesday’s win over the Atlanta Braves. The return of Tatis after the completion of his 80-game PED suspension should also give them a lift.

Tatis played in 8 Triple-A games and hit .515/.590/1.212 with seven home runs, six walks, and 3 strikeouts. Juan Soto is also coming off a game where he went yard so Thursday could be a preview of what the Padres’ dynamic duo could do in the coming games.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have scored five or more runs in four consecutive games. They are hitting .298 at home this season with an OBP of .345 and an OPS of .841. I’m going with the over at Chase Field.

Prediction: Over 9

The Atlanta Hawks try again at the TD Garden on Tuesday night.

The Hawks lost the Boston Celtics in Game 1 112-99 to fall behind 0-1 in their best-of-seven first-round playoff series. Atlanta failed to hit the century mark for the first time since early December. The Hawks shot just 5-29 from a three-point distance in Game 1

The Celtics are looking to sweep the first two games of the series and hold home-court advantage. Boston got another big game from their dynamic duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Derrick White also scored 24 during the win.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have plenty of good shooters on their team and they averaged 35.2% from a three-point distance during the regular season but they fired blanks in Game 1. Atlanta shot just 17.2% from downtown and missed 15 out of their 33 three-pointers attempted. Their starting backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray combined to shoot just 1-11 from deep.

Murray however had a big night for the Hawks as he put up 24 points with 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals. However, Trae Young scored only 16 points, 10 below his regular season scoring average of 26.2 points per game. Deandre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela all scored in double digits but none of the three scored more than 12 points to give Murray support.

During the regular season, the Hawks averaged 118.4 points per game while grabbing 44.4 rebounds and issuing 25.0 assists per game. Young led the team in scoring and passing at 26.2 points and 10.2 assists per game. Clint Capela led the team in rebounding at 12.0 boards per contest while also shooting 65.3% from deep.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics dominated Game 1 and led by as many as 32 points before coasting in the end. Boston outrebounded Atlanta 58-45 while their two stars led the way. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 29 points while Jayson Tatum added 25. The duo also combined to grab 25 rebounds in a brilliant effort. Derrick White also emerged with 24 points as the Celtics were rolled over the Hawks in Game 1.

White also added 7 assists and 5 rebounds while also hitting four three-pointers. Boston’s outside shooting clicked as every starter made at least two three-point baskets. Al Horford started at center but struggled for only 6 points. Marcu Smart did his part and played excellent defense again the Hawks. The Celtic played only 8 players in Game 1 with Malcolm Brogdon and Robert WIlliams playing over 20 minutes.

Boston scored an average of 117.9 points per game during the regular season. The Celtics pulled down 45.3 boards per contest and issued 26.7 dimes per outing. Jayson Tatum led the team in scoring at 30.1 points per game. Jaylen Brown added 26.6 points per game while also leading the team in FG percentage at 49.2%. Marcus Smart led the team with 6.5 rebounds per game while also putting up 11.5 points per game.

Hawks vs Celtics SU Prediction

The Hawks are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Celtics. Atlanta is also 0-5 SU in their last 5 games played against Boston.

Atlanta Hawks SU trends:

Boston Celtics SU trends:

  • Moneyline Odds: Hawks +405, Celtics -510
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/18/2023

The Hawks came up short in Game 1 as their offense struggled. Atlanta scored just 99 points, marking the first time since December 7th that they failed to hit at least 100 points. Dejounte Murray scored 2 points for the Hawk but Trae Young struggled with only 16 points.

Atlanta’s offensive woes were traced to their poor three-point shooting. The Hawks shot just 5-29 from deep while the Celtics made 13 of 33 attempts from downtown, Murray, and Young combined to make only one three-pointer in 11 attempts. If the Hawks want to have a chance at beating the Celtics, the duo and Trae Young especially must shoot much better from the floor.

Young has been disappointing to start the playoffs and it looks like his late-season struggles have carried over. While he scored 24+ points in each of his last three regular season games played, he scored 14 or fewer in four of seven outings prior to that. There is no doubt Young can score against Boston as he averaged 31 points per game during their two regular season meetings.

The Celtics had another big game from their young and talented duo of Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown. Tatum had 25 points and 11 rebounds while Brown led the Celtics with 29 points and 12 rebounds. Derrick White also had a big game for Boston with 24 points.

Tatum and Brown have consistently led the Celtics’ scoring charge. They averaged close to 60 points combined in March as Boston averaged over 120 points per game that month. With the postseason starting, they are picking off right where they left off during the regular season.

Brown has scored at least 25 points in 15 out of his last 19 games played. His red-hot shooting carried over to Game 1 where he made 12 of 23 shots. Brown averaged 23 points per game during Boston’s two regular season games against Atlanta.

I expect a better effort from Trae Young. But with the Celtics also playing excellent defense, I like Boston to repeat over Atlanta here. Give me the Celtics to take a 2-0 lead.

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Hawks vs Celtics ATS Prediction

The Hawks are0-6 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Celtics. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in their last five games played in Boston.

Atlanta Hawks ATS trends:

Boston Celtics AT trends:

  • Spread Odds: Hawks +10.5 (-110), Celtics -10.5 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/18/2023

I like the Celtics to win this game but I don’t think this will be a rout like the first game. Atlanta will be desperate for a win and they will enter this game playing like no tomorrow. Trae Young is coming off a poor game and I expect him to bounce back with a better effort in Game 2. Everybody in Atlanta except Capela can shoot the three ball and I don’t expect another 5-29 shooting from deep from them. With Atlanta shooting the rock better, I don’t expect Boston to dominate the boards in Game 2.

Marcus Smart is an excellent defender but I expect Trae Young to come out better. The Hawks need a strong performance to stay alive in the series. They should be able to do that and keep this a close game all throughout. I think 10 points is too much to lay to a team that is desperate.

Prediction: Hawks +10.5

Hawks vs Celtics Over/Under Prediction

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 games played between these two teams. The total has gone under in three out of the last four games played between these two teams in Boston.

Atlanta Hawks over/under trends:

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

  • Over/Under Odds: Over 229 (-110), Under 229 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/18/2023

More than Boston’s impressive defense, it was Atlanta’s shooting woes that contributed to the blowout loss in Game 1. I expect the Hawk to bounce back with at least a better effort here. They should be able to hit more three-pointers here and will be able to go toe-to-toe with the Celtics’ high-powered offense early on. Meanwhile, Boston has the firepower to score 120 points easily. With Tatum and Brown playing so well right now, I think offense dictates this game.

Prediction: Over 229

The Brooklyn Nets try again on Monday night. The Nets were outgunned 121-102 by the Sixers in Game 1 of their best-of-seven first-round playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center.

Philly also covered the 8.5 spread easily in that game as they hit a franchise playoff record with 21 three-pointers made. Joel Embiid and James Harden led the way for the No. 3 seeded Sixers but it was a team effort as three others Sixers players scored in double digits.

Brooklyn kept itself within striking distance during most of the game. However, they were outscored in each of the four quarters and the Sixers were able to blow them out during the fourth quarter of the game.

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets began the season looking to finally win the title. But those aspirations went down the drain when both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving requested a trade before the deadline. Without the two, the Nets lost their star power although they got some good players, including Mikal Bridges.

Bridges had himself a Nets playoff debut when he put up 30 points in Game 1 of this series while keeping the team within striking distance of the Sixers early in the game. He shot 10-16 from the floor and scored 23 points in the first half as Brooklyn trailed by only 9 at the break. Cameron Johnson added 18 points while Spencer Dinwiddie was the only other player to score in double digits with 14.

Although the sellout crowd of 20,913 was against them, Brooklyn started out decently and they were able to keep themselves close to the Sixers. They did this by not letting Joel Embiid take over the game. Despite that, they could not stop Embiid who scored 26 and made all 11 of his free throw attempts.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers opened their 2023 postseason strong. They blew out the Nets by 20 points in the series opener despite Joel Embiid not having a monster night. James Harden looked impressive with seven three-pointers made while finishing with 26 points and 13 assists. Embiid made only seven field goals but went 11-11 from the foul line.

Tobias Harris also scored 21 points while Tyrese Maxes was the fourth starter in double-digit scoring with 13 points. The Sixers made a total of 21 three-pointers in Game 1, setting a new franchise playoff record. Maxey and Harris made three three-pointers each while PJ Tucker, DeAnthony Melton, and George Niang added two triples apiece.

Philly outscored Brooklyn in each of the four quarters of the game, including 8 in the fourth period where they broke the game wide open. The Sixers have owned the Nets, beating them seven times in their last 10 games played and in each of their last 5 playoff meetings.

Nets vs 76ers SU Prediction

The Nets are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Sixers. Brooklyn is 2-4 SU in their last six games played against Philadelphia.

Brooklyn Nets SU trends:

Philadelphia 76ers SU trends:

  • Moneyline Odds: Nets +385, 76ers -475
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/17/2023

The Sixers made the Nets pay for double-teaming MVP candidate Joel Embiid in Game 1. Every time that Brooklyn put two men on The Process, he made the kick-out pass to his open teammates and they responded by knocking down the three ball shots and setting a franchise playoff record for three-pointers made by going 21-43 from deep.

James Harden scored 23 points while dishing off 13 assists with 7 rebounds and made 7-13 shots from long range. Embiid still led the team with 26 points, including an impressive 11-11 from the foul line. Harden and Embiid led a balanced scoring attack which saw five Sixers finish in double-digit scoring.

Meanwhile, the Nets will try to steal one game in Philly again. Brooklyn hung around for the majority part of the game. However, they committed 20 turnovers and that ultimately cost them. If they win this game, they will head home for Game 3 with home-court advantage shifting in their favor.

Miles Bridges scored 30 points in his first playoff game for the Nets. Cameron Johnson added 18 points while Spencer Dinwiddie had 10. Seth Curry also scored in double-digits with 10 for Brooklyn. No doubt that the Nets have the firepower to keep themselves in this game. However, they need to take care of the ball better in order to have a chance to win.

Brooklyn also gave up 21 second-chance points to the Hungry Sixers. That number has to go down if they want to win this game. If they are able to do that and execute better. This should not look like the blowout that we saw in Game 1.

I think that the Nets will give this game a better fight. However, the Sixers should prove too much for them once again. With Embiid and Harden playing well together, I expect the Sixers to build a 2-0 series lead. The Nets have lost five straight playoff games to the Sixers. Make that six in a row.

Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

Nets vs 76ers ATS Prediction

The Nets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Sixers. Brooklyn is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games played in Philadelphia.

Brooklyn Nets ATS trends:

Philadelphia 76ers AT trends:

  • Spread Odds: Nets +10 (-110), 76ers -10 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/17/2023

The Nets came to this season with a championship in mind. That does not look plausible right now after they traded both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Although the Nets got a good haul from the two, they do not have the same star power as they had before.

 Before the two left, however, they left the Nets in good hands to make the playoffs. That’s a good part of why they are here right now. While the likes of Miles Bridges and Cam Johnson are very good players, they are not on the same superstar level as KD and Kyrie.

They are overmatched against a Sixers team that has two stars in Joel Embiid and James Harden. The Sixers also have a strong supporting cast with Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris.

 I think that Philly has too much muscle and firepower in this matchup. The Nets should be able to keep the game close early on but just as we saw in Game 1, the Sixers should pull away late. I’ll lay the points and pick Philly to win by double digits.

Prediction: Sixers -10

Nets vs 76ers Over/Under Prediction

The over is 4-1 in the last 5 games played between these two teams. The total has gone over in four out of their last five meetings in Philadelphia.

Brooklyn Nets over/under trends:

Philadelphia 76ers over/under trends:

  • Over/Under Odds: Over 214 (-110), Under 214 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/17/2023

Game 1 was played the way things unfolded when these teams met during the regular season. That’s with the Sixers controlling the paint and dominating the Nets. Game 1 went over after the Sixers hit a playoff franchise record with 21 triples made. Although I don’t expect them to hit as many three-pointers in Game 2, Philly has plenty of good outside shooters and they should be able to hit their stride once again.

The total has gone over 220 points in 8 out of the last 10 games played by the Nets. Meanwhile, the 76ers have gone over 220 points in all but one of their last 10 games played. They have scored at least 121 in each of their last three games. The Philly offense is clicking and although they play terrific defense, this game should go over this low total.

Prediction: Over 214

The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the St. Louis Cardinals for a four-game set beginning Thursday. The Cardinals are also beginning a 7-game homestand with this game.

The Pirates are 7-5 on the season and they are currently 2nd in the NL Central Division, just one game behind their division leaders Milwaukee Brewer. Pittsburgh is just 3-3 in their last six games played. They were shut out by the Houston Astros 7-0 in their last game on Wednesday.

The Cardinals are 5-7 SU on the season and they are 4th in the NL Central Division. St. Louis is currently 3 games behind the Brewers and they head to this series having won their last two games after going 1-5 in the six games before that. In their last game, the Cardinals defeated the Colorado Rockies 7-4 on Wednesday.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates played well in their first two games against the Astros. But they were limited to only three hits at home and were shut out by Houston. Rich Hill took the mound for the Pirates and allowed two runs through six innings. However, the entire Pittsburgh pitching staff produced only two strikeouts.

Taking the mound in Game 1 of the series is right-hander Vince Velasquez. He hasn’t been to a good start this season, but he threw better in his last one, despite allowing five runs with two home runs in 4.2 innings pitched. Velasquez has not faced the Cardinals since 2021. In those 3 games, he posted a 5.91 ERA. Last season, Velasquez posted an ERA of 4.78 and a WHIP of 1.23 which was a career-high for him.

Pittsburgh is 20th in the league with 51 runs scored. They are 26th in batting average at .228, 23rd n OBP at .309, and 20th in slugging percentage at .405. The Pirates’ pitching staff is T-17 with an ERA of 4.73. They are tied for 13th with 3 quality starts, 17th in WHIP at 1.40, and 14th in BAA at .251.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have won their last two games played. In their last game played on Wednesday, Nolan Gorman hit a tie-breaking home run for the second straight game. This time, he drove a sinker to the left field seats for his 4th home of the season and a 6-4 lead. Paul Goldschmidt then added an RBI double against Conor Seabold in the 9th inning.

Left-hander Jordan Montgomery will make his second home start of the season. In his first start, Montgomery allowed three runs in six innings against the Blue Jays. Montgomery pitched once against the Pirates last season. In that game, he allowed two runs while recording six strikeouts in six innings. He posted a 4.38 ERA last season with a WHIP of 1.09.

The Cardinals have scored 49 runs this season, tied for 21st in the league. They are 4th in batting average at .286, 2nd in OBP at .358, and 9th in slugging at .433. The St. Louis pitching staff is tied for 22 with an ERA of 5.06. They are also 26th in quality starts, 28th in WHIP at 1.58, and 30th in BAA at .298

Pirates vs Cardinals  Prediction

The Pirates are 18-41 in their last 59 games played against the Cardinals. Pittsburgh is also 3-8 in the last 11 games played in St. Louis.

Pittsburgh Pirates betting trends:

St. Louis Cardinals betting trend:

  • Moneyline Odds: Pirates +221, Cardinal -247
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/13/2023

Montgomery had a successful 2022 campaign and he will look to continue that trend on Thursday against a struggling Pittsburgh offense. Although the Cardinals have not been able to score a lot of runs ( T-21 ), St. Louis has been able to make consistent contact with the ball.

But the Cardinals head home after putting up 16 total runs in their last two games, both wins over the Colorado Rockies. I think the momentum from those two games will carry forward on Thursday night. With confidence in their hitting, they should be able to score more than enough runs to win this game.

Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals

Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under Prediction

The over is 3-1-1 in the last five games played between these two teams. The total has gone over in four out of their last five head-to-head meetings in St. Louis.

Pittsburgh Pirates over/under trends:

St. Louis Cardinals over/under trends:

  • Over/Under Odds: Over 8 (-110), Under 8 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/13/2023

The Cardinals’ offense scored 20 total runs during their previous three-game series against the Rockies. They are going up against a Pittsburgh pitching staff that conceded 19 runs over their last three games played.

Although the Pirates have not exactly been a good hitting team, they are coming off a 7-run win two games ago. Pittsburgh is also a team that can hit the ball out of the ballpark and they tied for 8th in home runs this season. I expect both teams to score enough runs to push the score over the total.

Prediction: Over 8

The Washington Nationals play the Los Angeles Angels in Game 2 of their three-game set at Angel Stadium.

Washington stunned Los Angeles 6-4 in Game 1 on Monday night. Jeimer Candelario and CJ Abrams drove two runs each as the Nationals racked up 14 hits to beat the Angels at their home field.

Every Washington batter in the starting lineup had a hit including five with two hits each. Candelario tied the game at 4 apiece with a two-run single in the 4th while Abrams drove home the go-ahead run with a grounder in the 5th inning.

Hunter Renfroe hit a home run in a third straight game and Luis Rengifo had an early two-run double for the Angels who lost back-to-back games for the first time this season.

Washington Nationals

Prior to Monday’s Game 1 between these two teams, the Nationals were 21st with 40 runs scored this season. Washington is also 8th in batting average at .265, 11th in on-base percentage at .336, and 23rd in slugging at .363. Their pitching staff is just 25th in ERA at 5.42, tied for 15th with 2 quality starts, 22nd in WHIP at 1.44, and 28th in BAA at .281.

Josiah Gray will open on top of the mound for the Nationals on Tuesday. The 25-year-old right-hander is 0-2 with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.64 in two appearances this season. Gray surrendered five runs during his first start of the season against the Atlanta Braves. He however bounced back with a strong start against the Rockies the last time out, allowing only one run on 8 hits last Thursday.

Last season Gray posted a 7-10 record with an ERA of 5.02, an FIP of 5.86, and a WHIP of 1.36 with a K/BB ratio of 154/66. He led the majors in home runs allowed at 38 and the National League in walks. He pitched once against the Angels last season and earned a win while conceding three earned runs on five hits with two home runs in 5.1 innings of work.

Los Angeles Angels

Before Monday’s games, the Angels ranked 4th in runs scored with 54. They are also 17th in batting at .244 and 12th in on-base percentage and slugging at .333 and .428, respectively. Their pitching staff ranks 11th overall with an ERA of 4.05, tied for 4th with 4 quality starts, 9th in WHIP at 1.26, and 12th in BAA at .242.

Shohei Ohtani is 1-0 with an ERA of 0.75, WHIP of 1.00, and an 18/7 K/BB ratio. Ohtani threw six scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Athletics on opening day. Last April 5, the dual-threat superstar allowed one run in a 4-3 win over the Seattle Mariners.

Ohtani was dominating on the mound last season as he posted an impressive 15-9 record with a 2.33 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of 219/44 across 166 innings pitched. This marks the first time in his career that Ohtani will pitch against the Washington National.

Nationals vs Angels Betting Prediction

The Nationals are 4-9 in their last 13 games played against the Angels. Washington is also 2-6 in their last 8 games played in Los Angeles.

Washington Nationals betting trends:

Los Angeles Angels betting trends:

  • Moneyline Odds: Nationals +245, Angels -275
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/11/2023

Ohtani is off to a strong start on the mound this season. In two appearances, he has pitched 12 innings and has allowed only one earned run on five hits with 7 walks and 18 strikeouts. The Mariners managed to get only five hits in six innings against Ohtani last week. With Seattle being the better team than the Nationals, I expect another strong outing from Ohtani on Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, Josiah Gray heads to this matchup coming off a solid performance at Coors Field. However, the Angels have slugged 15 home runs over their first 9 games of the 2023 MLB season. Gray has surrendered 3 home runs in his first two starts of the season. Look for the Angels to give him trouble all game long.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels -275.

Nationals vs Angels Over/Under Prediction

The under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played between these two teams. The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played between these two teams in Los Angeles.

Washington Nationals over/under trends:

Los Angeles Angels over/under trends:

  • Over/Under Odds: Over 8.5 (-110), Under 8.5 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/11/2023

Ohtani could easily shut down the Nationals but I expect the Angels to let him throw until the 6th, or probably the 7th inning at the max. My problem is that the Washington pitching staff could allow a ton of runs, especially if the bottom of the bullpen gets on the mound down the stretch.

The Angels’ bullpen holds an ERA of 4.45 with a 3.52 FIP across 32.1 innings pitched this season. On the other hand, the Nationals bullpen owns a terrible 5.45 ERA with a FIP of 5.30 in 36.1 frames worked.

Even if the Angels hold down the Nationals’ scoring here, Los Angeles is going to get plenty of opportunities to score. Remember this is a team that has scored at least seven runs in four out of their last six games and currently ranks 4th in the majors with 54 runs scored. Give me these teams to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 8.5

The Los Angeles Dodgers will attempt to bounce back from a poor performance against Arizona when they travel to Oracle Park to open a 3-game series against their rival San Francisco Giants on Monday night.

The Dodgers dropped to 5-5 on the season after going 1-3 against the Diamondbacks in Arizona during their previous series. Los Angeles beat Arizona 5-2 in the series opener but they surrendered 29 total runs while losing the last 3 games of the series.

The Giants are 4-5 to start the season and they went 1-2 in their last series against the Kansas City Royals. San Francisco lost the first two games of that series by giving up a total of 9 runs but outscored Kansas City 3-1 to win Game 3 and avoid getting blanked.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles opened the season by splitting their four-game home series against the Diamondbacks then swept the Rockies in a two-game set. But after going just 1-3 during their last 4-game series in Arizona, they are just a mediocre 5-5 to start the current campaign.

The Dodgers rank 16th in MLB in batting average at .251. They will be facing a San Francisco pitching staff that is ranked just 17th in ERA at 4.57 on the year.

Superstar left-hander Julio Urias will open the series for the Dodgers on Monday night. Urias allowed just two earned runs on four hits in six innings pitched versus Arizona in his first start then threw six shutout innings against Colorado in his second outing of the season. He posted a 2.16 ERA in 31 starts for the Dodgers last season.

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco continues its tough opening schedule with a three-game set versus the Dodgers. The Giants faced the Yankees in a three-game series to open their season. Next up was a three-game set opposite the White Sox. They then went 1-2 versus the Kansas City Royals in their most recent series.

The Dodgers rank 11th in the majors in batting average at .261. They are facing a Dodgers pitching unit that is 8th in ERA at 3.76 in the young season.

Opening on top of the mound on Monday will be right-hander Logan Webb. Webb has allowed four earned runs in each of his two appearances so far this season. He gave up nine hits against the White Sox last Tuesday and he is 0-2 with an ERA of 6.75 on the year. Webb started 32 games last season and posted an ERA of 2.90.

Dodgers vs Giants Prediction:

The Dodgers are 19-7 in their last 26 games played against the Giants. Los Angeles is also 7-0 in their last seven games played in San Francisco.

Los Angeles Dodgers betting trends:

San Francisco Giants betting trends:

  • Moneyline Odds: Dodgers -151, Giants +139
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/10/2023

The Dodgers have a three-game losing streak. However, they have the ‘right’ starter to get them back on track on Monday night. Urias has started the season hot as he is 2-0 with an ERA of 1.50 on the season. Last season, Urias was outstanding on the road with 11 wins and an ERA of below 2 in 17 starts away from home. He should have a good game against a San Francisco team that hit just .237 against left-handed pitchers last season.

Meanwhile, Webb has been very good with his K/9 ratio this season at over 13 per game. However, he has allowed more hits than innings pitched this season and has surrendered multiple home runs this season.

Given Webb’s vulnerabilities to start the year, I expect the Dodgers’ bats to come alive on Monday night as they pull out the road win for their ace.

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers vs Giants Over/Under Prediction

The under is also 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in San Francisco.

Los Angeles Dodgers over/under trends:

San Francisco Giants over/under trends:

  • Over/Under Odds: Over 7.5 (-110), Under 7.5 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/10/2023

The Giants have seen the total go over in 12 out of their last 17 games played dating back to the previous season. Meanwhile, the over is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ last five games played. It is also 3-1-1 in its last five games against an opposing starter with a WHIP greater than 1.50.

I expect Urias to pitch well and he should be able to hold the Giants scoreless for several innings but I don’t expect a shutout performance from him. But I’m not saying that it’s Urias who will help the score go over the total.

It’s Logan Webb that I am talking about. Webb has looked bad in each of his first two starts of the season. He has allowed four earned runs in two appearances and will be facing a Dodgers team that has scored 14 total runs in their last two games played. Give me these teams to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 7.5

The New York Knicks look to stay hot as the regular season is coming to a close. They visit the surging New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center on Friday night.

New York is 47-33 SU on the season and will finish as the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference. They will face No.4 Cleveland in the opening round of the playoffs but still have two regular season games to complete. The Knicks are on a five-game winning streak.

New Orleans is 41-39 SU on the season and is tied with the Lakers in terms of record. However, L.A. owns the tiebreaker so the Pelicans are just 8th in the current Western Conference team standings. With two games left to play, they hope to finish higher than the Lakers to get a home-court edge in the play-in tournament game.

New York Knicks

The Knicks gun for their sixth straight win on Friday night. New York will also try to sweep their season series with the Pelicans. They are already set as the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs but coach Tom Thibodeau is hoping to keep his boys sharp heading to the playoffs.

In their last game, the Knicks defeated the Indiana Pacers behind 39 points from Immanuel Quickley. In that game, Quentin Grimes also scored a career-best 36 points while Obi Toppin added 32. New York scored 138 points in that game while making 52% of their shots and 39.1% of their three-pointers attempted.

RJ Barrett is listed as questionable for Friday while Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle have been ruled out of the game with injuries.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans assured themselves of a spot in the play-in tournament by beating the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night. New Orleans can still go up the ladder if they win their last two games so this game will be more important for them than it is for the Knicks who are locked as the 5th seed already.

New Orleans recovered in overtime to beat the Memphis Grizzlies in their last game. Herbert Jones led the Pelicans with 35 points and seven rebounds while veteran guard CJ McCollum finished with 31 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. Trey Murphy III who made 2 big three-pointers in OT, also scored 30 points for New Orleans.

In that game, they also scored 138 points while shooting 50% from the floor and a very high 53.8% from three-point distance.

Knicks vs Pelicans SU Prediction

The Knicks are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Pelicans. New York is also 3-1 SU in their last 4 games played in New Orleans.

New York Knicks SU trends:

New Orleans Pelicans SU trends:

  • Moneyline Odds: Knicks +250, Pelicans -300
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/07/2023

The Knicks’ playoff status is already set with still two games left to play in their regular season. The Pelicans meanwhile, clinched a play-in tournament spot but they still don’t know who they will be playing because it’s a tight race in the Western Conference.

New Orleans defeated Memphis 138-131 on Wednesday night to assure themselves of at least 9th place in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are currently in the 8th spot, tied with the L.A. Lakers at 41-39 but the Lakers own the tiebreaker. With still two games left to play, the Pelicans can still move up.

On Wednesday night, the Pelicans trailed by 19 points late in the second quarter but surged ahead in the 4th quarter but lost a six-point lead with 5 seconds left. The game went to overtime where thankfully, Trey Murphy III made two three-pointers that enabled the Pelicans to score the first 10 points of the extra period and take control of the game.

The Knicks will be the 5th seed in the East and will take on the No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers. Leading scorer Julius Randle remains sidelined and will miss their remaining two regular season games with an ankle sprain. Guard Jalen Brunson sat out New York’s 138-129 win over the Indiana Pacers last Wednesday while RJ Barrett has missed the team’s last two games with an undisclosed illness.

Against Indiana, it was Sixth Man of the Year candidate Immanuel Quickley who led the Knicks with 39 points. Quentin Grimes added a career-high 36 points for New York. Obi Toppin also had a big night with 32 points while Mitchell Robinson had 14 points and 16 rebounds as the Knicks held a 52-37 advantage off the glass.

So despite New York already being set for the postseason, Friday’s game will still be important to keep the momentum going and sharpen their game for the playoffs. New Orleans though, needs it more badly and that could be the difference here.

New York has played well as of late despite missing their big stars. However, they have not played a team that is still fighting for playoff positioning during that stretch. New Orleans wants this game more than they do and the Knicks still don’t have their big guns. Give me the Pelicans to win this war of attrition.

Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans

Knicks vs Pelicans ATS Prediction

New York is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New Orleans.

New York Knicks ATS trends:

New Orleans Pelicans ATS trends:

  • Spread Odds: Knicks +7.5 (-110), Pelicans -7.5 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/07/2023

The Knicks have won five straight games but remember that thee of the wins during that stretch were against the Rockets, Wizards, and Pacers. Against those teams, guys like Quickley, Grimes, and Toppin have looked good while giving the Knicks the “W”. However, the Pelicans are a different team.

New Orleans has played well too and they head to this game with eight wins in their last 10 games played. They are 3-1 in their last four games with wins over the Nuggets, Clippers, and Grizzlies during that stretch. The Pelicans need the win to try and finish higher than the 7th seed and after Wednesday’s wild win versus No. 2 Memphis, they have the momentum.

Prediction: Pelicans

Knicks vs Pelicans Over/Under Prediction

The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.

New York Knicks over/under trends:

New Orleans Pelicans over/under trends:

  • Over/Under Odds: Over 229.5 (-110), Under 229.5 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/07/2023

The Knicks are scoring 115.9 points per game this season, including 115 points per game on the road. They scored an average of 114 points per game in their last three games played against the Pelicans. New York plays at a slow pace and averages just 101.8 possessions per game.

New Orleans is giving up 110.1 points per game at home this season but they surrendered 120 or more in two out of their last three home games played so the Pelicans’ defense hasn’t been at its best as of late. Their offense, however, has offset that as they have scored at least 122 points in two out of their last 3 games including 138 versus Memphis the last time out.

The Pelicans play at a very fast pace and are averaging 103.2 possessions per game. With New York’s defense surrendering 118 points per game in their last 3 games played, this should help the Pelicans score tons of points on Friday night. The total has gone over in five out of the last six head-to-head meetings between these two teams. This one won’t be any different.

Prediction: Over 229.5

The Miami Heat visit the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday night at the Wells Fargo Center.

Miami is still trying to get back to the Top 6 after dropping to 7th place. The Heat have won two in a row but are just 6-4 SU in their last 10 games. Miami is 42-37 SU on the year and are 1.5 games behind the 6th-seeded Nets but are also just 1.5 games up on the 8th-seeded Hawks.

Philadelphia looks secured in their spot as the No. 3 seed in the East. The Sixers are 2.5 games behind No. 2 Boston but are also 2.5 games up on No. 4 Cleveland. The Sixers head to this contest with a mediocre 5-5 SU record in their last 10 games played but they are coming off a big 103-101 win over Boston in their last game played.

Miami Heat

The Heat looked headed for disaster when they closed the month of March with three straight losses that dropped them outside the Top 6 in the Eastern Conference. But Miami recovered just in time and have won two in a row heading to this game. They, however, will be hard-pressed to get back to the 6th spot but right now, they still have a mathematical chance if they win out.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 27 points as they beat the Detroit Pistons 118-105. One game earlier, Butler put up 35 as Miami upset the Dallas Mavericks at 2.5 point underdog last Saturday.

Miami is 22-27 SU against the Eastern Conference. They are at the bottom of the East rankings as far as fastbreak points are concerned at only 11.4 per game. Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per game for the Heat.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers were red-hot to start March and they had an 8-game winning streak last month which included wins over the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers. But they lost four out of their next five games to fall out of the race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. They have won three out of their last four games played to virtually lock up the No. 3 seed in the conference.

Joel Embiid waxed hot in their last game, scoring 52 points on 20-25 shooting with 13 rebounds in a 103-101 win over Boston. Embiid is now the heavy -900 betting favorite to win the 2023 NBA MVP award. But he may want one more big performance to lock up the award, at least at the sportsbooks.

Philly is 32-17 SU against the Eastern Conference this season. They rank 7th in the conference with 25.0 assists per game and are led by James Harden’s 10.8 dimes per contest. Tobias Harris has put up 14.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game for the Sixers.

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers 4/6/23 SU Prediction

The Heat are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Sixers. Miami is 5-13 SU in their last 18 games played in Philadelphia.

Miami Heat SU trends:

Philadelphia 76ers SU trends:

  • Moneyline Odds: Heat +150, Sixers -1700
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/06/2023

The Heat were one win away from returning to the NBA Finals last season. But this year has been a struggle and with the regular season entering its final week, Miami is in 7th place in the East and would need to win a play-in tournament game just to enter the postseason. The Heat however can still move up to No. 6 but they need to win their remaining games and hope to get help from other teams.

As of Wednesday, Miami trails Brooklyn by one game and the Nets own the tiebreaker against them so they would have to better the Nets’ record. That won’t be easy but it is still possible. But the Heat have to beat the Sixers on Thursday night.

Miami has won two in a row after a three-game losing streak. In their last game, they defeated the Detroit Pistons 118-105 with Jimmy Butler scoring 18 of his 27 points in the fourth quarter to seal the deal. In an interview, Butler said that the Heat isn’t obsessed about catching up with the Nets and they are good at wherever they will finish the regular season.

Meanwhile, the Sixers are 2.5 games behind the Celtics with three to play. Philly cut Boston’s lead by beating them 103-101 in their last game. Joel Embiid scored 52 points in that game, marking his 5th career 50-point game. Embiid shot 20-25 from the floor on Tuesday night and heads to this game looking to make one more big statement in the MVP race.

Embiid however, hasn’t been displaying his MVP numbers against the Heat. In his last six games against Miami, including four in last season’s playoffs, he averaged only 21.3 points per game and has scored over 25 points only once during that stretch. If the Sixers want to win on Thursday, Embiid must be at his best.

The Sixers are obviously the better team this season. However, entering Thursday night, the Heat may be the hungrier team and have more to play for. Miami is worth the risk here. Prediction: Miami Heat +150

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers 4/6/23 ATS Prediction

The Heat are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the 76ers. Miami is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games played in Philadelphia.

Miami Heat ATS trends:

Philadelphia 76ers ATS trends:

  • Spread Odds: Heat +4 (-110), Sixers -4 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/06/2023

The Sixers have won five out of their last six games played. Philadelphia is 29-11 in 40 home games played this season. Meanwhile, the Heat have covered the betting spread once in their last six games played. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five games played overall.

However, Philly is 2.5 games behind Boston with only 3 games left to play. That makes it too difficult to catch up now. Having said that, the Sixers are also 2.5 games up of the No. 4 Cavaliers so they are pretty much locked up in that No. 3 spot. With nothing much to play for, Doc Rivers might end up giving his star players some rest on Thursday night rather than risk injury.

Meanwhile, Miami still has a mathematical chance of moving up to the 6th spot while also trying not to fall to No. 8. That means this game may be more important to them than to the Sixers. I’ll take my chance on the team that has more motive to win this game. Prediction: Heat +4

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers 4/6/23 Over/Under Prediction

The under is 4-0 in the last four games played between these two teams. The under is also 2-1 in their last three games played in Philadelphia.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

Philadelphia 76ers over/under trends:

  • Over/Under Odds: Over 221.5 (-110), Under 221.5 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/06/2023

These are two of the Top 3 defensive teams in the NBA. They are also among the bottom in pace, with the Sixers ranked 27th and the Heat at No. 29. Philly has gone under four times in their last five games played. And these teams have gone under five times in their last six head-to-head meetings. With the playoffs almost here, I expect both teams to start showing that defensive intensity if they haven’t done so yet. Thursday should be another defensive battle between these Eastern Conference rivals.

Prediction: Under 221.5

The Los Angeles Lakers look to move up the team standing even further when they take on the Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City on Tuesday night.

Los Angeles has moved up to the 7th spot in the Western Conference team and they are now just one-half game from an outright playoff spot. The Lakers have won their last three games played and are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played and 7-3 SU in their last 1o games played overall.

Utah has dropped to the 12th spot in the Western Conference team standings as they have struggled in their last 7 games played, with only one win during that stretch. The Jazz now find themselves 1.5 games off the 10th-seeded OKC Thunder and 2.5 games behind the 9th-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves. Utah has dropped its last two and is just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers look to extend their hot streak. Los Angeles is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played and has won their last three games to vault to the 7th spot in the latest Western Conference team standings. After a big win in Houston, the Lakers hit the road again and head to Utah.

The Lakers are 8th in the NBA in scoring at 116.7 points per game this season. They are shooting 48.1% from the field and 34.2% from three-point distance, while also making 77.6% of their foul shots. Los Angeles is grabbing 45.6 rebounds per contest and has recorded a total of 1,965 assists per game. The Lakers are also averaging 14.1 turnovers while committing 18.0 fouls per game.

On the opposite end of the court, the Lakers are forcing opponents to 12.7 turnovers per game and they are drawing 21.6 fouls per contest. They are 14th in assists allowed at 1,998 and are allowing opponents to shoot 46.8% from the field and 34.3% from deep. Los Angeles’ opponents are grabbing an average of 45.0 boards per contest and conceded 116.4 points per game 19th overall in the league this season.

Utah Jazz

Meanwhile, Utah tries to keep its slim playoff hopes alive when they host the Lakers on Tuesday night. The Jazz have lost six out of their last seven games played, including a 111-110 defeat against the Brooklyn Nets last Sunday. In that game, the Jazz rallied from 23 points down but were not able to complete the comeback.

The Jazz are scoring 117.1 points per game this season. They are 19th overall in field goal percentage at 47.2% while making 78.6% of their free throw. Utah is 10th in the NBA in passing at 25.8 assists per game and are pulling down 45.8 rebounds per contest. They are committing 15.4 turnovers per game and 20.4 fouls per outing.

Defensively, Utah is 24th in scoring defense at 117.8 points per game allowed. The Jazz are forcing 12.6 turnovers per game and allowing opponents to shoot 47.6% from the field and 36.2% from behind the three-point arc. Opposing teams are also shooting 77.7% from the free throw line when playing the Jazz. They are surrendering 24.8 assists and 43.3 boards grabbed per contest.

The Jazz are dealing with several injuries right now which could be a factor in the outcome of this game:

Los Angeles Lakers vs Utah Jazz 4/4/23 SU Prediction

The Lakers are 1-3 SU in their last 4 games played against the Jazz. Los Angeles is 1-3 SU in their last four games played in Salt Lake City.

Los Angeles Lakers SU trends:

Utah Jazz SU trends:

  • Moneyline Odds: Lakers -325, Jazz +270
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/04/2023

Don’t look now but the Los Angeles Lakers are just one-half game behind both the 5th-seeded L.A. Clippers and 6th-seeded Golden State Warriors with one week left to go in the regular season. The Lakers are currently in 7th place and with still four games left to play, they aren’t discounting the possibility of entering the postseason outright.

The Lakers have won their last three games and are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games played overall. Anthony Davis is coming off a 40-point performance against the Houston Rockets the last time out while LeBron James recorded a triple-double in that game. If the Lakers’ stars continue to play this well, they are going to be a tough team to beat, whether it’s in the play-in or playoffs.

Despite losing six out of their last seven games played, the Utah Jazz are still in the hunt for a play-in seat. They have their work cut out for them as they are now 1.5 games behind the 10th-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder and one-half game behind 11th-seeded Dallas. After Tuesday’s game, Utah will play the Lakers again on Sunday for their regular season finale.

Regardless of what happens, this will be considered a successful season in Utah. The Jazz were supposed to be in rebuild mode after trading both Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert before the start of the season. In their last game, the Jazz lost to the Brooklyn Nets 111-110 after rallying from a 23-point deficit.

While it’s AD and LeBron whom the Jazz should be wary about, the Lakers need to tame former player Talen Horton-Tucker who has scored 101 total points in his last 3 games played. Horton Tucker scored 41 points in a win over the San Antonio Spurs and he scored 15 of his 32 points during the 4th quarter of last Sunday’s failed comeback bid against the Nets.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Talen racked up on this three-game road trip <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/PerformanceLeader?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#PerformanceLeader</a> | <a href=”https://twitter.com/UofUHealth?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>@uofuhealth</a> <a href=”https://t.co/z00R23JRUa”>pic.twitter.com/z00R23JRUa</a></p>&mdash; Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) <a href=”https://twitter.com/utahjazz/status/1642657472195313665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>April 2, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

Both teams are trending in opposite direction right now. The Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season and are slowly gaining confidence. For as long as Anthony Davis stays in the game, he will be tough to defend in this matchup. If AD has another big game, it will open up opportunities for the rest of the team, including LBJ.

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

Lakers vs Jazz ATS Prediction

The Lakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games played against the Jazz. Los Angeles is also 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games played in Utah.

Los Angeles Lakers ATS trends:

Utah Jazz ATS trends:

  • Spread Odds: Lakers -8 (-110), Jazz +8 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/04/2023

Four out of the Lakers’ last five wins have been by double digits, including wins over the Suns, Bulls, and Timberwolves. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in their last five games played. They are playing terrific basketball right now.

Utah is 4-1 ATS in their last five games played and have covered against the Kings, Celtics, and Nets during that span. However, the Jazz may be undermanned here with the potential players that could sit out this game.

Given how both teams have played as of late, I will have to go with the Lakers.

Prediction: Lakers -8

Lakers vs Jazz Over/Under Prediction

The over is 6-4 in the last 10 games played between these two teams. The over is 4-1 in their last 5 games played in Utah.

Los Angeles Lakers over/under trends:

Utah Jazz over/under trends:

  • Over/Under Odds: Over 234.5 (-110), Under 234.5 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 04/04/2023

These teams have combined to score an average of 244.0 points per game in their last three head to head meetings. The Lakers have scored at least 121 points four times in their last six games played and in each of their previous three outings. The Jazz have conceded at least 121 points five times in their last eight games payed. Give me both teams to hit the over in this game.

Prediction: Over 234.5

Two teams that could end up meeting in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs meet on Thursday night in Mile High.

New Orleans is 9th in the latest Western Conference team standings although they have the same record as the 8th-seeded Lakers at 38-38. The Pelicans are also in Danger of falling outside the Top 10 with the 11th-seeded Dallas Mavericks just 1.5 games behind them. They are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played.

Denver is close to clinching the first top seed in franchise history. At 51-24 SU, the Nuggets are 3.5 games ahead of the 2nd-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. They only have 7 games left to play and barring any major collapse, they should be able to accomplish that.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans have picked up some momentum during their road trip. They won five in a row before losing to the Golden State Warriors in their last game. New Orleans’ 5-1 SU record during that stretch is tied for the best during that span. The other team with a 5-1 L-6 games record? The Denver Nuggets.

New Orleans has gotten the job done with impressive defense. During that period, the Pelicans posted a defensive rating of 102.0 points per 100 possessions, easily the best in the league during that span. The Pelicans have also heated up as of late, averaging 120.0 points per 100 possessions in their last 3 games played. During that period, they led the NBA in a three-point shooting percentage at 44%.

Denver Nuggets

Denver began the month of March struggling to find its bearings. The Nuggets went 1-5 during a six-game stretch from March 8 to 18th. The biggest issue during that period was their defense which allowed opponents to shoot 50.8% from the floor. However, Denver has gotten its bearings back and they have since won four in a row.

One of the major concerns for Denver in this game is reigning MVP and top NBA candidate Nikola Jokic who is listed as questionable with a calf injury. Jokic is averaging 24.9 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 9.9 assists per game this season. Jamal Murray is putting up 19.6 points per game over his last 10 games played.

Pelicans vs Nuggets SU Prediction

The Pelicans are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Nuggets. New Orleans is also 1-3 SU in their last four games played in Denver.

New Orleans Pelicans SU trends:

Denver Nuggets SU trends:

  • Moneyline Odds: Pelicans +240, Nuggets -300
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 03/30/2023

The Pelicans entered Wednesday’s games in 8th place in the Western Conference team standings. After Wednesday’s games, they dropped to the 9th spot even without playing a game. That’s how volatile the Western Conference team standings are right now with only three teams clinching a playoff spot.

Having said that, every game is important for the Pelicans as a loss could mean the difference between getting a lottery pick and making the 2023 playoffs. With seven games left to play, the Nuggets are 3.5 games ahead of the second-seeded Grizzlies in the race for the top spot in the West, and barring any major collapse, they should clinch their first-ever top seed in the West playoffs.

New Orleans had a five-game winning streak snapped when they lost to the Golden State Warriors the last time out. The Pelicans were up by 20 points in that game only to lose by 11. Despite Zion Williamson being on the injured list, the Pelicans are still in the playoff hunt. Zion has missed the team’s last 39 games and he will be evaluated on April 5th.

Jonas Valanciunas has been big for New Orleans as he averaged 17.4 points and 16.0 rebounds per game during their five-game winning streak. Valanciunas will be tasked to contain two-time MVP and leading MVP contender Nikola Jokic on Wednesday night.

Denver is coming off a game against Philadelphia where they nearly blew a big lead. The Nuggets were up by 14 points with 3:25 left in the game but Mike Malone had to put back his starters as the Sixers got to within one possession. After this home game, Denver will finish the regular season with four out of their last six games played on the road. The two home games will be against playoff teams Sacramento and Golden State.

The Pelicans had a five-game winning streak as of late but four of those wins came against Houston, San Antonio, Charlotte, and Portland so it’s not as impressive as it first looks. The Nuggets have been solid all season long and while they have almost locked up the West, they would want to keep that momentum going into the playoff. I still expect the Nuggets to try and win this game.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets +300

Pelicans vs Nuggets ATS Prediction

New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in Denver.

New Orleans Pelicans ATS trends:

Denver Nuggets ATS trends:

  • Spread Odds: Pelicans +7.5 (-110), Nuggets -7.5 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 03/30/2023

Although the Pelicans are coming off a loss, they won five in a row before that and did so with a +108 combined differential in those five games played. New Orleans needs this win more than Denver does.

This is the first of a back-to-back schedule for the Nuggets, with Denver playing Phoenix on Thursday night. There’s a chance that Malone rests Jokic here or doesn’t play his main man his usual minutes. I’m not sure that the Pelicans win this game. But I’ll take the plus points because I am confident that they should be able to cover the spread.

Prediction: New Orlean Pelicans +7.5

Pelicans vs Nuggets Over/Under Prediction

The under is 9-3 in the last 12 games played between these two teams. The under is also 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Denver.

New Orleans Pelicans over/under trends:

Denver Nuggets over/under trends:

  • Over/Under Odds: Over 236.5 (-110), Under 236.5 (-110)
  • Odds from BetOnline as of 03/30/2023

The Pelicans have allowed more than 110 points only once in their last six games played. They have also gone over 236 points twice in their last 10 games played. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have conceded 111 or fewer points five times in their last six games played. Denver has seen the total go over 236 points only thrice in their last 10 games played.

These teams have combined to score an average of 226.8 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 219..67 points per game in their last three games played. I think this will be a high-scoring game but I think the total is too high, even for these two teams.

Prediction: Under 236.5