Blake Daniels, April 11, 2023

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The Washington Nationals play the Los Angeles Angels in Game 2 of their three-game set at Angel Stadium.

Washington stunned Los Angeles 6-4 in Game 1 on Monday night. Jeimer Candelario and CJ Abrams drove two runs each as the Nationals racked up 14 hits to beat the Angels at their home field.

Every Washington batter in the starting lineup had a hit including five with two hits each. Candelario tied the game at 4 apiece with a two-run single in the 4th while Abrams drove home the go-ahead run with a grounder in the 5th inning.

Hunter Renfroe hit a home run in a third straight game and Luis Rengifo had an early two-run double for the Angels who lost back-to-back games for the first time this season.

Washington Nationals

Prior to Monday’s Game 1 between these two teams, the Nationals were 21st with 40 runs scored this season. Washington is also 8th in batting average at .265, 11th in on-base percentage at .336, and 23rd in slugging at .363. Their pitching staff is just 25th in ERA at 5.42, tied for 15th with 2 quality starts, 22nd in WHIP at 1.44, and 28th in BAA at .281.

Josiah Gray will open on top of the mound for the Nationals on Tuesday. The 25-year-old right-hander is 0-2 with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.64 in two appearances this season. Gray surrendered five runs during his first start of the season against the Atlanta Braves. He however bounced back with a strong start against the Rockies the last time out, allowing only one run on 8 hits last Thursday.

Last season Gray posted a 7-10 record with an ERA of 5.02, an FIP of 5.86, and a WHIP of 1.36 with a K/BB ratio of 154/66. He led the majors in home runs allowed at 38 and the National League in walks. He pitched once against the Angels last season and earned a win while conceding three earned runs on five hits with two home runs in 5.1 innings of work.

Los Angeles Angels

Before Monday’s games, the Angels ranked 4th in runs scored with 54. They are also 17th in batting at .244 and 12th in on-base percentage and slugging at .333 and .428, respectively. Their pitching staff ranks 11th overall with an ERA of 4.05, tied for 4th with 4 quality starts, 9th in WHIP at 1.26, and 12th in BAA at .242.

Shohei Ohtani is 1-0 with an ERA of 0.75, WHIP of 1.00, and an 18/7 K/BB ratio. Ohtani threw six scoreless innings in a no-decision against the Athletics on opening day. Last April 5, the dual-threat superstar allowed one run in a 4-3 win over the Seattle Mariners.

Ohtani was dominating on the mound last season as he posted an impressive 15-9 record with a 2.33 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 1.01 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of 219/44 across 166 innings pitched. This marks the first time in his career that Ohtani will pitch against the Washington National.

Nationals vs Angels Betting Prediction

The Nationals are 4-9 in their last 13 games played against the Angels. Washington is also 2-6 in their last 8 games played in Los Angeles.

Washington Nationals betting trends:

• The Nationals are 29-66 in their last 95 games played overall.
• The Nationals are 4-12 in their last 16 road games.
• The Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague road games versus a right-handed starter.
• The Nationals are 20-41 in their last 61 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Nationals are 5-11 in their last 16 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Nationals are 29-66 in their last 95 games on grass.
• The Nationals are 19-44 in their last 63 road games versus a team with a winning record.
• The Nationals are 22-53 in their last 75 games against a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15.
• The Nationals are 16-39 in their last 55 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Nationals are 8-20 in their last 28 Tuesday games.
• The Nationals are 2-5 in their last 7 interleague games versus a right-handed starter.
• The Nationals are 19-54 in their last 73 games opposite a team with a winning record.
• The Nationals are 7-20 in their last 27 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Nationals are 3-9 in their last 12 Game 2s of a series.
• The Nationals are 3-9 in their last 12 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Nationals are 3-10 in their last 13 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The Nationals are 5-17 in their last 22 games versus a right-handed starter.
• The Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 road games against a right-handed starter
• The Nationals are 3-15 in their last 18 interleague games versus a team with a winning record
• The Nationals are 1-8 in their last 9 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 interleague games.

Los Angeles Angels betting trends:

• The Angels are 7-2 in their last 9 home games.
• The Angels are 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus a right-handed starter
• The Angels are 13-3 in their last 16 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The Angels are 9-3 in their last 12 games against a right-handed starter.
• The Angels are 9-4 in their last 13 games versus a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The Angels are 35-17 in their last 52 interleague home games versus a team with a losing record.
• The Angels are 6-13 in their last 19 Tuesday games.
• The Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The Angels are 3-8 in their last 11 games opposite the National League East.
• The Angels are 5-17 in their last 22 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Angels are 3-12 in their last 15 interleague games.
• The Angels are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague games versus a team with a losing record.
• The Angels are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague home games.
• The Angels are 1-4 in their last 5 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games against a right-handed starter.

Ohtani is off to a strong start on the mound this season. In two appearances, he has pitched 12 innings and has allowed only one earned run on five hits with 7 walks and 18 strikeouts. The Mariners managed to get only five hits in six innings against Ohtani last week. With Seattle being the better team than the Nationals, I expect another strong outing from Ohtani on Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, Josiah Gray heads to this matchup coming off a solid performance at Coors Field. However, the Angels have slugged 15 home runs over their first 9 games of the 2023 MLB season. Gray has surrendered 3 home runs in his first two starts of the season. Look for the Angels to give him trouble all game long.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels -275.

Nationals vs Angels Over/Under Prediction

The under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 games played between these two teams. The total has gone under in four out of the last six games played between these two teams in Los Angeles.

Washington Nationals over/under trends:

• The over is 5-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 7 overall.
• The over is 5-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 road games.
• The over is 4-0 in the Nationals’ last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• The over is 5-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 Game 2s of a series.
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 7 games played on grass.
• The over is 7-3-1 in the Nationals’ last 11 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 games against a right-handed starter.
• The over is 4-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The under is 5-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The under is 9-2 in the Nationals’ last 11 interleague road games versus a right-handed starter.
• The under is 3-1-1 in the Nationals’ last 5 interleague road games against a team with a winning record.
• The under is 15-5-2 in the Nationals’ last 22 interleague road games.
• The under is 5-2-1 in the Nationals’ last 8 interleague games versus a team with a winning record.
• The under is 5-0-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 interleague games against a right-handed starter.
• The under is 8-0 in the Nationals’ last 8 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

Los Angeles Angels over/under trends:

• The under is 18-7-1 in the Angels’ last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• The under is 4-1 in the Angels’ last 5 Tuesday games.
• The under is 4-0-1 in the Angels’ last 5 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The under is 5-0 in the Angels’ last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The under is 22-9-3 in the Angels’ last 34 games versus a team with a winning % below .400.
• The under is 9-4 in the Angels’ last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• The under is 34-16-3 in the Angels’ last 53 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The over is 6-1-1 in the Angels’ last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The over is 5-1 in the Angels’ last 6 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Angels’ last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Angels’ last 4 games against the. National League East.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Angels’ last 6 interleague games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Angels’ last 5 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• The over is 11-3-2 in the Angels’ last 16 interleague home games versus a team with a losing record.
• The over is 20-6-5 in the Angels’ last 31 interleague games against a team with a losing record.
• The over is 9-3-1 in the Angels’ last 13 interleague games versus a right-handed starter.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Angels’ last 5 interleague home games against a right-handed starter.
• The over is 6-2 in the Angels’ last 8 games versus a right-handed starter.
• The over is 22-9-2 in the Angels’ last 33 interleague home games.

Ohtani could easily shut down the Nationals but I expect the Angels to let him throw until the 6th, or probably the 7th inning at the max. My problem is that the Washington pitching staff could allow a ton of runs, especially if the bottom of the bullpen gets on the mound down the stretch.

The Angels’ bullpen holds an ERA of 4.45 with a 3.52 FIP across 32.1 innings pitched this season. On the other hand, the Nationals bullpen owns a terrible 5.45 ERA with a FIP of 5.30 in 36.1 frames worked.

Even if the Angels hold down the Nationals’ scoring here, Los Angeles is going to get plenty of opportunities to score. Remember this is a team that has scored at least seven runs in four out of their last six games and currently ranks 4th in the majors with 54 runs scored. Give me these teams to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 8.5