Who would have thought that heading to their 30th game of the season, the Denver Nuggets would have the best record in the Western Conference? I’m not sure if the Nuggets foresaw that too but that’s what we’ll be having on Tuesday when Denver hosts the Dallas Mavericks at the Pepsi Center on 12/18/18.
The Dallas Mavericks recently got back 21 year veteran Dirk Nowitzki back in action after the German superstar missed their first 26 games with an ankle injury. Nowitzki is no longer expected to put up his old MVP numbers but his return was supposed to be a moral booster for the Mavs. Instead, Dallas has gone 0-2 with Dirk back after they had won 12 out of their last 15 games.
The Mavericks have found a gem in 18 year old Rookie Luka Doncic who has been spectacular so far in his first NBA season. Doncic is averaging 18.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.07 steals for Dallas. Not only is he leading the team in scoring but he hasn’t been shy when put in the big moments. Doncic has scored 20 or more points in 14 games this season. DeAndre Jordan is putting up a double-double in his first season in Dallas. DJ is averaging 11.0 points and 13.9 rebounds per game.
Dallas is the 17th best scoring team in the NBA right now at 109.6 points per game. The Mavericks are ranked 23rd in assists at 22.6 dimes per contest. On the other end, Dallas has the 12th best numbers off the glass as they average 45.8 rebounds per game. The Mavs are also allowing their opponents to score just 110.1 points per game which is ranked 10th overall in the league right now.
The Denver Nuggets are playing without three starters from their opening game line-up. Swingman Will Barton has missed the last two months after undergoing core muscle surgery. Guard Gary Harris is out with a hip injury while all-star forward Paul Millsap is down with a toe injury. Despite their absence, the Nuggets have managed to put together a 20-9 season, thanks mainly to Nikola Jokic.
Jokic is a master of all trades. He leads the Nuggets with 17.7 points, 9.9 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 1.4 steals per game. Jokic is averaging 25.3 points, 11.8 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.5 steals per game in their last four games. The Nuggets are 3-1 SU in their last four played. Jamal Murray is averaging 17.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game for the Nuggets.
Denver ranks 18th in the league in team scoring at 109.4 points per game. The Nuggets are the third best passing team in the NBA right now with their 26.7 assists per game average. Mike Malone’s squad is also 8th overall in rebounding at 47.1 boards hauled per contest. They are also allowing opponents to score only 102.9 points per game, which is the third best scoring defense in the league.
The Mavericks and Nuggets have played a total of 170 regular season games. Dallas has won 88 of those games while Denver was victorious in 82. The Nuggets have won five out of the last seven meetings between these teams but the Mavericks won their most recent matchup, a 118-107 win in Dallas last 3/6/18.
Dallas is 3-2 SU in their last five games played. The Mavericks are 2-10 SU on the road this season. Denver is 3-2 SU in their last five games played. The Nuggets are 12-3 SU at home this season. Head to head, the Nuggets are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games against the Mavericks.
The Mavericks went on a hot streak to go over the .500 mark after a slow start. But Dallas seems to have cooled off as they’ve lost two in a row and four out of their last ten games played. Meanwhile, the Nuggets continue to battle injuries yet they continue to find ways to win. The Nuggets have won eight of their last 10 games including three in a row despite missing three starters from their opening day lineup.
For this game, Barton, Millsap and Harris are still out of commission while for Dallas, Dennis Smith Jr. is likely to miss this game too as he’s missed five out of their last six games. However, backup point guard Monte Morris has averaged 13.5 points in Denver’s last six games to provide the much needed help for Jokic who ha been putting up big numbers as of late. Dallas has struggled on the road while the Nuggets have been excellent at the Pepsi Center. We’re picking the Denver Nuggets to beat the Dallas Mavericks on 12/18/18.
The Mavericks are 17-11 ATS in 28 games played this season. Dallas is 5-7 ATS in their 12 road games this season. The Nuggets are 18-11 ATS in 29 games played this season. Denver is an impressive 11-4 ATS in 15 home games played so far. Head to head, the Mavericks are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings including 3-0 ATS in their most recent three games against each other.
Denver is on a mean streak right now, going 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. They are also 6-0 SU and ATS in their last six games played at home and the Nuggets are also 5-2 ATS in the month of December. I think the Nuggets are on a a roll and Dallas doesn’t have the goods to stop them. The Mavs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at the Pepsi Center. Prediction: Nuggets -5
The under is 14-13-1 in the 28 games played by Mavericks this season. The over and under are at an even 6-6 in the Mavericks’ 12 road games played so far. The total has gone under in 18 out of the 29 games played by the Nuggets this season. The under is 9-6 in Denver’s 15 games played at the Pepsi Center.
The under is 4-1 in their last five head to head meetings played in Denver. The Nuggets play lockdown defense, 3rd best in the NBA and have given up an average of 100.4 points per game in their last five games played and 94.33 points during their current three game win streak. On the other hand, Dallas is just the 17th ranked scoring team in the NBA and they don’t put up much points as well, averaging 105.0 points in their last six games played. Prediction: Under 207.5
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