Blake Daniels, April 20, 2023

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The San Diego Padres visit Chase Field as they open an NL West set against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday.

San Diego is 9-11 SU and 4-3 SU on the road this season. The Padres are 3rd in the NL West team standings and are 2.5 games behind the leaders – Arizona Cardinals. Arizona is 11-8 SU to start the year and they are 5-2 SU at home this season. The Diamondbacks are 3-1 SU in their last four games played while the Padres are just 2-4 SU in their last six games played.

San Diego Padres

The Padres earned a much-needed win as they beat the Atlanta Braves 1-0 to end Atlanta’s winning streak at 8. The struggling Juan Soto had the game’s only score with a home run while Nick Martinez pitched seven solid innings. However, the Padres have scored just five runs in their last six games played.

San Diego ranks just 25th in scoring at 3.65 runs per game. They are 28th in hitting with a team batting average of .223 and 22nd in OPS at .691. They are 8th in the league with 23 long balls and 22nd in stolen bases with 9. The San Diego pitching staff is 12th with a team ERA of 4.08, 19th in WHIP at 1.36, and six quality starts.

Michael Wacha will get the start for the Padres in this season opener. Wacha is 2-1 with an ERA of 6.06 and a WHIP of 1.47. In his last start, he gave up seven runs on 11 hits including two home runs against the Milwaukee Brewers. The 31-year-old defeated Colorado and Atlanta in his first two starts of the year, going six innings in each appearance. He has a 3:1 K: BB ratio this year.

Arizona Diamondbacks

After losing two of three to Miami in their previous series, the Arizona Diamondbacks went 2-1 against the St. Louis Cardinals. They are however coming off a 5-14 drubbing during the series finale last Wednesday. Madison Bumgarner dropped to 0-3 on the season as he was hit hard again, allowing seven runs on seven hits in just four innings of work.

Arizona is 16th in scoring at 4.63 runs per game. They are 7th in batting average at .259, and 15th in OPS at .725. They also rank 24th in home runs with 17, and 6th in stolen bases with 19. The Diamondbacks pitching staff is 23rd in the league with a team ERA of 4.96 and a whip of 1.41, 22nd overall with six quality starts.

Right-hander Ryne Nelson will open on top of the mound for the Diamondbacks. The 25-year-old has three no decisions in his first three starts of the year. In his most recent start against Miami, Nelson pitched six innings and allowed one home run on five hits with four walks. Arizona is 1-2 in his three starts this season.

Padres v Diamondbacks Betting Prediction

The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Diamondbacks. San Diego is also 4-1 in their last 5 games played in Arizona.

San Diego Padres betting trends:

• The Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 overall.
• The Padres are 16-35 in their last 51 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Padres are 16-35 in their last 51 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Padres are 18-40 in their last 58 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Padres are 3-7 in their last 10 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
• The Padres are 2-6 in their last 8 games on grass.
• The Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
• The Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 road games against a right-handed starter
• The Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Padres are 1-11 in their last 12 Thursday games.
• The Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 Game 1s of a series.
• The Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Arizona Diamondback betting trends:

• The Diamondbacks are 8-3 in their last 11 overall.
• The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
• The Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Diamondbacks are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the National League West.
• The Diamondbacks are 9-3 in their last 12 games versus a right-handed starter.
• The Diamondbacks are 6-2 in their last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Diamondbacks are 11-4 in their last 15 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Diamondbacks are 8-3 in their last 11 games on grass.
• The Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The Diamondbacks are 38-83 in their last 121 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The Diamondbacks are 5-12 in their last 17 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Diamondbacks are 2-7 in their last 9 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The Diamondbacks are 2-9 in their last 11 Game1s of a series.
• The Diamondbacks are 1-8 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last 4 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Arizona was hammered with 14 runs against the Cardinals on Wednesday, with all runs scored within the first six innings. The trend could continue on Thursday as they are facing a Padres team that is due for an offensive breakout as they welcome Fernando Tatis Jr. back from suspension.

Michael Wacha was roughed up in his most recent start but he should be able to bounce back on Thursday. Arizona is hitting just .245 with an OBP of .291 against right-handed pitchers with 22 walks in 380 at-bats. Two starts ago, Wacha allowed zero runs in six innings on two hits and one walk with 10 strikeouts.

Meanwhile, Nelson gave up three runs on six hits with three walks against this same Padres team. San Diego scored 3 runs in the first two innings and I expect them to do the same on Thursday. With Tatis returning, I expect the Padres to be in a winning mood.

Prediction: San Diego Padres

Padres v Diamondbacks Over/Under Prediction

The under is also 4-1 in their last 5 games played in Arizona.

San Diego Padres over/under trends:

• The under is 7-3 in the Padres’ last 10 overall.
• The under is 5-1 in the Padres’ last 6 road games.
• The under is 5-0 in the Padres’ last 5 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Padres’ last 6 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The under is 5-1 in the Padres’ last 6 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games following a win.
• The under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The under is 4-1 in the Padres’ last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The under is 5-2 in the Padres’ last 7 games versus a right-handed starter.
• The under is 7-3 in the Padres’ last 10 games played on grass.
• The over is 7-3 in the Padres’ last 10 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The over is 9-3-1 in the Padres’ last 13 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The over is 9-3-1 in the Padres’ last 13 games against the National League West.

Arizona Diamondbacks over/under trends:

• The under is 12-5-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 18 home games
• The under is 4-0-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher
• The under is 4-0 in the Diamondbacks’ last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5
• The under is 5-1-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 7 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game
• The under is 5-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 6 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 6 Thursday games.
• The under is 4-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 5 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The under is 7-3 in the Diamondbacks’ last 10 home games versus a right-handed starter.
• The under is 6-2-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 9 games following a loss.
• The over is 7-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 9 games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The over is 5-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 7 games after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2 in the Diamondbacks’ last 7 games versus a right-handed starter.
• The over is 7-3 in the Diamondbacks’ last 10 Game 1s of a series.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 6 against the National League West.

The Padres have struggled at the plate as of late. However, the law of averages says they should get better soon. San Diego should get a boost from Wednesday’s win over the Atlanta Braves. The return of Tatis after the completion of his 80-game PED suspension should also give them a lift.

Tatis played in 8 Triple-A games and hit .515/.590/1.212 with seven home runs, six walks, and 3 strikeouts. Juan Soto is also coming off a game where he went yard so Thursday could be a preview of what the Padres’ dynamic duo could do in the coming games.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have scored five or more runs in four consecutive games. They are hitting .298 at home this season with an OBP of .345 and an OPS of .841. I’m going with the over at Chase Field.

Prediction: Over 9