The Houston Rockets hit the road and face the defending NBA champions Golden State Warriors in a rematch of the 2018 Western Conference Finals.
These teams were expected to be the top two teams in the league this season after slugging it out in last season’s West Finals. But both teams started out slow and are still working their way back to the top.
The Rockets enter this game on a five game winning streak and winners of 10 out of their last 11 games played. James Harden has been rewriting the record books by going on fire in their last 10 games. The reigning NBA MVP is averaging a staggering 40.8 points per game in his last 10 games played and is coming off a 43-10-13 triple double outing against the Memphis Grizzlies on New Year’s eve.
Harden is the top scorer in the league at 33.3 points per game. The Bearded One is also contributing 5.8 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 2.1 steals per game for the Rockets. Starting center Clint Capela is posting a double double average at 17.0 points and 12.5 rebounds while newcomer Austin Rivers has been a big help off the bench at 10.5 points per game scored.
Houston is only 19th in scoring at 109.9 points per game and are 28th in assists at 21.1 dimes per contest. The Rockets are the 11th best defensive team in the NBA in terms of scoring defense as they’ve allowed just 108.3 points per game. The Rockets are 26th off the glass at 42.1 rebounds per game this season.
The defending NBA champions Golden State Warriors have been playing inconsistent basketball lately, going just 6-4 in their last 10 games played. The Dubs though enter this game with back to back road wins over the Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns. However, the Warriors have lost their last two games at home and will be facing a red hot team in the Rockets.
Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant lead the Warriors’ offensive juggernaut with 28.8 points and 28.5 points per game, respectively. Draymond Green is scoring just 7.3 points per game but he is the top Warrior in rebounds (7.8 RPG), assists (6.6 APG) and steals (1.8 SPG). Klay Thompson is scoring 21.0 points per game but is shooting just 43.9% from the floor and 34.4% from behind the three point area.
Golden State is the 3rd highest scoring team in the league at 115.8 points per game and the Dubs lead the NBA in assists with an average of 27.9 per game. The Warriors are 10th in rebounding at 45.9 boards per contest. Defensively, the champs allow 111.3 points per game which puts them at 18th among 30 teams.
Houston is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games played. The Rockets are 8-10 SU on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Dubs are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games and 15-5 SU at home this season. However, the Warriors have lost thrice at home during their last 10 games played so they are certainly not unbeatable at the Oracle Arena. Head to head, these teams have split their last 10 meetings. Houston also beat Golden State 107-86 last November. The Dubs will say Curry missed that game but the Rockets will say Harden wasn’t playing as good then as he is now.
The Rockets are the hottest team in the league right now and they are picking up wins left and right as James Harden continues to light up the scoreboards. The Bearded one has scored 35 or more points in eight straight games and will be looking to add a 9th that will put him at par with LeBron’s nine-game run in 2006 and which will make him only the third player since the NBA/ABA merger to do so. With Harden playing like the MVP and with Golden State not having a big who can match Clint Capela, I think the Rockets have the advantage here, even if they are playing on the road. The Rockets have won five games in a row and 10 out of their last 11 games.
On the other hand, Golden State is still the 2nd best team in the West right now but like the Rockets, they aren’t where they are supposed to be. The Warriors have a record of 25-13 as of Wednesday and although that’s still very good, that’s not Golden State standards. Last season, the Dubs didn’t lose their game until February 6th. The year before last, they lost their 13th game on March 10. Obviously, this team isn’t playing as good as it should and given their inconsistencies, I think the Rockets can take advantage and make this a dog fight. However, I think because Golden State is at home and the Rockets are without CP3 and playing with a struggling Eric Gordon, the Dubs are going to win a close game decided by five or less points. Give me the home team here. We’re picking the Golden State Warriors to beat the Houston Rockets on 1/3/19.
Houston is 18-17-1 ATS on the season and the Rockets are 7-11 ATS on the road this season. Golden State is 16-22 ATS in 38 games played this season and the Dubs are only 8-12 ATS at home so far this season. Head to head, the Rockets are 3-2 ATS in their last five meetings.
The Rockets have been on fire in their last 10 games and have stepped up against fancied teams like the Celtics, Thunder, Lakers, Blazers and Spurs. Houston is 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 100 points in their previous game, 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an SU win and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record of at least .600. The Warriors meanwhile are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. I think the Warriors will win but not by much. I’ll take the plus points and the road team here. Prediction: Rockets +8.5
The over is 19-16-1 in the Rockets’ 36 games played this season. The total has gone under in 10 out of the Rockets’ 18 road games played. The over and under are 19-19 in Golden State’s season. The under is 12-8 in Golden State’s 20 home games played so far this season.
We don’t have to go into the stats here, really. On one hand, we have Stephen Curry who’s been on fire since his return from injury and coming off a 34 point night against the Suns. On the other side, James Harden has been on a mean scoring streak lately. The Dubs have a stopper in Klay Thompson but with the way Harden is playing right now, I’m not sure if Thompson would be enough to even limit him. This one has fireworks written all over it. Prediction: Over 225.5
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