Wow, did the landscape of the Western Conference Finals ever change quickly?
Two minutes into the fourth quarter of Game 4 on Tuesday, the Warriors held a 12-point lead and looked well on their way to taking a 3-1 series stranglehold on the Rockets. But after flipping the script with a shocking fourth-quarter comeback during which they held the potent Golden State offense to just 12 points in the final frame, the Rockets squared the series with a 95-92 win (wasn’t it nice to see a competitive NBA playoff game for a change?) and head back to Houston with a chance to push the Dubs to the brink of elimination.
Can the Rockets build off that stunning rally in tonight’s Game 5 and move within a victory of the NBA Finals, or will Golden State right the ship tonight and take a 3-2 series lead going back to Oracle Arena? Let’s take a look at the betting odds for Game 5, break down the matchup and see where the best betting value lies.
All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from BetOnline.ag at 1 p.m eastern on May 24, 2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.
BetOnline makes the Rockets a favorite to win Game 5 tonight on their home court, which should really come as no surprise. After all, Houston was a home favorite in both Game 1 and 2 of this series, laying 2.5 points by the tip of the series opener and then being 2-point chalk for Game 2. However, the -1 that Houston was favored by at the time of writing was the shortest line of the series, and some other sites were listing this line at pick ’em or even with the Warriors as 1-point favorites.
The more significant odds adjustment for this game is the Over/Under, which opened at 220 and ticked down as low as 218.5 before settling at 219.5 as of Thursday afternoon. That total is several buckets lower than any other game we’ve seen in this series, with each of the first four contests featuring an Over/Under of 225 or higher. The last two games have gone Under by a combined margin of nearly 60 points, and oddsmakers are obviously anticipating the defense to be ratcheted up once again tonight with so much on the line.
As much as the Rockets deserve credit for their improbable rally on Tuesday, the Warriors also have to shoulder a lot of the blame. Golden State missed all but three of its 18 shots in the final quarter, and the Warriors’ offensive execution in the last few minutes was especially abysmal.
Suddenly, there’s a ton of pressure on this Golden State team, easily the most they’ve faced since Kevin Durant joined the team two years ago. Last year was a pleasure cruise when the Dubs lost just once in 17 postseason outings and barely faced any adversity. It’s a lot easier to play your best when everything’s going right, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Warriors react following Tuesday’s collapse that evoked memories of the Dubs’ choke job against the Cavaliers two years ago in the NBA Finals.
With Andre Iguodala expected to miss his second straight game tonight and Klay Thompson questionable for Game 5, it’s up to Curry and Durant to lead the way, especially after the dynamic duo combined to go 2-for-13 from the field in the fourth quarter Tuesday. Whether they’re mentally strong enough (and in Curry’s case, healthy enough) to rebound will go a long way to determining the outcome of tonight’s game.
Even though Houston is the top seed in the West and has home court advantage, not many were actually expecting the Rockets to win this series. And after Houston got blown off the Oracle court by 41 points in Game 3, we were all ready to write James Harden, Chris Paul, and company off.
But now, the Rockets are surging with confidence, and with good reason. This series has become a best of three, with Houston set to host two of them. The belief level has never been higher in the Rockets locker room, even if the oddsmakers still aren’t convinced (Golden State is a -160 favorite to win the 2018 NBA title on BetOnline’s current futures odds.)
There are two major issues to worry about with the Rockets tonight, however. The first is complacency, especially with the Warriors motivated to bring a max effort tonight in a bounce-back situation. The other is the heavy minutes that Houston’s starters had to play in order to pull off that comeback just two days ago. Harden, Paul, P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza all played more than 40 minutes Tuesday night, something that could cost the Rockets tonight if the Warriors are able to push the pace.
It’s natural to expect the Rockets to pick up where they left off on Tuesday and for the Warriors to feel a hangover effect from their fourth-quarter collapse. It’s also something that most of us are hoping for, with the majority of people suffering from Golden State fatigue and desperate for a different NBA Finals matchup this spring.
But I don’t think that’s what we’re going to see tonight in Game 5. The Warriors may have been guilty of taking their foot off the gas pedal Tuesday due to overconfidence following their easy Game 3 victory, and the Rockets are the team in a prime letdown situation tonight.
Even if Curry isn’t himself right now, look for Durant to come up with a huge bounce-back effort tonight like he did in the opening round against New Orleans (scoring 38 points following a Game 3 blowout loss to the Pelicans.) I like Golden State to pull off the mild upset tonight, and also think there’s a lot of value on the Over at the lower 219.5 total.
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
