The rematch the world has been waiting for is finally here.
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin will fight for the latter’s WBA(Super), WBC and IBO middleweight titles and the vacant Ring and Lineal middleweight titles on September 15, 2018 at the T-Mobile Arena is Las Vegas, Nevada.
These two fighters need no introduction so let’s get down to business. The first fight between these boxing superstars was a classic but it ended in controversy. Many felt ( including me) that Golovkin did enough to win that close bout. But not only was it ruled a split draw but the judge who scored it for Alvarez gave the Mexican a 118-110 victory on her scorecard. There was no way either fighter won 10 rounds, much more Canelo.
During that bout, Golovkin was busier by throwing more punches 703-505 and outlanding Alvarez 218-169 in total punches landed. But Alvarez landed more power punches 114-110 and was more accurate, landing 34% of his punches as compared to Triple G’s 31%. Breaking down the punch stats per round, Golovkin out landed Canelo in total punches landed in 10 out of the 12 rounds of the fight.
Those Compubox numbers, although they were close, pointed to Golovkin as the winner. Still, Canelo walked away with a draw and many credit Adalaide Byrd’s 118-110 scorecard for that decision. That bout and its scorecards were in the headlines for weeks and even months. And that’s the reason why these guys wanted to run it back again. The rematch was booked for Cinco de Mayo weekend this year but was moved to September 15 after Canelo was suspended for failing a drug test.
During the first fight, Golovkin closed as the favorite at -151 while Canelo came back at +131. For the rematch, Triple G is also the favorite and he is currently( as of 9/12/18) at -155 and Alvarez at +125. In the first bout, the reason why Triple G was favored was the fact that it was Canelo who was moving up in weight to challenge him. Even though Golovkin was coming off a UD win over Daniel Jacobs then, GGG scored a 4th round knockdown.
In the rematch, Golovkin is still favored because many believe that he won the first fight anyway. Also, Canelo is coming off a drug suspension so that could have implications on him. It can be recalled that Alvarez tested positive for clenbuterol but he blamed it on Mexican beef. Still, he was handed down a six month suspension and hasn’t fought in a year. Triple G took a tune-up fight and although it lasted less than two rounds, he still kept himself busy.
The failed drug test could have an effect on Canelo in terms of ring rust, confidence and if you’ve seen some of his “before and after pictures”, there’s a difference in his physique. De La Hoya says it’s part of the strategy to beat Golovkin. A leaner Canelo moves faster to avoid Triple G’s big bombs. I don’t think so. Remember former flyweight champ Juan Francisco Estrada recently referenced Canelo when he said “I eat beef, I don’t inject it.” Personally, I think Canelo is lean because he’s now clean. Period.
These are two high quality fighters who delivered an incredible fight one year ago. Canelo is the more skilled fighter here but Golovkin has the edge in power. Both have granite chins and have never been knocked down before. We can go on and on but the bottomline is Gennady Golovkin won that first fight.
We think that this fight is going to be just as good but the circumstances surrounding Canelo Alvarez could be the difference here. Canelo is coming off a six month suspension and that could hurt him both physically and mentally. Golovkin is eager to prove that he won the first fight and that should be added motivation for him. Triple G has promised to bring the hurt this time around and I think the animosity between them this time around brings out the killer in Golovkin. Canelo’s body look entirely different from what it was last year. Golovkin is going to chop him down like a tree and stop him at some point in the second half of the fight. We’re picking Gennady Golovkin to beat Canelo Alvarez on 9/15/18.
If you don’t like the current betting line, there are other bets to make for this fight. Bovada has some several prop bets for the fight and some may interest you. Here they are ( as of 9/12/18):
The first fight was really close and if until know, you are still undecided on who’s gonna come out on top this time around, then you can just bet on how this fight will end. The first bout went the full route so that’s the reason why the YES is at -170. If you think this isn’t ending differently, go for the YES. But given the animosity between the two, both are definitely going for the KO here. Personally, I’m betting on a Golovkin win via stoppage. But you can also argue that Triple G has added another year in age while Canelo is in tremendous shape as per his “selfies”. So who knows if Canelo is going to get the stoppage too. Prediction: No +170
The first prop bet we featured above only answers how the fight will end. This one is more specific because the fight is divided into four three round groups plus of course the option that it’s going the full route. Again, this is from Bovada as of 9/12/18:
18 of Golovkin’s 34 knockouts have come between Round 1-3, 8 between Rounds 4-6, 6 between 7-9 and only 2 between 10-12. But Canelo Alvarez has a granite chin as well and like Triple G, he’s never been knocked down before. However, Canelo hasn’t fought in a year because of the drug suspension and he’s fought twice each year since 2012. Triple G fought Martirosyan when Canelo was removed from their May 5 date. I think the long layoff affects Canelo and GGG gets the stoppage. I’m torn between a quick KO or a middle round KO here. I’m giving Canelo’s chin plenty of respect but I don’t think his “new physique” can take the body shots in the later rounds. Prediction: Rounds 7-9 +50
Now we go to a more specific bet: Who wins and how? These are easier because unlike the previous prop bets where you’re supposed to pick a round or a group of rounds, this one doesn’t. Just pick your guy and tell us how he wins. All odds here are at a plus so the yields are better than just picking the winner. These odds are from Bovada as of 9/12/18:
The first fight ended in a draw right? So does that make the +1800 tempting?No, because lightning doesn’t strike twice here, in my opinion. What about Canelo by KO at +800? I don’t like that either because for one, Golovkin has never been knocked down before-not in the pros and not in the amateurs. Canelo landed plenty of good shots in the first fight but Triple G never looked in trouble, except that he could lose on points. On the other hand, I thought Canelo felt the power of GGGs punches and the Mexican even buckled at least one time. Golovkin was Mr. Nice Guy in Fight 1. After Canelo’s drug fiasco which moved their May bout to September, he says he wants to “hurt Canelo” and I believe him. Prediction: Golovkin by KO, TKO or DQ +225
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