The Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Indians play Game 3 of their current set at the Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio on Thursday, September 20, 2018.
Entering Wednesday’s games, the White Sox have lost 9 out of their last 12 games and at 51-91, they are having one rough season. The Indians have not been as good lately with five losses in their last eight games but with the American League Central in the bag, the tribe may be just trying to stay healthy as the regular season draws to a close.
The White Sox have lost three in a row coming to this game and they need to win four out of their remaining 11 games to avoid the fourth 100-loss season in franchise history.
James Shields will get the start for the White Sox. The 36 year old veteran has started in a total of 31 games this season and has posted a record of 7-16 with an ERA of 4.53 and a WHIP of 1.30. Shields ranks 4th in the American League in innings pitched this season at 192.2.
In his last outing, Shields picked up the win as the White Sox defeated the Baltimore Orioles 8-6 last September 14th. The right hander from Newhall, California gave up two runs on four hits (two of which were home runs) and one walk with five strikeouts. The win was Shields’ second in his last three starts but was his first road win since opening day in Kansas City.
Shields is 1-1 in two starts against Cleveland this season, giving up an ERA of 1.93 while allowing the Indians a batting average of .212 in a total of 14.0 innings pitched. For his career, Shields has an overall record of 5-8 against the Indians, including a 3-3 resume with a 4.47 ERA at Progressive Field.
For the Cleveland Indians, it will be 33 year old Josh Tomlin who will open on top of the mound on Thursday. Tomlin has pitched in a total of 29 games this season, seven of which were starts. He has a season record of 1-5 with an ERA of 6.49 and a WHIP of 1.51. Tomlin has been a relief pitcher for most of the season but with the Tribe tinkering their starting rotation in preparation for the playoffs, he’s getting the nod in this game.
In his last outing, Tomlin gave up 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 strike with two strikeouts in four innings with two strikeouts. He did not factor in the decision as the Indians lost to the Detroit Tigers 4-5 on September 14th. It was Tomlin’s first start since May and getting another start on Thursday suggests that he may be the Indians’ 5th starter replacing Adam Plutko.
In seven starts this year, Tomlin is a winless 0-3 with an ERA of 7.68 while giving up a total of 16 home runs in a total of 34 innings pitched as a starter. The Indians are 1-8 in the last 9 games where Tomlin has pitched at least one inning.
The Cleveland Indians are 46-17 in their last 63 games played on a Thursday and are 39-15 in their last 54 Game 3s of a series. They have also a 75-30 record in their last 105 games against American League Central teams. On the other hand, the White Sox are 1-4 in their last five Game 3s of a series and 1-8 in their last 9 Thursday games. Against American Central teams, Chicago has has lost five of their last six games. The White Sox are also 0-8 at Progressive Field this season.
The team trends point to Cleveland and if you look at their season performances, it’s the Indians who are no doubt the better team in this matchup. They lead the season series 12-3 heading to Thursday’s game. But then Tomlin hasn’t been as good as his team has been this season and I don’t think it’s worth risking a -185 bet on him. Neither am I confident in Shields who has been inconsistent all season long and the White Sox are 3-13 in the last 16 starts by James Shields against teams with a winning record. When you have two pitchers with a combined 21 losses pitted against each other, it’s a tough call. If you force me to choose, I’m picking the Indians to win but I’m not betting on the moneyline in this game. Instead, I’m going with the OVER/UNDER here.
With two struggling pitchers on opposite sides, you can expect runs from both sides. The Over/Under line has been set at 10:
The combined ERA of both pitchers is over 11 and I think that’s an indication of how the score will be on Thursday. Prediction: Over 10
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