The experts have derived the projected win-loss totals for the NBA’s 30 teams this coming season. Likewise, the NBA betting sites have come-up with an over/under win total bet for each team. The Milwaukee Bucks, who led the league last season with a total of 60 regular season wins, have their odds pegged at over/under 57.5, the highest total in the odds board.
With the October 22, 2019 opening getting closer and closer, let’s take a look at which over/under win total odds provide the best betting value.
Here are my top five bets to make for the NBA teams’ over/under wins this season:
*Odds from Spinsports.com as of 10/18/19
The Brooklyn Nets won 42 games during the 2018-19 season with D’Angelo Russell as the catalyst for the team’s offense. The Nets swapped Russell with an injured Kevin Durant who won’t be playing this season but Brooklyn also signed Kyrie Irving from the Boston Celtics. While Russell became an All-Star last season, Irving is an established superstar in the NBA with championship pedigree. Irving was good for 9.1 win shares in 67 games played last season while Russell was good for 5.0 win shares in 81 games last season. The Nets also lost Ed Davis and Demarrec Carroll but they have added Taurean Prince and DeAndre Jordan. Jordan was good for 7.2 win shares last season so if the Nets play their cards right, he’s going to add plenty of wins with his inside presence and defense. Brooklyn will also have a healthy Caris Lavert while Joe Harris is on a contract season. Spencer Dinwiddie should be a strong candidate for Sixth Man of the Year. Having said all these, I think the Nets’ changes are worth more than three extra wins from last season.
Prediction: Over 44.5
The Golden State Warriors were back to back NBA champions before they were ousted by the Toronto Raptors in the 2019 NBA Finals. Despite that, the oddsmakers have set their win total line at 47.5. The Warriors lost Kevin Durant to the Brooklyn Net but they got a “consolation” in D’Angelo Russell who has plenty of upside. They also lost Klay Thompson to injury and he is expected to miss the entire 2019-20 season. The Warriors will also be without veteran guard Andre Iguodala whom they traded to the Memphis Grizzlies. Stephen Curry will have an increased workload this season as the Dubs are without both KD and Klay. Russell will be there to provide not just playmaking but scoring as well. Draymond Green is no offensive machine. Golden State has not only lost two of its top three scorers, they also have an inexperienced bench. Durant and Thompson were good for 16.8 win shares last season and the Warriors won 57 games. I think those shoes are too big to fill. I’m sorry but I will have to go with the under here.
Prediction: Under 47.5
Since the Chicago Bulls traded Jimmy Butler, they won 27 and 22 games in 2017-18 and 2018-19, respectively. Butler was traded to the Timberwolves for Zach Lavine. Lavine had his first full season with Chicago last year and the Bulls won just 22 games. This summer, the Bulls added Otto Porter Jr., Thaddeus Young, Tomas Satoransky, and Luke Kornet to help Lavine with the scoring load. Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. should be more improved this season while veterans Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine will provide the team with experience. These are good pieces to have on a team but remember that the elite teams have at least two superstars in their line-up. Lavine is a rising star but I’m not sure if he’s already in that superstar level. I’m not sure how this current team wins 11 more games last season.
Prediction: Under 32.5
The Dallas Mavericks head to this season with plenty of optimism. The Mavs bagged Kristaps Porzingis before the 2019 trade deadline. Dallas sent Dennis Smith Jr. and DeAndre Jordan packing in order to nab the Latvian unicorn. Having Porzingis and Luka Doncic both healthy is as good as any top duo in the league. The idea of having the two play pick and roll basketball is fantastic and it offers exciting possibilities for Rick Carlisle. However, Porzingis has not played in 21 months and although he looked healthy during the preseason, his injury history turns me off. Boban Marjanovic, Jalen Brunson and Tim Hardaway Jr. provide support off the bench. Dallas has not won at least 40 games in the last three seasons. A Doncic-Porzingis tandem is a tantalizing prospect but health will always be an issue with Porzingis who has played a total of 186 out of a possible 328 regular season games. I’ll take the risk here and go with history. Dallas won 33 games last season I don’t think Porzingis will be healthy enough to add 8 more wins this season, at least not in the Western Conference. Prediction: Under 40.5 Prediction: Under 32.5
The Los Angeles won 48 games last season despite trading their leading scorer Tobias Harris prior to the trade deadline. That and the other trades didn’t really matter because the heart and soul of this team last year was Lou Williams who won the 6th Man of the Year awardee. Williams, Montrezl Harrell and Ivica Zubac will return for the Clippers this year and they will be joined by Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Kawhi Leonard is the difference maker here as he is coming off a championship season with the Toronto Raptors. Leonard was good for 9.5 shares while playing on load management last season. With the way he played in the playoffs, Leonard is at 100% strength. Paul George is expected to miss the early part of the season but once he returns, this team will be a force to reckoned with. To envision this team winning 8 more games this season isn’t too much. I think this team wins 55 games easily and if George returns to full strength early in the season, they could be chasing 60 wins.
Prediction: Over 54.5
The Suns added Ricky Rubio and Dario Saric this offseason. They won 19 games last season and will be returning Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton. I like the addition of Rubio because he will let Booker be more of the scorer that he naturally is but to think this team can win 10 more games this season with Rubio and Saris may be too much. Thanks, but no thanks. I will go with the under here.
Prediction: Under 28.5
Cleveland won 19 games last season and this year’s team isn’t too different from that one. Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Cedi Osman, Larry Nance Jr., and Jordan Clarkson are the veterans. The rest of the team are young players who could be stars in five years. I think they will trade Kevin Love and that will all the more push their chances to win games back. This team is a project and I think the goal is to add more pieces in the draft.
Prediction: Under 23.5
The Rockets won 53 games last season with Harden and Paul so why not with the new Harden and Russ combo? Harden attempted 24.5 shots per game last season while CP3 ranked third in the Rockets at 12.4. Westbrook has attempted 20 or more shots per game in each of the last seasons. He’s going to take some of Harden’s shots and even touches away. If it’s not Harden’s game which will take a toll with Russ’ presence, it will be Westbrook’s game who will look ordinary if he doesn’t get as many touches or shots. Pick your poison. Mike D’Antoni didn’t make Melo experiment work. I don’t this one will be any different.
Prediction: Under 53.5
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