Yeah, seeing blue-blood programs like Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan State and Kansas clash for national supremacy is exciting. So is watching future NBA stars emerge (I still remember an unheralded Steph Curry making his mark with Davidson in the NCAA Tournament.)
But let’s be honest here. The big reason we love March Madness is the upsets. I don’t think there’s anything more exciting — or inspirational — than seeing a team nobody expects to win take a heavy favorite down to the wire, or even pull off a comfortable upset.
I’m not sure we’re going to see anything like UMBC’s 20-point out of Virginia last year (the first time a #16 ever beat a #1 in NCAA Tournament history), but I do see quite a few spots where the underdogs have a chance to bite when the Big Dance gets underway this week. Here’s a look at five March Madness upsets to watch for in the opening rounds of the 2019 NCAA Tournament.
(All odds courtesy of BetOnline as of 9:30 p.m. on Tuesday, March 19, 2019.)
Nevada’s enjoyed a banner season, going 29-4 overall and finishing atop the Mountain West Conference standings. Florida’s struggled through a 19-15 campaign, going just 9-9 in conference play and needing a strong showing in the SEC tournament just to earn an invite to the Big Dance. And yet the Gators are just 2-point underdogs here.
That should tell you a lot. While the #20 Wolf Pack came within a basket of making the Elite Eight last year, oddsmakers seem skeptical that they’re capable of making a similar run this spring. Nevada certainly isn’t coming into the Tournament with a lot of momentum, going out in the semifinals of the Mountain West Tournament with a 65-56 loss to San Diego State — the second time in as many days that the Wolf Pack trailed by double digits. I’m not sure Nevada just simply flicks the ‘on switch’ when the bright lights of the NCAA Tournament come on on Thursday.
Florida, on the other hand, gained confidence in its conference championship tournament, beating Arkansas and LSU before falling by 3 points to Auburn in the semis. The Gators can hang around in this game with their slow defensive style (Florida’s 63.6 points against per game was the 21st best mark in the country), and if it’s close late, the pressure always mounts on the favorite. This isn’t the best team Mike White has led out of Gainesville, but the Gators are certainly capable of at least one surprise in this tournament.
If you think Florida has momentum coming into the tournament, just wait till you see what Murray State is bringing to the table. The Racers have raced (sorry) into March Madness on a 10-game winning streak, using that late surge to tie Belmont for top spot in the Ohio Valley Conference standings and then beat Belmont by 12 points in the OVC tournament final. They’ve got the stud offensive player in Ja Morant (24.6 points per game and 10 assists) that underdogs need to make noise in the NCAA Tournament, and Morant is coming off a 36-point explosion against Belmont in the conference tournament.
While Murray State appears to be peaking at the right time, the Golden Eagles aren’t exactly soaring. They’ve lost five of their last six games (including four defeats as favorites) and survived just one round in the Big East tournament before going out to Seton Hall. Marquette’s too reliant on the three-point shot (39.3% from behind the arc, 10th in the nation) to be trusted in a one-game elimination, especially considering that shutting down the three-pointer is the thing Murray State’s defense does best (28.2% allowed, fourth-best in the NCAA).
If you paid any attention to the WCC tournament, you know what Saint Mary’s is capable of. The Gaels didn’t just beat Gonzaga in their conference championship game, they mopped the floor with the Bulldogs. Saint Mary’s 60-47 win over the Zags came as 14-point underdogs, meaning they covered the spread by a whopping 27 points!
You’d think a win like that may suck all the point spread value out of a team like Saint Mary’s, and it’s true that the Gaels might normally have been catching more points in a game against the Wildcats. But I think there’s still quite a bit of value in the 5 you can get with Saint Mary’s right now, and the Gaels are even worth a shot at the +170 moneyline available at BetOnline at the time of writing. (By the way, that +170 had come down from an opener of +198, suggesting that a few sharp bettors were also thinking along the same lines in early betting action.)
Saint Mary’s plays the tough type of defense that keeps underdogs alive in the NCAA Tournament, and they also don’t allow many chances to opposing teams (fifth-fewest rebounds allowed in the nation at 27.1 per game.) The Gaels are hitting their stride at the right time, winning seven of their last eight. I also think they’re hungrier, fighting for respect out of the WCC while Villanova may be complacent after winning the title in two of the last three seasons. This is not the same Wildcats team as we’re used to seeing from Jay Wright (they don’t rank inside the top 60 in any major offensive or defensive category), and we shouldn’t be surprised to see them go home early against a scrappy, battle-tested foe.
A few weeks ago, I’m not even sure we’d consider a Hawkeyes win over the Bearcats as an upset. Before losing five of its last six games, Iowa was 21-6 and was ranked 22nd in the nation — one spot ahead of Cincy in the AP poll. But Iowa’s recent struggles, coupled with the Bearcats’ impressive win over Houston in last weekend’s American Athletic Conference Tournament final, makes the Hawkeyes a team that not many are eager to back in the opening round of March Madness.
Why am I suggesting we buck the trends and back Iowa as one of the March Madness upsets to watch for? The big reason is how constipated this Cincinnati offense can look at times — in fact, how it looked through most of the year. The Bearcats rarely blow anyone off the court, averaging just 71.7 points per game (199th in the country) and shooting a mediocre 43.2% from the field on the year. Cincy’s also vulnerable to the 3-point shot (228th in the nation, giving up 35.1% from outside the arc), something that a decent three-point shooting Iowa team (36.1%) can take advantage of.
I also think Iowa’s late-season struggles were a bit overblown. The Hawkeyes were underdogs in all but one of those losses, meaning they were expected to lose those games. If Iowa was melting down as double-digit chalk, I wouldn’t feel quite the same about backing them now. But the recent slump might just make the Hawkeyes hungrier to redeem themselves, while Cincinnati may feel just a bit too good about itself following the win over Houston. At +145 on the moneyline, I’m willing to take a shot.
I know, betting against the Badgers in March has been scientifically proven to be bad for your health. In its last four March Madness appearances, all Wisconsin has done is made the Sweet Sixteen (twice), the Final Four and the national final (losing in 2015). Go all the way back to 2002, and the Badgers have won at least one game in all but two of their last 13 trips to the Big Dance.
But let’s not forget that this Wisky program may be on its way down under coach Greg Gard, who made the Sweet Sixteen in his first season as the head man (using Bo Ryan’s recruits) before failing to get an invite to March Madness last spring. Wisconsin was a respectable 14-6 in the Big Ten, but the Badgers routinely struggled to beat mediocre opponents like Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska, Penn State and Ohio State (since early February, Wisconsin’s biggest win over those opponents was by just 6 points, and that victory came in OT.) The Badgers are 271st in the nation in points per game on offense, struggle from the free throw line (64.9%, 331st in the nation) and are barely average on the glass.
While Wisconsin can still play defense with the best of them, Oregon’s every bit as good as the Badgers on the defensive end (17th in points allowed, 22nd in field goal percentage, 11th in three-point percentage.) The Ducks ride an eight-game winning streak into the tournament, all of those victories by eight points or more except for an OT win over Arizona State last weekend. But the most telling stat of all may be how oddsmakers opened this game as a pick ‘em despite the disparity in both seedings and reputations of these programs. I’d have taken the Ducks at the pick ‘em price, but getting +2 on the spread and +111 on the moneyline makes this an absolute bargain in my opinion.
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