The Green Bay Packers make the trip to Foxboro, Massachusetts when they take on the New England Patriots at the Gillette Stadium in the Week 9 edition of Sunday Night Football on 11/4/18.
When it comes to an all-time quarterback duel, it doesn’t get any better than Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady. This is only the second head to head matchup between the two all-time greats. The first time out, Rodgers outshone Brady 368 to 245 in total passing yards as the Packers beat the Patriots 26-21 in November 30, 2014.
After dominating the Buffalo Bills with their defense in their most recent game, the New England Patriots have now won five in a row and are now at 6-2 and second behind the Kansas City Chiefs on top of the AFC team standings. Tom Brady led the Patriots with 324 yards while Julian Edelman had 9 catches and 104 yards but it wa their defense which allowed just 46 yards on the ground including only 32 from Chris Ivory.
Heading to this game, Tom Brady has thrown for 2200 yards with 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions this season. Sony Michel leads New England with 422 yards and 4 scores on the ground while James White leads the team with 459 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Michel, Edelman and Rob Gronkowski are questionable as of 11/1/18 but given the spotlight on this game, they all could suit up for the Pats.
The Packers were so close to taking the “O” from the Rams record as they jumped out with a 10-0 lead before the Rams pulled off the win. The Packers have now lost two out of their last 3 games after their defense has yielded at least 30 points per game in those games. If they are to beat New England, they need to play better defense and execute better because the Patriots are clicking on all cylinders right now.
Aaron Rodgers was hampered by a knee injury which he suffered in Green Bay’s season opener. But he’s thrown for 2,283 yards with 13 scores and just one pick off. Rodgers’ primary target has been Davante Adams who has logged in three straight games with at least 132 receiving yards. Aaron Jones had season highs with 12 carries and 86 yards with one touchdown against the Rams last week. After Ty Montgomery’s trade to Baltimore, Jones should have an expanded role in this game.
The Packers are 3-6-1 SU in their last 10 games played and 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road. On the other hand, the Patriots are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home and 5-0 SU in their last 5 games overall. Against Green Bay though, New England is just 2-4 SU in their last 6 meetings.
It’s the fourth time this season that the Packers have been tagged as underdogs and they have gone 0-2-1 SU in the first three. Green Bay has also won thrice in their last 12 road games. They may no longer be the elites that they used to be for a long time but these Packers are still very dangerous. You can’t look farther than their narrow loss to the Rams the last time out.
Rodgers and Brady are two of the best quarterbacks of this generation and I expect them to put on a show. But the Patriots have been the better teams this year and they are also playing at their home field. I’m not sure if the drama will be there but I think the Patriots are going to stay dominant at their home field. We’re picking the New England Patriots to beat the Green Bay Packers on 11/4/18.
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at home. and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Head to head, Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against New England and also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in New England.
The Patriots have won 11 straight games at home by an average winning margin of 14.82 points and nine of those wins have been by at least seven points. On the other hand, the Packers have lost their last five games by an average margin of 11.0 points. Rodgers vs Brady is as good as you get when it comes to an all-time quarterback duel. But I don’t think it will be this close. I have New England winning by at least one touchdown so I’m picking the Pats to beat the spread here. Prediction: New England -5.5
The over is 10-3 in Green Bay’s last 13 games and the over is also 7-1 in the Packers’ last 8 road games. However, the total has gone under in four out of the last five games played between these two teams. Green Bay has gone over in seven of their last eight games played at night. Likewise, the over is 7-1 in the last eight night home games for New England.
The New England offense has been clicking at their home field. The Patriots are averaging 39.67 points per game in their last three home games and 36.4 points per game in their last 5 games overall. Meanwhile, the Packers have the fifth worst road defense in the league at 30.3 points per game allowed. Green Bay has yielded 29 or more points in five games played this season. This has the makings of a high scoring affair. Prediction: Over 56.5
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