A new set of odds have been released for who will be in the White House after the 2020 United States presidential election, and it’s still business as usual for President Donald J. Trump.
Two months ago at the mark where we were just a year and a half away from the election, Trump was sitting at +175, but today, he’s managed to shoot up with even more favorable odds at +110.
And not only is Trump shooting up in the numbers, but his Democratic competition has actually been on the decline in the odds released by US betting sites. The only one keeping pace with the president at the moment is Joe Biden at +450, and even that is 340 points behind Trump. As of right now, the president’s ‘Keep America Great’ re-election campaign is going great, and honestly, I see Trump as being untouchable at the moment. But this is politics, and with a lot of time to go until we vote next November, a lot of things can change from here until now.
Still, you can’t help but to marvel at the Republican president. Despite criticism about his fiery tweets and constant attacks from the mainstream media, Trump continues to keep his base loyal to him, particularly with GOP voters who Trump has an approval rating over 90% with. Love him or hate him, you have to admire the operation of Trump’s presidency and re-election campaign, and the loyalty that comes with it.
Coming in the second position to win the presidency with his +450 odds is Joe Biden, the highest spot that Biden has been in so far with all of the odds sets. Before the former vice president declared his candidacy, the position was held and shared by Bernie Sanders, Beto O’Rourke and Kamala Harris.
With a 19 point lead right now in the Democratic primaries over second place Sanders, Biden will certainly be a tough candidate for any Democrat to beat in order to take on Trump, especially with “Uncle Joe” having the Obama coalition on his side. We’re still a long way until we find out who the nominee will be for the Democratic Party, but right now, Biden is sitting pretty and with a flashy brand name at that.
Before Biden declared, somebody who was making waves with Democrats and the press was Beto O’Rourke. Ever since that time, however, O’Rourke’s campaign has crumbled and he’s been dropping in the polls. His early fundraising success would lead him to great odds at +600, but now he’s currently sitting at +3000. That should tell you right there how bad things have gotten for O’Rourke.
Someone who has consistently stayed in the top five of the odds has been California’s Kamala Harris, and it’s been mainly due to her wave of Hollywood support. Celebrities such as Ellen DeGeneres have pushed for Harris to become the first female president of the United States.
Things started out well for Harris, but her media exposure has declined a little bit as the Democratic field continues to grow. If that continues, it could become a problem for her campaign as charisma starts to become a factor among candidates — she won’t have it to compete with the energy of a Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, and she doesn’t have the brand name of a Joe Biden to be able survive a wave like that. She’s only moved from +1100 to +1200 in the odds, but look for a possible big drop off with her as time goes along.
RESUME:
*There are many more awards than listed that Trump has won.
Currently visiting the United Kingdom and getting showered in gifts by the queen, and fresh out of hitting China’s economy hard with tariffs, President Donald J. Trump continues to take victory lap after victory lap on to the 2020 election. And oh yeah, that’s also going well for him. Trump currently sits in the top spot in the odds place at +110, 340 points over second place Joe Biden’s +450. After data from China suggested that Trump’s tariffs have been working, he will now try his luck with Mexico to take care of the crisis at the border with illegal immigration. With Mexico being no where as competitive as the Chinese, expect the president to take another victory lap in this scenario. As a result, Trump’s base will grow even more loyal to him, if that’s even possible, as immigration is a huge deal with his supporters. Don’t be surprised to see his odds shoot up even more in the next set, the president just can’t take a loss right now.
Joe Biden was already sitting pretty in the odds in second place, and he was already the top-runner in the Democratic primaries with a 19 point lead, but Joe Biden made a great strategic campaign move over the weekend to separate him even further from the crowded Democratic field. Pollster Frank Luntz from FOX News agrees with me. Over the weekend, a San Francisco, California Democratic convention was held and every candidate in the party running for president made a speaking appearance. Well, everyone except for Joe Biden. Biden would skip out on the convention and instead speak at Human Rights Campaign’s Pride Month Gala in Ohio. This would accomplish two things for Biden: 1. He would separate himself from the field even more and make himself seem “bigger” than the other candidates, which he is. And 2. He would get some early campaign points in the battleground state of Ohio. Not a bad move strategically for crazy Uncle Joe. But not all was lost in San Francisco, his team would meet with fundraisers in the city to scrape up some cash while the convention was in town. In other words, I don’t see anybody beating Biden right now with this operation, but we still have a long ways to go.
Bernie Sanders may be second place in the Democratic field, but he’s got some hurdles to get over. Not only does the self-proclaimed “Democratic Socialist” not have the same magic as he did back in 2016 due to several facets of his past and current wealth, but it was also recently exposed that Bernie is an outright Marxist — he campaigned for the Socialist Workers Party in the Reagan era in both 1980 and 1984. If that wasn’t enough, it was also revealed that he was investigated by the FBI for his ties to Marxism. And here’s another issue that Bernie will have to address: Dwindling numbers. A lot of the supporters that he lost from his previous magical run and others who just aren’t “Feeling the Bern” now are gravitating towards Elizabeth Warren, someone who is calling for policies that are similar to Sanders. Not only will Bernie have to worry about chasing down Biden, but he’ll have to worry about Warren as well, someone whose stock is rising.
Hell, things are getting so bad for Sanders that his base in California, one of the most left-leaning states in the country, is split on him. And it just gets worse for Bernie: He continues to be called out for communism, he was introduced at a fundraiser by a Southern secessionist and continuing the radical calls for President Trump’s impeachment. When it rains, it pours, But here’s the good news that I see for Sanders: Despite the rising stock of Elizabeth Warren and the celebrity support of Kamala Harris, I don’t see them with the voter energy nor the funding to be able to top Bernie in the primaries. As a matter of fact, I see another second-place finish for him, and behind yet another establishment piece in Joe Biden.
There’s a reason why Kamala Harris continues to stay in the top five in the odds, well, multiple reasons.
And not just that, but she’s got media outlets like The Washington Post completely supporting her record. And it gets even better for Harris: Last Thursday, she would announce that she received the endorsements of 33 State assembly members. But her campaign, as most do, is coming along with some controversy: Despite rejecting federal lobbyist money, it was revealed that Harris has been receiving lobbyist money after all, receiving tens of thousands from state and local tech lobbyists. No surprise in politics, right? I don’t see this being a campaign killer, but Harris obviously still has a lot of ground to make up. She’s been running a good campaign so far, her biggest need right now is exposure in the press. If she can get that, she may be able to shoot up in the odds, but I wouldn’t expect a massive increase. At least not yet.
Pete Buttigieg has been making the rounds, and has been doing an excellent job of making voters and journalists know his name. His latest stop was at an MSNBC Town Hall, and might I say, it went quite well. But there’s an issue for Buttigieg, and I noticed it at this town hall, and that’s how divisive he can be. Buttigieg says that President Trump is divisive, but I find that Mayor Pete takes the cake between the two. At least Trump has tried to work with Democrats and give them opportunities to discuss business. For Buttigieg, he would go on to pretty much say that he doesn’t respect one single living Republican — that’s half the country if you didn’t know. Good luck winning in a general election with that radical mindset.
Oh, and speaking of radical, Buttigieg also wants to impeach the president, which is sure to backfire on Democrats if this does take place. And he gets even worse with his plan to overhaul the Supreme Court, which is dangerous to our judicial system. But Buttigieg does have one thing to his advantage: Campaign financing, particularly from the LGBTQ community. He would even sell out a gay bar where he would speak at for $25-per-person. With that being said, however, he has 0% of the African-American vote. If Buttigieg can pick up the pace with identity politics and take advantage of his current base, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana could continue to make a wave.
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