Nikola Jokic is doing everything for the Nuggets. The Joker is averaging 18.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 1.5 steals per game to lead his team. Jamal Murray is Denver’s second leading scorer at 18.5 points per game while the comebacking Gary Harris is 16.1 points per game on the season.
Entering Monday’s game versus the Rockets, Denver is the third best defensive team in the league, allowing opponents to score just 105.2 points per game. The Nuggets are also ranked 2nd in assists at 27.2 dimes per contest and 6th off the glass with 47.1 rebounds per game. Denver is scoring 110.6 points per game which is 17th among 30 NBA teams.
Josh Richardson leads the Heat in scoring at 18.3 points per game. Hassan Whiteside has a double-double average at 12.8 points and 12.7 rebounds per game. Dwyane Wade, playing in his final NBA season, is still putting up decent numbers with 14.0 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game. Justise Winslow and Tyler Johnson are also averaging in double-digits at 11.6 points and 11.2 points per game, respectively.
Miami averages 106.5 points per game which puts them at 25th overall in the entire NBA. The Heat are ranked 5th in rebounding at 47.4 boards per contest and 2nd in passing at 27.2 assists per game. Miami is the 7th best defensive scoring team, holding opponents to just 105.8 points per game this season.
The Nuggets are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played. Denver is also 10-8 SU in 18 road games played so far. The Heat are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games played. Miami is 9-11 SU at home this season. Head to head, the Heat are 6-4 SU in their last 10 meetings.
The Miami Heat have been resurgent after a slow start. The Heat have won eight out of their last 11 games played and were on a six-game winning streak before losing to the lowly Atlanta Hawks in their last outing. Miami has been one of the most improved teams in the last month or so but despite that, their inconsistency scares the heck of out me. Miami has the knack to beat or compete with the top teams but lose to the bottom teams.
The Nuggets meanwhile have struggled on the road, losing five out of their last seven. But more than them continuing to lose away from home, I think they break out of that streak soon and soon may be on Tuesday against a Miami team that is just 9-11 at home this season. This should be a well-contested game which could very well go down to the final possession. That said, I’ll roll with the team that has been more consistent all season long and that’s Denver. We’re picking the Denver Nuggets to beat the Miami Heat on 1/8/19.
Denver is 21-16 ATS in 37 games played this season and the Nuggets are 8-10 ATS on the road this season. Miami is 21-17 ATS in 39 games played this season and the Heat are 9-11 ATS in 20 home games played so far. Head to head, the Heat are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 meetings against the Nuggets.
You can make an argument that the Nuggets are playing on the second game of a back to back and must be tired in this game. However, Denver is in fact 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on zero-days rest. Denver is also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Southeast Division. On the other hand, the Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall games against the Nuggets. Miami is also 0-6 ATS in their last six Tuesday games played.
Denver hasn’t been solid on the road but the Heat have been inconsistent as well. Remember that Miami is coming off a blowout loss to the Hawks (they are 0-3 against Atlanta). I think this is a toss-up and in such games, you like to bet on the home team. But the road team here is Denver, who is the best team in the NBA right now. Give me my plus points and the Nuggets. Prediction: Nuggets +1.5
The under is 20-16-1 in Denver’s 37 games this season. The Nuggets have seen the under hit in 10 out of 18 road games played. On the other hand, the total has gone over in 21 out of the 38 games played by the Heat this season. The over is 11-9 in Miami’s 20 games played this season.
The over is 6-1 in Miami’s last seven games overall and the over has also hit in the Nuggets’ last four games played. Miami’s offense has sputtered this season and these teams both have Top 10 defenses this season. I think defense dictates this game and it should end up a low scoring affair. Prediction: Under 209.5
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