The Dallas Mavericks continue their California trip by heading to Oakland to take on the Golden State Warriors.
Dallas lost in Sacramento on Monday night after picking up back-to-back wins over the L.A. Lakers last week. The Mavs are trying to chase the Lakers for 5th place in the Western Conference team standings and are just 2.5 games back after Monday’s games. The Warriors are tucked in 10th place but are just 2.5 games behind the Mavs and outright entry to the playoffs.
The Dallas Mavericks saw their three-game winning streak end in Sacramento after a 113-106 loss to the Kings. With the loss, Dallas moved back to 2.5 games behind the idle Los Angeles Lakers at the end of Monday’s games. More concerning for Mark Cuban’s crew is the fact that they are just one game ahead of the 7th seeded Portland Trail Blazers and a possible appearance in the play-in tournament.
Luka Doncic scored 24 points against the Kings but was just 8-20 from the floor and 4-12 from deep. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke provided support with 19 points each but the Mavs failed to take advantage of the absence of Kings’ top player De’Aaron Fox. They shot just 12-42 from the three-point area and missed six of 14 free throws which could’ve made the game closer.
Dallas ranks 19th in the league in scoring at 111.5 points per game this season. The Mavs have the NBA’s 13th best scoring defense at 111.1 points per game allowed. They are also just 19th in rebounding at 43.6 boards grabbed per contest and are 26th in passing at 22.5 assists per game.
The Golden State Warriors are riding Steph Curry’s red hot shooting month. Curry has made 85 three-pointers this month, a new NBA record, and the Warriors have won seven out of their last nine games played to solidify their hold of 10th place. At the same time, Golden State is just three games behind the Mavericks for outright entry to the postseason and a win here will further close that gap.
In their last game, the Warriors knocked off the Sacramento Kings 117-113 behind another offensive explosion from Curry. The two-time MVP scored 37 points and is averaging 38.2 points per game this month. Draymond Green had another brilliant all-around effort with 8 points, 14 rebounds, and 13 assists while Kelly Oubre Jr. added 19 points off the Golden State bench.
Golden State ranks 15th in the league in scoring at 113.1 points per game this season. They are 21st overall in scoring defense at 113.0 points per game allowed and 23rd in rebounding at 42.9 boards grabbed per contest. The Dubs lead the league in passing at 27.4 assists per game.
Dallas is 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played. The Mavs are 17-12 SU in their 29 road games played this season. Golden State is 7-2 SU in their last nine games played. The Warriors are 4-1 SU in their last five games played at home. Head to head, Mavs are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Warriors. Dallas has also won their last three road games against Golden State.
It’s a surprise why the Mavericks are favored here because not only are they missing their second-leading scorer in Kristaps Porzingis but they will also be playing back-to-back games here after visiting Sacramento on Monday night. Doncic is expected to bounce back after a poor shooting night but he can only do so much with Porzingis out.
The Warriors meanwhile have the red hot Steph Curry who has hit a record 85 three-pointers this month.
With Curry showing no signs of slowing down, the Warriors are going to be an excellent pick here, especially since they are at home. Draymond Green continues to do the other things, and Golden State’s supporting cast is feeding off their two stars.
Dallas has won 4 out of their last six games but the Warriors have won 7 of nine. Both teams are on a nice roll but the Warriors are playing much better and are also the healthier team between the two. And yes, they are well-rested here.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
Dallas is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games played. The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Western Conference, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven Tuesday games.
Golden State is 6-3 ATS in their last nine games played. The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference, 6-3 ATS in their last nine April games played, 4-0 ATS in their last four games against an opponent with a winning road record, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against an opponent with a winning SU record, and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played at home.
Head to head, the Mavs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games played against the Warriors and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Golden State.
Take the Warriors at +1.5. Golden State is feeding off a red hot Stephen Curry and they are fortifying their position in the play-in tournament. Two out of their last three wins have come against the Sixers and Nuggets, both elite teams. The Mavs beat the Lakers twice last week but we know that they were playing a different L.A. team. Golden State is 19-10 at home this season.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors +2.5
The total has gone under in 12 out of the last 18 games played by the Mavericks. The under is 5-1 in their last six games played on the road, 8-3 in their last 11 Tuesday games, 5-1 in their last six games against the Pacific Division, and 13-3 in their last 16 games against an opponent with a winning home record.
The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by the Warriors. The under is 5-1 in their last six games against the Southwest Division, 4-0 in their last four games when playing on one day rest, 5-1 in their last six games against an opponent with a winning road record, 3-14 in their last 17 Tuesday games.
Dallas has failed to score over 109 points in three out of their last five games played. The Mavs will also be missing 20+ points per game from Kristaps Porzingis who is out with an injury. The Warriors are just 15th in the league in scoring while the Mavs are even worse at 19th. Defensively, Golden State isn’t among the elites in the league but without Porzingis and possibly Josh Richardson, Dallas will have fewer scoring options. Add the fact that they played in Sacramento on Monday night. I’ll take the under.
Prediction: Under 225.5
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