The Milwaukee Brewers play the St. Louis Cardinals in the second game of their current series at Busch Stadium on Wednesday night.
Milwaukee blanked St. Louis 2-0 in Tuesday’s Game 1 to take a 4-3 lead in their season series.
Before that, the Cardinals won two out of their last three meetings, outsourcing the Brewers by a total score of 9-5 during that span.
The Brewers are the dominant team in the NL Central division with a record of 73-47. They are currently 8.5 games ahead of the second-place Cincinnati Reds right now and they have lost just once in their last eight games with a current three-game winning streak heading to Game 2.
Milwaukee ranks 18th in the majors with an OPS of .718. They are, however, averaging 4.66 runs per game scored and have been hitting well this month with a slash line of .268/.322/.477 in 14 games played. Eduardo Escobar has been terrific since being traded from the Arizona Diamondbacks. In 15 games with Milwaukee, Escobar has an OPS of .917 with two home runs and 9 RBI.
Freddy Peralta will start for the Brewers in Game 2. Peralta has a record of 9-3 with an ERA of 2.26 and a WHIP of 0.91 this season with 162 strikeouts. Peralta pitched a seven-inning shutout against the Cardinals back in May. However, his bullpen failed him and he did not get the win in that terrific effort.
Prior to their loss to the Brewers in Game 1 of the series, the Cardinals had a six-game winning streak and had won back-to-back series sweeps against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals. They are 61-57 on the season and 3rd in the NL Central, 11 games off the Brewers. However, they are just four games from the 2nd wild card spot in the National League and still have a chance to catch up.
St. Louis has an OPS of .704 this season and they are scoring an average of 4.12 runs per game. In their last 24 outings, the Cardinals have improved their scoring average to 4.88 runs per game. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt leads the team with a .789 OPS with 68 RBI and 18 home runs while stealing nine total bases.
The Cardinals’ pitching ace Jack Flaherty will open on top of the mound on Wednesday night. Flaherty has a record of 9-1 with an ERA of 2.65 and a WHIP of 0.97 in a total of 68 innings pitched. He has faced the Brewers once this season and picked up a win in that game by throwing six shutout innings while giving up four hits, two walks, and six strikeouts.
Milwaukee is 7-1 in their last eight games played. The Brewers are 8-1 in their last nine games played on the road, 5-1 in their last six games against an opposing starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15, 22-7 in their last 28 games as road favorites, 38-13 in their last 51 games after a win, and 49-22 in their last 71 games overall.
St. Louis is 6-1 in their last seven games played overall. The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five games when scoring two or fewer runs in their previous game, 8-3 in their last 11 games after a defeat, 8-3 in their last 11 games against a right-handed starter, and 6-1 in their last seven games played on grass.
These two teams have very similar offenses and the pitchers should almost cancel each other out. This game should go down to who gets the timely hits and score. With St. Louis averaging 4.88 runs per game in their last 24 outings, I think there’s good betting value in the home team here.
Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals +103
The under is 38-16-4 in Milwaukee’s last 58 games against an opponent with a winning record. The Brewers have seen the total go under in five out of their last seven games when their opponent allows two or fewer runs in their previous game. The under is also 6-2-2 in their last 10 Wednesday games, and 4-1 in their last five games against an opposing pitcher with a WHIP of 1.15.
The total has gone under in five out of the last seven games played by the Cardinals. The under is also 5-2 in their last seven games as betting underdogs, 15-5 in their last 20 games as home underdogs, 4-0 in their last four games when the total is set between 7.0 to 8.5, and 6-3 in their last nine games against the National League Central division.
Head to head, the under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams and 6-2 in their last eight meetings in St. Louis.
As stated above, I expect another low-scoring game from these teams as St. Louis will have their ace in Flaherty on the mound on Wednesday. Not only does Flaherty have a win over the Brewers, but he blanked them once already things campaign.
Peralta has also shut out the Cardinals earlier this season so with two very good pitchers taking the hill, so I don’t expect to see too many runs on Wednesday.
The Brewers’ pitching staff has an ERA of 3.83 in their last five games while the Cardinals’ own pitching staff has a 2.20 ERA over the same period. These teams have combined to score seven or fewer runs in each of their last four head-to-head meetings. Everything points to the under.
Prediction: Under 7
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