The Georgia Bulldogs make the trip to Louisiana to face the LSU Tigers at Tiger Stadium in an SEC battle that is probably the best college football matchup of the week.
Last week, the Georgia vs LSU tussle was looking like a Top 5 showdown but after LSU stumbled against the Florida Gators, they have fallen eight spots from their Top 25 ranking. On the other hand, the Georgia Bulldogs kept their clean slate with a 41-13 win over Vanderbilt last Saturday.
With their 6th straight win last weekend, the Georgia Bulldogs are rolling right now. After nearly winning the national championship last season, Georgia has picked up where it left off, beating every opponent it has faced so far by at least two touchdowns.
Quarterback Jake Fromm, who shone for the Bulldogs as a freshman last season, has continued to impress by completing almost 73% of his passes and averaging 10.53 yards per completion. Fromm has passed for a total of 1,200 yards this season with 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Elijah Holyfield and D’Andre Swift have provided Fromm with excellent ground backup as the two have combined to run for 722 yards with 7 touchdowns for the Bulldogs this season. The Georgia rushing game averages 245.2 yards per game while their air assault is producing 240 passing yards per contest.
While the Bulldogs kept on rolling last week, the Tigers stumbled for the first time this season as LSU suffered a 19-27 setback at the hands of the Florida Gators. Prior to that, LSU had been one of the big surprises of the year after racking up five consecutive wins to start the season.
That changed last week when LSU faced their biggest test of the season in Florida. The Gators’ defense sacked quarterback Joe Burrow five times while forcing him to throw two interceptions as LSU’s offensive line could not hold off Florida’s tough defensive crew. But while Burrow and the passing game struggled against the Florida defense, LSU’s running game was still solid. The Tigers picked up 180 yards on the ground on 41 carries and their running game produced their two touchdowns in the game. Nick Brossette scored both touchdowns and he has ran for 576 yards with a total of 8 scores this season.
Georgia is 5-0 SU in their last five games and 5-0 SU in their last five home games. Louisiana State is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games and 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home. However, it’s the Georgia Bulldogs who hold at 4-2 SU advantage in their last 6 meetings against LSU.
Both teams have been solid this season. But the only time the Bulldogs trailed this season was 3-0 in the first quarter against Vanderbilt and that was for well, just 15 seconds. A 75 yard touchdown from Fromm to Goodwin quickly erased that deficit. Add the fact that they have the 2nd best defense in the nation in points allowed and 7th in yards given up, then I think we have a very solid favorite here in Georgia.
LSU’s offensive strength is its running game and with Georgia also owning the 20th best run defense in FBS, I don’t think the LSU Tigers can pull off the upset even if they are a tough bunch to play at home. We’re picking the Georgia Bulldogs to beat the LSU Tigers on 10/13/18.
Georgia is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record and 14-3 in their last 17 games on the road against teams with winning records.
On the other hand, LSU is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games at home and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games. Both teams have fared well against the spread but it’s worth noting that in the Georgia vs LSU matchup, the road team is 3-01 ATS in their last four meetings.
LSU’s offense isn’t as good as Georgia’s because they rely more on their running game. On the other hand, Georgia’s offense is well balanced and high powered. So even if you consider both defenses to be equally good (although Georgia does have the better defense), the Bulldogs should be able to win this game by more than one touchdown. Prediction Georgia -7.5
The total has gone over in 6 out of the last 8 games played by Georgia on the road. The total has also gone over in four out of the last 6 games of Louisiana State and over in 4 out of the last 5 home games for LSU. Head to head, the total is 6-1 in the last 7 games between Georgia and LSU and also four out of the last five games between these teams in LSU’s home field.
The average combined score between these teams in the six of their last seven games where the total has gone over is 59.43. Georgia is currently averaging 42.83 points per game this season. The’ve scored at least 41 points in five of their six games with 38 points as their lowest output of the season. I think Georgia can cover 50 on a good night. If not, LSU does have a good offense to help carry the total to over 50. Prediction: Over 50
Georgia is a solid favorite here but at -310 in the moneyline odds. Both the spread odds and over/under odds for Georgia have good value at -110 and -116 respectively so you can pick whichever you’re comfortable at but personally, I’d pick the over 50 because I think that scoring won’t be a problem for the Bulldogs in this game.
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