The Milwaukee Bucks make the trip to Memphis on Wednesday to take on the Grizzlies at the FedExForum in a battle between teams trending opposite directions.
The Milwaukee Bucks aren’t just winning games, they are dominating their opposition. Milwaukee has won 12 out of their last 15 games dating back to December 14th and heading to last Sunday’s games, the Bucks were outscoring their opponents by an average of 9.1 points per game, the best differential in the NBA this season. After beating the Atlanta Hawks 133-114 on Sunday, they only added to that league-leading statistic.
The main reason for Milwaukee’s success is Giannis Antetokounmpo who is doing it all for the Bucks. The Greek Freak is averaging 26.7 points, 12.6 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks per game. Khris Middleton is having a fine season too, scoring 17.8 points on top of 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Guards Malcolm Brogdon and Eric Bledsoe have also played big this season, scoring 15.6 and 15.3 points per game, respectively.
The Bucks are the top scoring team in the NBA this season with an average of 117.6 points per game. Milwaukee is also 9th in scoring defense, allowing opponents to score just 108.3 points per game. The Bucks are also the #1 rebounding team in the league at 49.0 rebounds per game while they are 5th in passing at 26.5 assists per game.
The Memphis Grizzlies are free-falling right now. After a strong start, Memphis’ new grit and grind team has faded fast and are now at 19-24 after losing eight of their last nine games played. Heading to Wednesday’s home game against the Bucks, Memphis has dropped back to back road games to the Miami Heat and Houston Rockets.
Mike Conley has been the only consistent force for the Grizzlies. Coming off an injury season, the veteran guard is averaging 20.0 points, 6.3 assists and 1.3 steals per game for Memphis. Marc Gasol is underachieving at 15.4 points and a team high 8.5 rebounds per game. Rookie Jaren Jackson Jr. is putting up 13.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game.
The Grizzlies have the best scoring defense in the league at 102.9 points per game allowed but they are next to last in offense with just 100.9 points per game scored. Memphis is also dead last in rebounding at 39.9 boards per contest and are only 21st in passing with 23.2 assists per game.
Heading to Tuesday’s games, Milwaukee is 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played and the Bucks are 3-1 SU in their last four road games. Memphis is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games played. The Grizzlies are 2-3 SU in their last five home games. Head to head, the Bucks are 4-2 SU in their last six meetings against the Grizzlies.
As we said earlier, these are two teams trending in different directions with Milwaukee being the team that’s going up. The only concern I see for the Bucks here is them playing back to back games. But if you look at the boxscore for that game, no Milwaukee player had more than 26 minutes of playing time in that game. Khris Middleton played 26 minutes, Giannis and Brook Lopez 25 apiece and Eric Bledsoe just 22 minutes. Having said that, except for the plane travel, the Bucks are virtually well-rested and should be ready to compete with the Grizzlies on Wednesday.
Performance-wise, it’s a mismatch. Memphis has the top scoring defense in the league but doesn’t have anything else to show outside that. Meanwhile, the Bucks have been stellar on both ends of the floor and have proved they can with with offense as well as defense. The Bucks have balance and consistency in their scoring. The Grizzlies don’t have both. Memphis has lost five of seven at home while the Bucks have won six out of their last eight road games. Again both, teams are trending opposite directions and I expect it to remain that way. We’re picking the Milwaukee Bucks to beat the Memphis Grizzlies on 1/16/19.
Entering Tuesday’s schedule, the Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played and 3-1 ATS in their last four road games. The Grizzlies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played and 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Head to head, the Grizzlies are 5-3 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing straight up records. Milwaukee is also 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning straight up record. The Grizzlies are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing on one day rest and 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games played. Memphis doesn’t just have enough firepower to keep up with the Bucks. Prediction: Bucks -6.5
The under is 6-4 in the last 10 games played by both the Bucks and Grizzlies. The total has gone under in three out the last four road games played by the Bucks and the total has gone under in three out of the last five home games for the Grizzlies. Head to head, the over is 6-4 in the last 10 meetings between these teams.
The under is 4-1 in the Grizzlies’ last five games overall and the under is also 8-2 in the Bucks’ last 10 home games. Milwaukee can score and defend while Memphis can defend but cannot score. The Grizzlies haven’t found any consistent scoring outside Mike Conley. Prediction: Under 209
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