Southeast Division rivals Miami and Washington will collide on Monday night at the Capital One Arena in Washington.
The Heat are the no. 1 team in the Southeast Division and the Eastern Conference at 34-20 SU on the season. The Heat head to this game with a 6-4 SU record in their last 10 games played and they have won their last two games. In their most recent assignment, the Heat defeated the Charlotte Hornets 104-86 last Saturday night.
Washington is 24-28 SU on the season and they are 4th in the Southeast Division, 9 games behind the Heat. The Wizards are outside the Top 10 as the 11th ranked team but are just one-half game behind the 10th seeded Atlanta. Washington is just 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played. The Wizards are coming off a 95-80 loss to the Phoenix Suns.
Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 27 points against the Hornets while Bam Adebayo had a double-double with 20 points and 12 rebounds. Tyler Herro added 19 points with 5 three-pointers for Miami which scored 27 points off 20 Hornets turnovers. The Heat also held the Hornets to 38.4% field goal shooting.
The Heat are 16th in the NBA in scoring at 108.7 points per game scored this season. They are 17th in rebounding at 44.6 boards grabbed per contest and 6th in passing at 25.9 assists per game. Miami has the league’s 5th best scoring defense at 104.2 points per game allowed.
Montrezl Harrell led the Wizards with 15 points and 7 rebounds while Aaron Holiday was the only other Washington player to score in double-digits at 11 points. Kyle Kuzman struggled on 3-12 shooting with 9 points while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored just 8 on 3-9 shooting for the Wizards who were without Bradley Beal again.
Washington ranks 22nd in the league in scoring at 106.9 points per game this season. They are 19th in rebounding at 44.3 board pulled down per contest, and 17th in passing at 23.9 assists per game. The Wizards are 17th in scoring defense at 109.7 points per game conceded.
Miami is 11-5 SU in their last 16 games played. The Heat are 16-14 SU in 30 road games played this season, and 6-1 SU in their last seven games against the Southeast Division.
Washington is 1-7 SU in their last eight games played. The Wizards are 13-13 SU in 26 home games played this season, 4-2 in their last six games against the Southeast Division, and 8-4 SU in their last 12 games played in February.
Head to head, the Heat have won seven out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
Washington has dropped seven out of its last eight games played and have lost five in a row at home heading to this contest. They have not been a very good offensive team this season and have struggled even more without Bradley Beal. Washington has scored 98 or fewer points in three out of their last four games played and have shot in the low 40’s.
The Heat snapped a three-game losing skid and have won back-to-back games heading to this contest. Miami’s last two wins have been by an aggregate margin of 35 points and seem to be on a roll right now.
Miami looks to be in better shape than Washington right now. Without Beal, they are offensively challenged against a Miami defense that is one of the best in the NBA. I’m taking the Heat to win this matchup.
Prediction: Miami Heat
Miami is 2-4 ATS in their last six games played. The Heat are 17-13 ATS in 30 road games played this season, 8-1 ATS in their last nine February games, 4-1 ATS in their last five road games as betting favorites, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as favorites, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against an opponent with a losing straight up record, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS win, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day rest.
Washington is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played. The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games played at home, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs, 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after an ATS loss, 1-5 ATS in their last six games after a straight-up loss, 1-5 ATS in their last six games as betting underdogs, 1-5 ATS in their last six games against an opponent with a winning straight up record, 1-6 ATS when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, and 0-4 ATS in their last four games when playing on one day rest.
Washington has struggled with Bradley Beal out. They have scored 98 or fewer points four times in their last six games played and have shot 41% from the field during that span. Unfortunately for them, Miami is an excellent defensive squad and that should worsen their scoring woes in this game.
Meanwhile, the Heat have been in an offensive groove as of late, scoring 100 or more points four times in their last seven games played. The Heat are shooting 47% from the field in their last three games played and are facing a Wizards team that ranks among the bottom in the league in scoring defense.
Look for the Heat to cover the spread as well.
Prediction: Miami Heat -6
The total has gone over in seven out of the last nine games played by the Heat. The over is 8-3 in Miami’s last 11 road games, 6-2 in their last eight games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, 10-4 in their last 14 games when playing on one day rest, and 10-4 in their last 14 games against an opponent with a losing straight up record.
The total has gone under in the Wizards’ last four games played. The under is 4-0 in Washington’s last four games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game, 7-0 in their last seven games as betting underdogs, 4-0 in their last four games as home underdogs, 7-1 in their last eight games after a straight-up loss, and 6-1 in their last seven games after an ATS loss.
Miami is one of the top OVER teams in the NBA with an OVER record of 33-21 on the season. However, the Heat are just 16th in the league in scoring at 108.7 points per game scored and have the NBA’s 5th best scoring defense at 104.4 points per game allowed.
Washington is worse than Miami in scoring at only 22nd in the entire NBA at 106.9 points per game scored. The Wizards meanwhile rank 17th in scoring defense at 109.7 points per game allowed. However, the UNDER is 26-24-2 in their 52 games this season and 3-7 in their last 10 games played.
The Wizards have failed to hit 100 points in four out of their last six outings. Because of that, Miami won’t need to flex its offensive muscles much in this game. Meanwhile, the Heat defense will dictate the tempo of this game. With Miami getting the needed stops, this should be a low-scoring affair.
Prediction: Under 216
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