Conor McGregor is back.
The former two division world champion will return to the octagon on October 6th to challenge Khabib Nurmagomedov for the UFC lightweight title at UFC 229.
Actually, McGregor will be trying to reclaim the belt that was once his and which he never lost inside the octagon. McGregor won the UFC lightweight title by knocking out Eddie Alvarez at UFC 205. But after making history by becoming the first fighter to hold two world championships at the same time, McGregor never defended the belt (as well as his featherweight title) and he got stripped of his belts.
McGregor took 2017 off and decided to venture into boxing, losing via 10 round TKO to Floyd Mayweather Jr. last year. McGregor took the first half of 2018 off following the birth of his son, Conor Jr. and enjoying his spoils from the Mayweather clash. While McGregor was away, Nurmagomedov won the vacant title and took his rightful spot as the top lightweight in the promotion.
Not only will the McGregor vs Nurmagomedov fight decide the best lightweight in the business, it will also end the long standing beef between the two. It can be recalled that McGregor was involved in a dolly throwing incident last April where he ended up getting arrested and charged in court. That was triggered by Khabib Nurmagomedov, who figured into an altercation with McGregor’s teammate Artem Lobov at a hotel days before the incident.
When McGregor heard of Lobov’s standoff with Nurmagomedov, he took a jet and flew from Ireland to New York to confront Khabib. Nurmagomedov was on the bus that McGregor threw the dolly at but the two never met face to face on that day. They will finally get the chance to settle the issue on October 6th in a fight that should end their beef.
This is the fight that UFC fans have been waiting for and the one that Khabib Nurmagomedov has long asked for. Give credit to Conor McGregor because he’s taking the most dangerous opponent available in his first fight back from a 23 month layoff. UFC President Dana White says this could be the biggest fight in the UFC’s history and this time around, he may be correct.
Here are how the odds look as of August 5, 2018 according to the different oddsmakers:
When the fight was announced,Nurmagomedov opened as a -175 while McGregor came back at +145 at Bovada. The main reason behind this is the fact that McGregor has been away from the octagon for too long and during that period, Nurmagomedov has stamped his class on the UFC’s lightweight division.
On fight night, October 6th, McGregor will have been away from the UFC Octagon for 23 months. Remember that his last fight was in November 2016. Khabib also fought on that same UFC 205 event but since then, he’s logged in two more fights. Nurmagomedov rendered a one sided beatdown of Edson Barboza at UFC 219 and mauled Al Iaquinta at UFC 223 to win the vacant UFC lightweight title.
But not only did he fight and win twice, Khabib was very dominant in both fights. The Eagle defeated Barboza with scores of 30-25, 30-25 and 30-24 while he beat Iaquinta 50-43, 50-43 and 50-44. If you count the scores, there are a total of twelve 10-8 rounds in those six scorecards. That’s dominance.
As for McGregor, his only fight in between was his 2017 boxing bout with Floyd Mayweather Jr., which he lost via 10 round TKO. But while inactivity may have forced the Notorious One to open as underdog for the first time since being a +190 against Dustin Poirier in 2014, the lines are expected to move in his favor as soon as the Irish betting money arrives. Within hours, the odds have moved closer to even with Nurmagomedov at -160 and McGregor at +130. That’s where we stand as of this writing.
If at this point in time, you already have a pick in mind, you might want to bet on Nurmagomedov at Betway or 888sport since you’ll need just $150 to win $100 on Khabib. Meanwhile, if you like McGregor right now, the best site to bet is at Sportsbetting.ag and Betonline where a $100 bet on the Irishman currently yields $160.
With the lines expected to move in McGregor’s favor, then this is the right time to bet on the Notorious One because there is still enough plus money on him. That plus money is expected to shrink or even disappear as the fight continues to get closer. The opposite should be the case for Nurmagomedov. The nearer we are to fight night, the more Khabb’s odds get closer to even.
Skill-wise, this is a no-contest. Khabib Nurmagomedov is a complete fighter. The guy is a multiple time combat sambo world champ so no doubt about his striking. As for his grappling, Khabib is a NAGA world champion as well so there isn’t any holes in his game, really.
But then Conor McGregor is a different beast. He is one of the best strikers in the game and his left hand may be the most powerful in the lightweight division. While he has obvious disadvantages in wrestling and grappling (he tapped out rather easily against Nate Diaz, remember?), every fight starts standing up and when McGregor is on his feet, he floats like a bee and stings like a butterfly.
I can see this fight as a contrast of styles. Khabib will try to manhandle McGregor with his takedowns and wrestling while the Irishman will try to keep the Dagestani on his feet. Whoever imposes his game on the other, will most probably win.
Aside from their styles, one key factor in this fight is Conor McGregor’s mental toughness. Here’s one guy who has put unnecessary pressure on himself with his mouth yet he keeps on proving himself inside that octagon. Sure, he lost to Nate Diaz but remember that he returned to beat Diaz in the rematch. Other than that defeat, McGregor has been as spotless as Nurmagomedov.
McGregor’s mental toughness is hard to handicap but it cannot be denied. Every opponent has fallen prey to McGregor’s mind games. While there is no current indication that McGregor has gotten into Khabib’s head, wait till they start promoting the event and McGregor starts to open his mouth.
Another factor is the level of opposition. We’ve seen McGregor fight the biggest names, including Mayweather if you consider that. Nurmagomedov has been dominating but then against who? Tony Ferguson was supposed to test him, unfortunately that fight has not materialized after being booked four times.
Conor McGregor may be a loudmouth. But he’s always walked the talk against the who’s who in the sport. Ring rust may be an issue but given that McGregor is so tough mentally and he has enough time to train for this fight, no question the Irishman will be with his A-Game on fight night.
You can say that Khabib is going to take McGregor down as many times as he can in this fight. But remember that Chad Mendes put McGregor down four times and yet the Irishman knocked Mendes out in Round 2. McGregor’s takedown defense is at 73%. We’re just not sure how it holds against a world class grappler like Khabib. But between McGregor’s perceived grappling and wrestling weakness and Khabib’s lack of quality of opposition, we’re going with the former.
Conor McGregor has backed up his mouth with his fists. And yes, every round starts on the feet. McGregor doesn’t need to many left hands to knock you out. If he can avoid being taken down, Khabib is in trouble. I think the Irishman is the much smarter fighter and he’s going to win this fight via early knockout or on points. We’re picking Conor McGregor to win this fight.
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