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Naoya Inoue vs Nonito Donaire Boxing Betting Odds and Prediction

The final of the 2019 World Boxing Super Series Bantamweight Tournament will take place on November 7, 2019, at the Saitama Super Arena in Japan with hometown hero Naoya Inoue taking on Nonito Donaire Jr. of the Philippines in a twelve-round championship bout.

Not only will the winner of this fight unify the IBF, WBA, and Ring bantamweight titles, he will also be the recipient of the Ali Trophy which is given to the winner of this single-elimination bantamweight tournament featuring the world’s Top 8 118-pound fighters. Inoue knocked out Juan Carlos Payano and Emmanuel Rodriguez to get here while Donaire stopped Ryan Burnett and Stephon Young to reach the final.

Remember to check our trusted boxing betting sites to get the best odds for this event.

Naoya “Monster” Inoue

Naoya Inoue is the current IBF and Ring bantamweight champion. The Kanagawa, Japan native is a three-weight division champion as he also held world titles at junior bantamweight and light flyweight. Known as the Monster for his punching power, he is ranked 4th by the Ring and ESPN in the Pound for Pound list.

The 26-year old Inoue is an orthodox fighter who stands at 5-4 tall with a reach of 67 inches. The Monster has an undefeated record of 18-0 with 16 knockouts. He hasn’t also gone past round six since 2016 when he stooped Petchbarngborn Kokietgym in 10 rounds. His last eight bouts have ended in a knockout.

Naoya Inoue’s current odds aren’t surprising because the Japanese Monster has been a heavy boxing betting favorite in all of his previous fights. Inoue has never closed below -588, the odds at which he was pegged during his May 2018 bout against Jamie McDonnell.

  • Moneyline Odds: Inoue -1115, Donaire +540
  • Odds from 888Sport as of 11/04/19

Nonito “Filipino Flash” Donaire

Nonito Donaire is the current WBA (Super) bantamweight champion since 2018. The Filipino Flash is a four-division world champion, having held world titles at flyweight, bantamweight, super bantamweight, and featherweight. He is a two-time winner of the Ring Knockout of the Year award ( 2007 and 2011 ) and he was the BWAA Boxer of the Year in 2012.

The 36-year old Filipino American has a record of 40-5 with 26 knockouts. Donaire stands 5-6 tall and has a reach of 68 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. Donaire is coming off a 6th round TKO win over Stephon Young in the semifinals of the WBSS bantamweight tournament.

Donaire has been the underdog in two out of his last three bouts. He lost to Carl Frampton by decision in one of those while he defeated Ryan Burnett after the latter failed to answer the bell after five rounds due to injury. In his last bout against Stephon Young, the Filipino Flash was a big betting favorite.

Inoue has lightning-fast combinations and very heavy hands. He uses good head movement and doesn’t mind taking a little damage for as long as he can land his big punches. He likes to work the body early and when his opponents begin to drop their hands to protect their midsection, he finishes them with big punches to the head. However, the 26-year old Japanese is susceptible to counters because he tends to forget bringing his trail hand back to his chin. This could lead to an opportunity for Donaire who is like a surgeon when he dissects his opponents.

Donaire is a very good technical fighter who is a very intelligent boxer. He is a terrific counter puncher who uses his laser jab to set up his powerful right hand. He also has a strong left hook and is a high-volume fighter who likes to pressure his opponents by forcing them to fight backward. But Donaire doesn’t use feints nor does he utilize enough head movement while walking down his opponents. Most of the time, that hasn’t been a problem because he has been the first to land the big shots. However, against a much quicker opponent in Inoue, that might be a problem for Donaire.

If Donaire uses his reach advantage and fights from a distance, he will be able to give Inoue plenty of trouble. But knowing Donaire, he is too much of an action fighter not to get involved in fierce exchanges. The Filipino Flash has been knocked out only once in his career and that was by Nicholas Walters. However, I don’t think he’s faced someone as fast and vicious as Inoue. I think Donaire will have his moments and I won’t be surprised if he hurts Inoue. But I think that wear and tear will be a factor here. Inoue is the fresher fighter. He is younger and has faster hands plus quicker feet. I don’t think this will be a walk in the park but I’m picking the Japanese to pick up a stoppage win here.

Prediction: Naoya Inoue

Other Bets to Make

With Inoue such a heavy boxing betting favorite in this fight, you might want to take a look at the other bets for this fight which have a better betting value. Check out these two bets from 888Sport as of 11/4/19:

Fight to Go the Distance

  • Yes +525
  • No -1000

It’s unlikely that this fight is going the distance. Inoue is known as the Monster for nothing. The 26-year old Japanese has 16 knockouts in 18 wins or an 89% knockout ratio. On the other hand, Donaire is no pillow-fisted fighter. The Filipino Flash has 24 knockouts in 40 fights or a 58% knockout ratio. I don’t see Inoue winning on points here because while Donaire is a highly technical fighter, he isn’t a fighter who shies away from a firefight. I think both fighters are going for the KO here. To me, this is the safest bet to make for this fight because this one isn’t going the distance.

Prediction: No (-1000)

Method of Victory

  • Inoue via KO, TKO, DQ -560
  • Inoue via Points +650
  • Draw +3300
  • Donaire by KO, TKO, DQ +900
  • Donaire via Points +1800

Nonito Donaire is a +900 to win this fight by stoppage and that’s tempting because as I said above, these two fighters are heavy-handed and they always engage in action-packed fights. Six out of Donaire’s last nine wins have come via stoppage so despite being already 36 years old, the Filipino-American can still bang. However, I think Donaire is already past his prime and Inoue is on his way to the top. I’m going for Inoue by knockout here. This is the best bet you can make if you are picking Inoue to win this fight.

Prediction: Inoue via KO, TKO, DQ

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