With the NFL Draft in our rear-view mirror and the first workouts already passing us, we now start to feel the anticipation of how rookies will perform once they actually step on the football field. The NFL regular season kick-off may be a good length away at four months, but the league and game of football is so popular in the United States of America, that the aftermath of the draft has built a demand for props — hence why we have so many rookie ones.
There is a load of bets provided by the top NFL betting sites, with a lot of different positions, but the one that everybody will want to play the most are the props among quarterback, which we’ll get into before we go over all of the odds.
One of the most popular is the over/under on how many rookie quarterbacks will start in Week 1 of the regular season, and the reason why it’s such a hot bet this year is because of the amount of QB’s who were chosen in the draft. A total of eleven were taken, including three in the first round — Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins. The O/U number is currently set at 1.5.
Among those quarterbacks, Daniel Jones will be the most entertaining to place a bet on. When he was selected by the New York Giants to replace 38-year-old Eli Manning, the entire Giants base, NFL viewership and media were absolutely shocked. And it wasn’t that they picked him that set off the shock waves, it was how they did it. With a No. 6 and No. 17 pick in the first round, the Giants could have waited and took Jones with their later pick, but they instead decided to do it with their top 10 pick. As a result, there’s now massive controversy swirling around general manager Dave Gettleman.
The controversy for Gettleman means pure fun for us. Las Vegas is predicting that Jones will eventually replace Manning this season, and they’ve currently got his total over/under starts set at 4.5. But before you get excited, take this bet with caution: Gettleman has already said that he won’t be rushing Jones into the starting quarterback position, and he won’t be there any time soon. Plain and simple, he wants him to learn from Manning. Fun bet, but be cautious with it.
On the opposite end, you had the Arizona Cardinals selection of quarterback Kyler Murray with the No. 1 overall pick, which wasn’t a surprise to anyone at all. In the first workouts, Murray looked great with the Cardinals and seems to be doing very well with head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense — he’s even been described as a ‘perfect fit.’ This can only mean one thing: We’ve officially approached the end of the Josh Rosen era in Arizona, if you can call it that, it didn’t last that long.
As far as Rosen is concerned, he would get shipped out of Phoenix to the Miami Dolphins. The 2018 NFL Draft 10th overall pick was traded on the second day of this year’s draft. Things have gotten so bad for Rosen that he’s actually listed as a +200 underdog compared to Murray’s -300 to make more starts in 2019.
In the National Football League, that’s just the way the cookie crumbles.
As far as the over is concerned, 5.5 makes it very interesting and extraordinarily entertaining. And here’s why: Clein Ferrell would tally that number while at Clemson University in each his sophomore, junior and senior year — he’s just an absolute machine. In his sophomore season as a Tiger, Ferrell would tally an average of 6.0, just breaking the 5.5 threshold at a young age. It would get even better from there with a massive improvement in his junior season, his number would be 9.5 sacks when the smoke cleared. When his senior campaign came around, he would roll even more, putting up a dominant number of 11.5. For his career, that would be a tally of 27.0 sacks in three years — those are elite figures right there. If I were you, I would take the over. Great pick by the Oakland Raiders.
There are four scenarios that I could see happening with Daniel Jones and the New York Giants: 1. The Giants get off to a great start and automatically are a playoff contender, as a result, Eli Manning would remain the starter all season long and Daniel Jones would never see the light of day. 2. New York would play 8-8 football all season long and stay in the playoff hunt as a result. If this happens, Manning would stay the starter until the Giants got eliminated from playoff contention. If that happens, Jones could possibly see one, two, maybe three or four games. Certainly, bet the under here. 3. The Giants get off to an absolute horrific start and get out of playoff contention early in the season, then you could see Daniel Jones break the over on the 4.5 mark. This is the only scenario I see that happening with though. 4. Eli Manning gets hurt and Daniel Jones is in there to break the 4.5 mark. However, even though Manning is getting old, he’s still durable like his brother was. The Mannings never get hurt. Don’t look for this scenario to happen. In other words, gamble the under on this bet, I don’t see Daniel Jones making his true impact until Eli decides to hang it up.
It’s still up for debate who will be the starter between Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith, so this bet will be really fun to make as a result. We’re being asked whether or not we think Haskins will be sacked under or over 7.5 times in the 2019 campaign, and that’s due to the Redskins’ cruddy offensive line. But before that, we have to know how many games Haskins will be playing. After the start Washington had last season under Smith, I could see the Redskins riding with him for awhile — they actually weren’t that bad in the first nine games with a 6-3 start. After that is when they would fall apart. If Washington had a similar season to their 2018 campaign, I could see Smith being in the starting spot for the vast majority of the season, with Haskins learning as a rookie. If he does get in that role, I could see it happening between Weeks 15-17. If that’s the case, you could certainly make the over bet in this one, the Skins’ offensive line was very inconsistent last season and riddled with injuries. Don’t expect a much better operation in 2019. I would personally place the under to keep it safe, but I would certainly understand an over bet.
Seven is a bit of a risk for any rookie linebacker in the NFL, and if I were you, I would go ahead and NOT take the risk on Josh Allen — this despite the elite season he had in 2018. I understand he had a powerful year in his senior campaign, but here’s the thing: It’s literally the only season he has on his resume where he broke over the 7.0 threshold. Go ahead and pass on this one as far as an over, take the under, but that doesn’t mean to take anything away from Allen. The kid was absolutely fantastic with the Kentucky Wildcats, and I expect him to be very successful in the National Football League. After only starting three games in his freshman year and calculating 0.5 sacks, he would storm out as a starter in his sophomore year and tally up 7.0 sacks for the year. He would match that in his junior year in 2017, also collecting 7.0 sacks. And then his breakout year happened: 2018. Allen would be an absolute force, piling up a crazy 17.0 sacks for the year. That season would bring him a unanimous All-American selection, the Chuck Bednarik Award, the Lott Trophy, the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, the SEC Defensive Player of the Year, and a unanimous first-team All-SEC selection. It was a powerful year, but like I said, it was just one season. Take the under just to be safe, but I would understand your risk at placing an over bet — especially with how talented the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense is.
I would go ahead and take the under bet in this one, the oddsmakers placing Kyler Murray’s interception total at 14.5 sounds like an early Christmas gift to me. That number is just way too high. When you look at Josh Rosen’s dismal rookie year for the Arizona Cardinals last season, you notice that he didn’t even eclipse the 14.5 mark — he would throw for 14. That alone is enough for me to place the under on this bet. But I have another argument to back up my bet on this one, and that’s that Kyler Murray didn’t throw anywhere near that many interceptions in a single season his entire college career. As a matter of fact, his whole career total doesn’t even eclipse the 14.5 threshold — he’s thrown 14 total interceptions throughout all of college. In his freshman year at Texas A&M University, Murray would tally just seven INT’s, and after transferring to the University of Oklahoma, he wouldn’t throw a single interception in that season. It wasn’t a full season, however, he would continue to impress in his first and only full season with the Sooners. He, again, would tally seven interceptions for the year. As I said, 14.5 is a gift, go ahead and take that under.
Wow, what a risky bet it would be to take the under in this one. 3,200 yards would be an impressive year for any NFL quarterback, and also higher expectations than what Murray deserves — even for a Heisman Trophy winner. The reason for those expectations is due to the Heisman and No. 1 pick hype that surrounds Murray, obviously, and he would also throw for an explosive 4,361 yards in his senior season at Oklahoma — he’d also have a crazy 42 touchdowns associated with that number. But here’s the thing, it was just one year. Can Murray take literally just one season of that kind of success and immediately transfer it over to the National Football League? I find it highly unlikely, especially with the Cardinals’ offensive line and an aging Larry Fitzgerald. Just check out Josh Rosen’s passing yardage from 2018: A total of 2,278. With all that being said, I would certainly pass on an over bet in this one. Don’t waste your money. Arizona has a lot more work to do than just a quarterback.
The reason why this prop bet exists on the list is because of the explosive offensive production from Kyler Murray last season, he would tally over one thousand yards at 1,001. He would also punch in 12 touchdowns via the rushing game. Before then, however, Murray would get nowhere near that number, nor the 475 threshold that the oddsmakers have placed. In his junior year at the University of Oklahoma, Murray would tally just 142 yards — more than 300 under the current threshold. In his freshman season at Texas A&M University, he would get a bit closer, but still no cigar with a rushing yards total of 335. Needless to say, I would easily place the under on this bet. I think Kyler Murray can have a level of effectiveness in 2019, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves here.
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