The Pro Bowl, the NFL’s version of the All-Star game, happens on Sunday, January 27, 2019 3pm ET and shown via ESPN/ABC.
Since 2010, the Pro Bowl has been played in the week before the Super Bowl. And for the 3rd consecutive year, it will be held at Orlando’s Camping World Stadium, From the 2013-15 seasons, players for the teams were selected via Captain’s pick through draft instead of the traditional conference by conference teams but that did not draw much interest from the public so the NFL went back to the usual AFC vs NFC format during the 2016 season.
Tom Brady was named to a record 14 “Pro Bowl” appearance this season. But because Brady’s teams have made it to 9 Super Bowls, he is a rarity in these exhibition games. This year is no exception and with Brady out, DeShaun Watson of Houston has taken over his slot. That means that the AFC will have Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck and Watson will play behind center for the AFC. Mahomes top receiver in Kansas City, Travis Kelce has already pulled out of the game.
As for the NFC, Drew Brees and Michael Thomas also pulled out presumably after the no-call that cost the Saints a trip to the Super Bowl. The two other quarterbacks named to the NFC teams were Jared Goff and Aaron Rodgers but the former is busy preparing for the Super Bowl and the latter is healing up after a banged up season. For now, the NFC’s trio of quarterbacks are Seahawks’ Russell Wilson, the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky and Cowboys’ Dak Prescott.
The lines aren’t out yet because there are still going to be names that are going to be dropped and added as has been the case in the past installments of this exhibition game. Still, we came up with our analysis and will be giving you some very valuable tips on who to bet on for the 2018 season’s Pro Bowl on January 27, 2019.
The AFC won last year 24-23 marking the first time since the NFC in 2008-09 won back to back Pro Bowl games. That win broke a 22-22 tie between the team in their all-time head to head matchup, giving the AFC the smallest of margins at 23-22 SU over the NFC. However, it’s really almost impossible to handicap a Pro Bowl game because it is just an exhibition game and players’ motivations are very questionable. But if you take a look at the trends, the underdogs are 9-4 SU in the last 13 Pro Bowls.
Last season the AFC was a three point underdog and won straight up by one point. The previous year, the AFC was also a five point underdog and won straight up by seven points. Prediction: It might be wise to take the plus money on the underdogs.
The last two Pro Bowls were decided by no more than a touchdown. Prior to those, the Pro Bowls for the seasons 2010-2012 were decided by at least two touchdowns. With the unpredictability of these games, I like going with the plus points-whichever that team is. I mean this is the Pro Bowl, the all-star game of the NFL so you can’t say anything negative on the quality of players. It’s interesting to note however that last year, the NFC closed as three point favorites but lost the game by one point, 23-24.
The NFC is 7-5 ATS in the last 12 installments of the Pro Bowl but as we said earlier, the AFC has won the last two. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last six AFC vs NFC format games with the 2012 edition a pick ‘em contest. Overall, the underdogs are 12-3 ATS since 2014 and have covered by an average margin of 6.37 points. Prediction: Take the plus points and roll with the underdogs.
The top of mind thought in the Pro Bowl is that it is “all offense and no defense” because it is just an exhibition game. That’s pretty much correct as since 2004, the average combined score between the two opposing teams is 68 points. The average combined score from 2004-2011 was 62.4 points but that ballooned to 76.1 from 2012-2018.
Five out of the last eight Pro Bowls have registered a total of at least 70 points. However, the last two editions have been unexpectedly low with 2017’s total of 33 being the lowest since 1998 and last year’s combined total of 43 being the 4th lowest total since 1998.
But while the total scores have been quite high, that has not necessarily translated to the over dominating because the oddsmakers always adjust the lines. That’s the reason why the over is just 7-8 in the last 15 Pro Bowls since 2004. Prediction: With the last two AFC vs NFC games being low scoring and the under 8-7 in the last 15, I’ll take the under. The video game score era may be over.
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