Blake Daniels, April 18, 2023

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The Atlanta Hawks try again at the TD Garden on Tuesday night.

The Hawks lost the Boston Celtics in Game 1 112-99 to fall behind 0-1 in their best-of-seven first-round playoff series. Atlanta failed to hit the century mark for the first time since early December. The Hawks shot just 5-29 from a three-point distance in Game 1

The Celtics are looking to sweep the first two games of the series and hold home-court advantage. Boston got another big game from their dynamic duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Derrick White also scored 24 during the win.

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have plenty of good shooters on their team and they averaged 35.2% from a three-point distance during the regular season but they fired blanks in Game 1. Atlanta shot just 17.2% from downtown and missed 15 out of their 33 three-pointers attempted. Their starting backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray combined to shoot just 1-11 from deep.

Murray however had a big night for the Hawks as he put up 24 points with 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals. However, Trae Young scored only 16 points, 10 below his regular season scoring average of 26.2 points per game. Deandre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela all scored in double digits but none of the three scored more than 12 points to give Murray support.

During the regular season, the Hawks averaged 118.4 points per game while grabbing 44.4 rebounds and issuing 25.0 assists per game. Young led the team in scoring and passing at 26.2 points and 10.2 assists per game. Clint Capela led the team in rebounding at 12.0 boards per contest while also shooting 65.3% from deep.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics dominated Game 1 and led by as many as 32 points before coasting in the end. Boston outrebounded Atlanta 58-45 while their two stars led the way. Jaylen Brown led the Celtics with 29 points while Jayson Tatum added 25. The duo also combined to grab 25 rebounds in a brilliant effort. Derrick White also emerged with 24 points as the Celtics were rolled over the Hawks in Game 1.

White also added 7 assists and 5 rebounds while also hitting four three-pointers. Boston’s outside shooting clicked as every starter made at least two three-point baskets. Al Horford started at center but struggled for only 6 points. Marcu Smart did his part and played excellent defense again the Hawks. The Celtic played only 8 players in Game 1 with Malcolm Brogdon and Robert WIlliams playing over 20 minutes.

Boston scored an average of 117.9 points per game during the regular season. The Celtics pulled down 45.3 boards per contest and issued 26.7 dimes per outing. Jayson Tatum led the team in scoring at 30.1 points per game. Jaylen Brown added 26.6 points per game while also leading the team in FG percentage at 49.2%. Marcus Smart led the team with 6.5 rebounds per game while also putting up 11.5 points per game.

Hawks vs Celtics SU Prediction

The Hawks are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Celtics. Atlanta is also 0-5 SU in their last 5 games played against Boston.

Atlanta Hawks SU trends:

• The Hawks are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Hawks are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games played on the road.
• The Hawks are 12-16 SU on the road against the Eastern Conference.
• The Hawks are 7-15 SU in their last 22 games played as underdogs against the Eastern Conference.
• The Hawks are 13-22 SU in their last 35 games played overall as betting underdogs.

Boston Celtics SU trends:

• The Celtics are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Celtics are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games played at home.
• The Celtics are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games played against the Atlantic Division.
• The Celtics are 35-18 SU in their last 53 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Celtics are 19-8 SU in their last 27 road games against the Eastern Conference.

The Hawks came up short in Game 1 as their offense struggled. Atlanta scored just 99 points, marking the first time since December 7th that they failed to hit at least 100 points. Dejounte Murray scored 2 points for the Hawk but Trae Young struggled with only 16 points.

Atlanta’s offensive woes were traced to their poor three-point shooting. The Hawks shot just 5-29 from deep while the Celtics made 13 of 33 attempts from downtown, Murray, and Young combined to make only one three-pointer in 11 attempts. If the Hawks want to have a chance at beating the Celtics, the duo and Trae Young especially must shoot much better from the floor.

Young has been disappointing to start the playoffs and it looks like his late-season struggles have carried over. While he scored 24+ points in each of his last three regular season games played, he scored 14 or fewer in four of seven outings prior to that. There is no doubt Young can score against Boston as he averaged 31 points per game during their two regular season meetings.

The Celtics had another big game from their young and talented duo of Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown. Tatum had 25 points and 11 rebounds while Brown led the Celtics with 29 points and 12 rebounds. Derrick White also had a big game for Boston with 24 points.

Tatum and Brown have consistently led the Celtics’ scoring charge. They averaged close to 60 points combined in March as Boston averaged over 120 points per game that month. With the postseason starting, they are picking off right where they left off during the regular season.

Brown has scored at least 25 points in 15 out of his last 19 games played. His red-hot shooting carried over to Game 1 where he made 12 of 23 shots. Brown averaged 23 points per game during Boston’s two regular season games against Atlanta.

I expect a better effort from Trae Young. But with the Celtics also playing excellent defense, I like Boston to repeat over Atlanta here. Give me the Celtics to take a 2-0 lead.

Prediction: Boston Celtics

Hawks vs Celtics ATS Prediction

The Hawks are0-6 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Celtics. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in their last five games played in Boston.

Atlanta Hawks ATS trends:

• The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• The Hawks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games.
• The Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The Hawks are 11-28 ATS in their last 39 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.
• The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games played against the Atlantic Division.
• The Hawks are 27-27 ATS in their last 54 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Hawks are 12-16 ATS in their last 28 road games played against the Eastern Conference.

Boston Celtics AT trends:

• The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
• The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played against the Atlantic Division.
• The Celtics are 32-21 ATS in their last 53 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up win.
• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Celtics are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 Tuesday games.
• The Celtics are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 Conference Quarterfinals games.

I like the Celtics to win this game but I don’t think this will be a rout like the first game. Atlanta will be desperate for a win and they will enter this game playing like no tomorrow. Trae Young is coming off a poor game and I expect him to bounce back with a better effort in Game 2. Everybody in Atlanta except Capela can shoot the three ball and I don’t expect another 5-29 shooting from deep from them. With Atlanta shooting the rock better, I don’t expect Boston to dominate the boards in Game 2.

Marcus Smart is an excellent defender but I expect Trae Young to come out better. The Hawks need a strong performance to stay alive in the series. They should be able to do that and keep this a close game all throughout. I think 10 points is too much to lay to a team that is desperate.

Prediction: Hawks +10.5

Hawks vs Celtics Over/Under Prediction

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 games played between these two teams. The total has gone under in three out of the last four games played between these two teams in Boston.

Atlanta Hawks over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1-1 in the Hawks’ last 6 overall.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Hawks’ last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Hawks’ last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-2 in the Hawks’ last 6 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The over is 11-6 in the Hawks’ last 17 games played against the Atlantic Division.
• The under is 6-2-1 in the Hawks’ last 9 Tuesday games.
• The under is 6-2 in the Hawks’ last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 40-16-1 in the Hawks’ last 57 Conference Quarterfinals games.

Boston Celtics over/under trends:

• The under is 5-4-1 in the last 10 games played by the Celtics.
• The under is 21-9 in the Celtics’ last 30 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• The under is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The under is 10-5-1 in the Celtics’ last 16 games played against the Atlantic Division.
• The over is 7-2 in the Celtics’ last 9 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The over is 6-3 in the Celtics’ last 9 games played as favorites.
• The over is 7-3 in the Celtics’ last 10 Tuesday games.
• The over is 25-16-1 in the Celtics’ last 42 home games.
• The over is 17-9-1 in the Celtics’ last 27 home games against the Eastern Conference.

More than Boston’s impressive defense, it was Atlanta’s shooting woes that contributed to the blowout loss in Game 1. I expect the Hawk to bounce back with at least a better effort here. They should be able to hit more three-pointers here and will be able to go toe-to-toe with the Celtics’ high-powered offense early on. Meanwhile, Boston has the firepower to score 120 points easily. With Tatum and Brown playing so well right now, I think offense dictates this game.

Prediction: Over 229