The Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks square off on Wednesday, 10/24/18 in Atlanta in a showdown between the teams who figured in a blockbuster trade on 2018 NBA Draft night.
The Atlanta Hawks drafted Luka Doncic with the 3rd pick of the 2018 NBA Draft but ended up trading him to the Dallas Mavericks two picks later for 5th pick Trae Young and a future asset. Both Doncic and Young are having excellent starts to their respective NBA careers. Dallas is 2-1 on the season while the Hawks are 1-2.
The Mavericks are having some kind of success in Dallas and DeAndre Jordan is probably the biggest reason why the Mavericks are above .500 for the first time since the end of the 2015-16 NBA season. Mavs coach Rick Carlisle has gone on record to call DJ “sensational” while pointing to his inside presence as the key to their success this season.
Jordan is averaging 17 points,12.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game while shooting 70% from the floor. Jordan is the first Mavs player in the last 24 years to open the season with three straight double doubles. But what’s more impressive about DeAndre Jordan’s opening week is that he’s made 15 out of 16 free throws. Not bad for someone who is a career 47% from the line.
Mavs’ prized rookie Luka Doncic is also playing very well for the team. The 18 year old Slovenian sensation is currently averaging 18.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.0 steals per game. After going 0-5 from the three point area in his NBA debut, Doncic has made 7 out of his last 17 three pointers (41%) making him an even more dangerous player on offense.
The Atlanta Hawks raised many eyebrows when they traded Luka Doncic for Trae Young on draft night. But slowly but surely, Young is proving his worth not just to Atlanta but to the league in general. After scoring 15 points on 5-14 shooting in a 19 point loss during his NBA debut, Young has bounced back with a pair of very solid games for the Hawks.
Young had 20 points and 9 assists on 4-9 three point shooting in their October 19 loss to the Grizzlies and then poured in 35 points and 11 assists with 6 three pointers, the best statline for any NBA rookie in the last 8 seasons, as the Hawks beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 133-111 on Sunday to notch their first win of the season. If he keeps this up, the Hawks should be able to compete this season.
Aside from Young, the Hawks are also getting excellent play from third year man Taurean Prince. The 12th pick of the 2016 NBA draft out of Baylor is averaging a career best 21.0 points per game. Prince has made 8-22 three pointers (36%) this season and is shooting 47.8% from the field.
The all-time head to head between these two teams is at 42-32 in favor of the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta has also won the last nine meetings between these two teams and the last time the Mavs defeated the Hawks was on October 30, 2013, when current Sixers General Manager Elton Brand was still playing for the Hawks.
The Mavericks are 4-13 SU in their last 17 games and are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games. The Atlanta Hawks are 5-16 SU in their last 21 games but are 5-0 SU in their last five games against the Mavericks and are also 5-0 SU at home against Dallas. I fancy the Mavs because of their lineup and because they have a defensive force that Atlanta doesn’t in DeAndre Jordan. But the trends are too strong in favor of the Hawks. Trae Young is having a great start and Dallas was 9-32 on the road last season. In a game between two unproven teams, I will go with the team with home court advantage here. We’re picking the Atlanta Hawks to beat the Dallas Mavericks on 10/24/18.
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games while Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games. Head to head, the Hawks are 8-1 ATS against the Mavs and 4-1 ATS against Dallas when playing in Atlanta.
The Hawks’ average winning margin during their current 9 game win streak over the Mavs is 7.77 points. But if you take a look at the scores, it’s either the Hawks win big or they win a close game. Six wins have been by six points or less while three have been by 15 or more points. As for the 1.5 spread, only one game in those nine wins have come by less than two points and none since 2014. Either way, I don’t think is is going to be decided by a single point but I’m picking the Hawks to win SU anyway. Prediction: Hawks +1.5
The total has gone over in 6 out of the last 8 games played by Dallas and also over in all of Atlanta’s last five games played. Against each other though, the under is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings.
Interestingly, these two teams have NOT combined to score at least 233 points in their last 10 meetings. However, this is a new season and the Hawks rank 6th in scoring at 119 and the Mavs are 7th at 118.3. Defensively both teams are giving up 122 points per game too. This has been a very offensive minded season so far with 20 teams averaging at least 110 points per game not to mention that there are also 20 teams giving up at least 105 points per game.
The Hawks rank 2nd in the league in pace at 111.3 possessions per game and both teams are in the Top 10 in three pointers made per game. Atlanta is scoring 31 transition points per game while Dallas is not far back at 21. These teams love to push the ball, shoot the three ball and not play defense. Prediction Over 233
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