The Dallas Mavericks take on the Houston Rockets in a Western Conference showdown at the Toyota Center on Wednesday night.
After a poor 2-7 start, the Dallas Mavericks have won 7 of their last nine games and have climbed to an even 9-9 on the season. With a current two game winning streak and four wins in their last five games, the Mavs hope the momentum will push them to go over the .500 mark for the first time this season.
18 year old rookie Luka Doncic has been good as advertised for Dallas. The European superstar currently averages 19.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.0 steals per game for the Mavericks. Doncic hasn’t just put up great numbers, he’s also played with the poise of a grizzled veteran. DeAndre Jordan has likewise been solid for Dallas on defense, giving the Mavs 13.6 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game. Jordan has also incredibly made 78% of his free throws this season.
Dallas ranks 15th in the NBA in team scoring at 110.1 points per game. The Mavericks are also ranked only 21st in assists at 22.7 dimes per contest. Defensively, Dallas is 7th in the league in points allowed at 108.6 points per game. However, the Mavericks rank only 17th in rebounds with their 44.6 rebounds per game average.
While the Mavs hope to climb above the .500 mark, the Houston Rockets were above that benchmark before losing three games in a row. Now at 9-10, the Rockets hope to get back on track and return to the form which carried them to the 2018 Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors.
League scoring leader James Harden tops Houston with his 31.5 points scoring average. The Bearded One is also averaging 5.3 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game for the Rockets. Harden is coming off an explosive 54 point night against the Washington Wizards but like some of his big scoring games this season, the Rockets lost the game. Chris Paul has missed the Rockets’ last two games and is questionable for this contest.
Despite Harden’s offensive brilliance, the Rockets rank only 21st in the league in team scoring at 108.2 points per game while placing 28th in assists at 20.4 assists per game even if they have two excellent playmakers in Harden and Chris Paul. Houston’s scoring defense is solid at #10 in the league at 109.3 points per game allowed but they only rank 28th in rebounds at 40.8 rebounds per contest.
The Mavericks and Rockets have played a total of 175 regular season games all-time. The Rockets hold the series lead at 94-81 and have won 10 out of their last 11 meetings including the last eight as Houston has swept Dallas 4-0 in each of the last seasons.
The Mavericks are 6-1 SU in their last seven games played but are 1-7 SU in their 8 road games played so far this season. The Rockets are 2-3 SU in their last five games played and are just an even 4-4 SU in 8 home games played this season. Head to head, the Rockets are 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings against the Mavericks and are 5-0 SU in their last five home games against Dallas.
Dallas has been playing better than Houston in the last week or so but the Rockets’ losses have come on the road. Houston gets a chance to get their bearings back at home and this improved Dallas squad should provide them a good challenge. Scoring has been Houston’s problem this season but that’s not going to be the story against the Mavs. Dallas may be averaging more points than Houston but the Rockets have the 10th best scoring defense in the league and should be able to contain Dallas. The Mavs are 1-7 SU on the road this season. We’re picking the Houston Rockets to beat the Dallas Mavericks on 11/28/18.
The Mavericks are a good 12-6 ATS in 18 games played this season. Dallas is also 4-4 ATS in eight road games played so far. The Rockets are 7-12 ATS in 19 games this season. Houston is also just 3-5 ATS in 8 home games played so far. Head to head, the Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against the Mavericks.
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Rockets and are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Houston. Dallas is playing better right now but the Rockets are still the better team. However, without Chris Paul and Gerald Green who are both listed as “questionable” for this contest, I can’t pick the Rockets to win by more than five points. Prediction: Mavericks +7
The total has gone over in 10 out of the 18 games played by the Mavericks so far this season. The over and under are at an even 4-4 in Dallas’ 8 road games played so far. The over is 11-8 in Houston’s 19 games played this season and the total has gone over in 5 of the 9 home games that Houston has hosted so far. Head to head, the under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams including 4-0 in their last four meetings.
The total has gone under in 8 out of the Rockets last 10 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. The under is also 12-5-1 in the Mavericks’ last 18 games played against Southwest Division opponents. If Paul and Green are a no go, then the under is the play for this game. Prediction: Under 215
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