The biggest UFC fight of the year is happening on October 6, 2018 when Irish superstar and double champion Conor McGregor makes his long awaited UFC return against UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229.
From a business standpoint, the UFC expects this to be one of the richest fights in history if not the richest as UFC President Dana White is predicting over 2M PPV buys for this event. From the standpoint of the sport, this is also a big fight because it will determine who the best lightweight fighter on the planet today is. Likewise, this bout has huge implications in the betting game as tons of money can be won in betting on this fight.
The odds for the fight have been released and as we know, Khabib Nurmagomedov opened as a -160 favorite while McGregor came back at +120. As of 9/14/18, the Dagestani Combat Sambo world champion is still the favorite at +161 at Betonline.ag while the Irishman is still the dog at +141 at the same sportsbook.
The easiest way to be on McGregor vs Khabib is to pick the winner and the odds are stated above. So right now, if you want to bet on Khabib, you will have to pay a premium and if you’re bet is McGregor, you’ll get plus money. If you look at the lines though, they are pretty close as in a pick ‘em fight. This is because this is as good as it gets.
McGregor vs Khabib is a stylistic battle between a striker and a grappler. With each having the advantage at one avenue of the fight, it’s hard to determine a clear winner. McGregor fans will say that if Conor connects with his left hand, Khabib is a goner. Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov’s supporters say that if the Eagle can take the Notorious to the ground, it’s game over for the Irishman. That’s easier said than done because in between McGregor’s left hand and Khabib’s wrestling are two fighters who are both mentally strong and who have very high fight IQ.
So unless you’re a die hard fan of either, picking on the straight up winner may not be the best bet for you. The beauty of sports betting is that it allows you to make different bets for a single fight or game if you talk about other sports. In this case, Sportsbetting.ag currently also has an OVER/UNDER betting for McGregor vs Khabib:
This bet means that the predicted end of the fight has been set at before or after 2.5 rounds. If you look at their fight records, McGregor and Khabib have fought under 2.5 rounds (number of rounds per fight notwithstanding) combined 11 out of 20 fights so you might want to take the Under 2.5 here. Personally, I think the OVER/UNDER in MMA is more difficult to bet on than the OVER/UNDER in other sports because it is based on fight length or time. But if you ask me here, I’m taking the Under 2.5 based on the fighters’ history. But then again, there are still other bets to make for this fight.
Aside from these two current bets, sportsbooks also offer prop bets on MMA Fights. So far, it’s 5dimes.eu that has already opened its prop bets for McGregor vs Khabib. Let’s talk about some of them. These lines are as of 9/14/18:
We already saw the latest odds for the fight and as we said earlier, it’s really very close because it’s hard to determine who has the advantage here. If you agree with that and think that picking a winner isn’t easy but you would still want to enjoy the fight by making a bet, the the first prop bet is for you:
The McGregor vs Khabib fight is scheduled for 5 rounds because it is both a title fight and a main event bout. In his 24 fight MMA career, Conor McGregor has gone the distance only two times. At UFC Fight Night 26 in 2011, he won a unanimous decision over current UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway. McGregor also won a majority decision over Nate Diaz at UFC 202 during their rematch. The Diaz rematch the only fight where McGregor has ever seen a Round 5 in his entire career.
As for Nurmagomedov, Khabib has gone the distance a total of 10 times in his MMA career and has won all of them. However, like McGregor, he’s only gone 5 rounds in one fight and that was his most recent bout against Al Iaquinta at UFC 223.
Looking at numbers, both fighters have combined for 50 bouts and only 12 have gone the distance with only two of the twelve as five round bouts. When you talk about going the distance, only 24% of their fights have gone the full route. When you talk about five rounders, only 4% have they gone five rounds combined.
So will this go five rounds? You can’t discount that possibility. Sometimes a fight of the highest magnitude doesn’t live up to its hype and ends up a dud. Remember Ngnannou vs Lewis recently? Everyone was talking of a slugfest and a knockout but in the end, the two combined to land fewer than 50 total strikes in that bout.
But in this case, given what is at stake-their legacies, pride and all, you bet each is going all out for the stoppage. My Prediction here? Not Going The Distance -450.
However, do you really want to risk $450 to win $100? Since we agree that the fight isn’t going the distance, let’s look at the odds for each fighter winning via their respective specializations
Or
Now these lines look much better with the plus money if you pick either fighter to win by stoppage. The question though is who? We said earlier that this is probably going down as a pick’em fight. Let’s take a look at the numbers though.
18 of McGregor’s 21 win have been by knockout/TKO. That’s a stunning 85.7% finishing rate right there. On the other hand, Nurmagomedov has 8 wins by submission so that’s 8 out of 26 or 30.7%. Now that rate isn’t as high as McGregor’s knockout numbers but we know what happened the last time McGregor got caught on the canvass against an elite submission artist. He tapped out rather quickly against Nate Diaz. And don’t forget that all of McGregor’s three losses have come via submission so we know the ground game is his kryptonite.
But for Khabib to submit Conor, he’s got to put the Irishman on his back first. Now according to Fightmetric, McGregor’s takedown defense is 73%. That’s good but not great. If Khabib was 6-15 in his takedown attempts against Iaquinta who has a 77% takedown defense, he’s going to get the Irishman down somehow in this fight. The question is if McGregor has done enough to improve his submission defense.
However, because every round starts on the feet, McGregor will always have the chance to land that vaunted left hand shot of his. Nobody can take that left hand, as he always says. And I don’t think Khabib can too. The key here is Conor’s four inch reach advantage because that’s going to keep the Eagle second guessing about going for the takedown. He isn’t getting close to McGregor without being peppered by punches. And if McGregor lands that left, it’s definitely going to be good night. My Prediction? Conor McGregor By KO/TKO +180.
As fight night nears, expect more prop bets to come up at most sports betting sites like Sportbetting.ag, Betonline.ag, Bovada and GTBets. These prop bets will be more specific like picking the round when the fight will end or which round will which fighter finish the fight in. So if you want more exciting bets on this mega fight, keep yourself updated by frequently visiting those sites for the latest.
For now though, there is a point I’d like to make. McGregor opened at +120 and as of 9/14/18 he is a +141 at Betonline.ag. But if you think you’ll get more value with McGregor if you wait longer, think again.Conor McGregor has legions of follower and in fact, he has an entire nation supporting him in every fight he takes. In terms of betting money, that cult following has an effect. When the Irish betting money comes in, The Notorious One will become more pricey.
In every McGregor bout starting from his 2013 bout with Max Holloway, McGregor has always closed at a more expensive price than the opening odds. That said, if you want to bet on Conor McGregor, the time to bet is now. Remember that even when he fought Floyd Mayweather Jr in a boxing match, he opened at +950 and closed at +500 because of the avalanche of bets for him. So think about it and act fast.
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