Blake Daniels, April 6, 2023

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The Miami Heat visit the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday night at the Wells Fargo Center.

Miami is still trying to get back to the Top 6 after dropping to 7th place. The Heat have won two in a row but are just 6-4 SU in their last 10 games. Miami is 42-37 SU on the year and are 1.5 games behind the 6th-seeded Nets but are also just 1.5 games up on the 8th-seeded Hawks.

Philadelphia looks secured in their spot as the No. 3 seed in the East. The Sixers are 2.5 games behind No. 2 Boston but are also 2.5 games up on No. 4 Cleveland. The Sixers head to this contest with a mediocre 5-5 SU record in their last 10 games played but they are coming off a big 103-101 win over Boston in their last game played.

Miami Heat

The Heat looked headed for disaster when they closed the month of March with three straight losses that dropped them outside the Top 6 in the Eastern Conference. But Miami recovered just in time and have won two in a row heading to this game. They, however, will be hard-pressed to get back to the 6th spot but right now, they still have a mathematical chance if they win out.

Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 27 points as they beat the Detroit Pistons 118-105. One game earlier, Butler put up 35 as Miami upset the Dallas Mavericks at 2.5 point underdog last Saturday.

Miami is 22-27 SU against the Eastern Conference. They are at the bottom of the East rankings as far as fastbreak points are concerned at only 11.4 per game. Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per game for the Heat.

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers were red-hot to start March and they had an 8-game winning streak last month which included wins over the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers. But they lost four out of their next five games to fall out of the race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. They have won three out of their last four games played to virtually lock up the No. 3 seed in the conference.

Joel Embiid waxed hot in their last game, scoring 52 points on 20-25 shooting with 13 rebounds in a 103-101 win over Boston. Embiid is now the heavy -900 betting favorite to win the 2023 NBA MVP award. But he may want one more big performance to lock up the award, at least at the sportsbooks.

Philly is 32-17 SU against the Eastern Conference this season. They rank 7th in the conference with 25.0 assists per game and are led by James Harden’s 10.8 dimes per contest. Tobias Harris has put up 14.7 points and 5.7 rebounds per game for the Sixers.

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers 4/6/23 SU Prediction

The Heat are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Sixers. Miami is 5-13 SU in their last 18 games played in Philadelphia.

Miami Heat SU trends:

• The Heat are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Heat are 2-3 SU in their last 5 games played on the road.
• The Heat are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played against the Atlantic Division.
• The Heat are 22-27 SU in their last 49 games played in the Eastern Conference.
• The Heat are 8-16 SU in their last 24 road games against the Eastern Conference.

Philadelphia 76ers SU trends:

• The 76ers are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games played.
• The 76ers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played at home.
• The 76ers are 32-17 SU in their last 49 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The 76ers are 17-8 SU in their last 25 home games against the Eastern Conference.
• The 76ers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 April games.

The Heat were one win away from returning to the NBA Finals last season. But this year has been a struggle and with the regular season entering its final week, Miami is in 7th place in the East and would need to win a play-in tournament game just to enter the postseason. The Heat however can still move up to No. 6 but they need to win their remaining games and hope to get help from other teams.

As of Wednesday, Miami trails Brooklyn by one game and the Nets own the tiebreaker against them so they would have to better the Nets’ record. That won’t be easy but it is still possible. But the Heat have to beat the Sixers on Thursday night.

Miami has won two in a row after a three-game losing streak. In their last game, they defeated the Detroit Pistons 118-105 with Jimmy Butler scoring 18 of his 27 points in the fourth quarter to seal the deal. In an interview, Butler said that the Heat isn’t obsessed about catching up with the Nets and they are good at wherever they will finish the regular season.

Meanwhile, the Sixers are 2.5 games behind the Celtics with three to play. Philly cut Boston’s lead by beating them 103-101 in their last game. Joel Embiid scored 52 points in that game, marking his 5th career 50-point game. Embiid shot 20-25 from the floor on Tuesday night and heads to this game looking to make one more big statement in the MVP race.

Embiid however, hasn’t been displaying his MVP numbers against the Heat. In his last six games against Miami, including four in last season’s playoffs, he averaged only 21.3 points per game and has scored over 25 points only once during that stretch. If the Sixers want to win on Thursday, Embiid must be at his best.

The Sixers are obviously the better team this season. However, entering Thursday night, the Heat may be the hungrier team and have more to play for. Miami is worth the risk here. Prediction: Miami Heat +150

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers 4/6/23 ATS Prediction

The Heat are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the 76ers. Miami is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games played in Philadelphia.

Miami Heat ATS trends:

• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
• The Heat are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight-up win.
• The Heat are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 1 days of rest.
• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
• The Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
• The Heat are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.

Philadelphia 76ers ATS trends:

• The 76ers are 46-33 ATS in their 79 games played this season
• The 76ers are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games.
• The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played in April.
• The 76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
• The 76ers are 27-22 ATS in their last 49 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The 76ers are 13-12 ATS in their last 25 home games against the Eastern Conference.
• The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss.
• The 76ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The 76ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.

The Sixers have won five out of their last six games played. Philadelphia is 29-11 in 40 home games played this season. Meanwhile, the Heat have covered the betting spread once in their last six games played. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five games played overall.

However, Philly is 2.5 games behind Boston with only 3 games left to play. That makes it too difficult to catch up now. Having said that, the Sixers are also 2.5 games up of the No. 4 Cavaliers so they are pretty much locked up in that No. 3 spot. With nothing much to play for, Doc Rivers might end up giving his star players some rest on Thursday night rather than risk injury.

Meanwhile, Miami still has a mathematical chance of moving up to the 6th spot while also trying not to fall to No. 8. That means this game may be more important to them than to the Sixers. I’ll take my chance on the team that has more motive to win this game. Prediction: Heat +4

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers 4/6/23 Over/Under Prediction

The under is 4-0 in the last four games played between these two teams. The under is also 2-1 in their last three games played in Philadelphia.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

• The over is 8-4 in the Heat’s last 12 games played overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 road games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 4-0 in the Heat’s last 4 against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 games played in April
• The over is 5-1 in the Heat’s last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 5-1 in the Heat’s last 6 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 7-2 in the Heat’s last 9 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 7-2 in the Heat’s last 9 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The over is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 Thursday games.

Philadelphia 76ers over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the 76ers’ last 5 overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the 76ers’ last 5 home games.
• The under is 4-0 in the 76ers’ last 4 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the 76ers’ last 4 games against a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The under is 9-1 in the 76ers’ last 10 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The under is 5-1 in the 76ers’ last 6 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 4-1 in the 76ers’ last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 18-6 in the 76ers’ last 24 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 6-2 in the 76ers’ last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2 in the 76ers’ last 7 Thursday games.
• The under is 5-2 in the 76ers’ last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The under is 5-2 in the 76ers’ last 7 games played against the Eastern Conference.
• The under is 6-0 in the 76ers’ last 6 games played against the Southeast Division.

These are two of the Top 3 defensive teams in the NBA. They are also among the bottom in pace, with the Sixers ranked 27th and the Heat at No. 29. Philly has gone under four times in their last five games played. And these teams have gone under five times in their last six head-to-head meetings. With the playoffs almost here, I expect both teams to start showing that defensive intensity if they haven’t done so yet. Thursday should be another defensive battle between these Eastern Conference rivals.

Prediction: Under 221.5