Head coach Bruce Weber’s messaging is working for No. 16 Kansas State (21-6, 11-3 Big 12).
They’ll need Weber’s craftsmanship again tonight in a game plan against ranked in-state rival No. 15 Kansas (20-7, 9-5 Big 12), and it’s not just a rivalry game: Seeding in the upcoming Big 12 Tournament is also up for stakes. And here’s another kicker for the Wildcats: They’re on the road.
“I didn’t think they had great emotion,” Weber told reporters about his squad before a dominating 85-46 blowout victory over Oklahoma State on Saturday. “I just said, ‘We’ve been through this before.’ We didn’t get the right emotion and mental preparation for some games and let them slip. I said, ‘It woud be a shame if that happened. But we jumped on them and did a great job defensively.”
They’re coming off of an embarrassing 29-point 91-62 loss at Texas Tech on Saturday. It was the worst Big 12 defeat for Kansas under head coach Bill Self. But as Kansas junior forward Dedric Lawson said, it could be a blessing in disguise — meaning that a blowout loss could give KU extra motivation heading into this game against their hated rivals.
“Sometimes a loss can be a blessing in disguise,” Lawson said to the media. “And hopefully this is one.”
Other than facing their rival and clawing for conference tournament seeding, the Jayhawks are also fighting for something else: A 15th straight regular season Big 12 championship.
A sellout is expected between Kansas State-Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, an environment that is sure to bring a lot of craze and intensity. It’s also a building where the Jayhawks have won 18 consecutive games and they’re also undefeated in the 2018-19 campaign. The Wildcats haven’t been victorious in Lawrence since 2006.
That may be why Bill Self doesn’t seem to worried about the game against Kansas State, as well as the blowout loss to the Red Raiders. He did mention that they were “very poor at everything” they did, but didn’t put too much blame on his student-athletes. Instead, he would give kudos to Texas Tech — a team who is also fighting for the regular season Big 12 championship, currently sitting one game behind Kansas State in the No. 2 position.
“Did I sense frustration? Absolutely. But no, no [loss of resiliency]. Not at all.” Self commented to reporters. “We just weren’t very good. They were better. They were great; we were awful.”
In order for the Jayhawks to recover tonight, they’ll need more scoring production from their whole team other than Lawson. Against TTU, he was the only player with double digits with 14 points. Lawson leads the Big 12 in both scoring and rebounding with 19.0 PPG and 10.1 RPG. For the season, he has a total of 16 double-doubles.
For Kansas State, they’ll be trying to pull the season sweep over their in-state rivals tonight, and they’re sitting pretty to do so with the most experienced rotation in the Big 12. The Wildcats have three seniors and two juniors in their starting lineup. KSU’s star is senior guard Barry Brown Jr., who leads the team in scoring with 15.7 PPG, and he also leads the conference in steals with a tally of 2.0 STLPG.
Both Lawson and Brown Jr. are candidates for Big 12 Player of the Year.
“It’s going to be a little bit more of an assignment with the [Kansas] rivalry,” Brown told reporters. “We’re the team on the road and we’ve won a good number of games especially in-conference on the road.”
In Big 12 road games this season, Kansas State is 6-1 — their only loss came at Texas Tech.
Kansas has defeated the Wildcats a record 196 times throughout the history of the rivalry, the most wins in history against a Division I opponent.
“It’s a bucket list game but we don’t really dwell on it or talk about it,” commented Kansas State senior forward Dean Wade. “We just need to stay locked in.”
Tip-off between No. 16 Kansas State University (21-6, 11-3 Big 12) at No. 15 Kansas University (20-7, 9-5 Big 12) is set for 9:00 PM ET, and will be nationally televised on ESPN. The Jayhawks enter as the -4.0 point favorite over the Wildcats.
The senior out of beautiful St. Petersburg, Florida has been a star for the Kansas State Wildcats this season, and that’s evident by his team-leading scoring figure and his effectiveness on the glass and on defense. In points-per-game, Brown Jr. leads the team with his average of 15.7 PPG, and his shooting has been pretty solid at 46.0 FG%. On the rebounding end, Brown Jr. has grabbed down 4.2 RPG — just -0.8 under the five threshold. In the defensive department, Brown Jr. has been a class A thief averaging 2.0 STLPG.
Another senior leader for the Wildcats, Dean Wade has been extremely effective for Kansas State this season averaging a double figure in scoring, and also leads the team in rebounding. In points production, Wade tallies double digits and is just -1.9 points away from the 15-mark averaging 13.1 PPG. His team-leading number on the glass amounts to 6.3 RPG, which is +1.3 over the five threshold. Wade also brings other numbers to the table such as 2.8 APG, 0.8 STLPG, and 0.2 BLKPG.
The transfer-junior out of Memphis has been an absolute force for the Kansas Jayhawks this season, leading the team in both points-per-game and rebounding with a double-double average. In the scoring department, Lawson is just -1.0 away from the elite 20 figure at 19.0 PPG, and his shooting has been incredible as well at 50.3 FG%. His second double comes on the glass where he averages 10.1 RPG. But that’s not all when it comes to Lawson. He’s also a force on the defensive side at 1.1 BLKPG and 1.1 STLPG.
The international student-athlete from Nigeria has been effective as a junior this season for the Jayhawks, particularly in scoring and rebounding — he’s also made solid contributions on the defensive side of the ball. With scoring, Azubuike is -1.6 away from the 15 mark with an average of 13.4 PPG, and his shooting has been amazingly spectacular hitting 70.5 FG% of his shots. With the battle on the boards, Azubuike is +1.8 over the five threshold tallying 6.8 RPG. And check his figure in the block department: 1.6 BLKPG.
When you first glance at the numbers, you see it doesn’t look good for KSU only taking one of the four main line statistical categories (points-per-game, points against, field goal percentage, rebounds-per-game) — but then you notice their drastic margin with their dominant defense. In scoring, the Wildcats take a distant -10 hit with an average of 66.5 PPG, and they also slack at -4 hitting a below average 43.7 FG% of his shots. On the rebounding end, they’re again -4 at 33.8 RPG. But their defense is a whopping +11 at a dominant 59.3 PA.
The Jayhawks are sitting pretty to avoid the sweep against their in-state rivals tonight, and that’s due to taking three of the four main line statistical categories — and they also have homecourt advantage. In points-per-game, they have a distant advantage at +10 averaging a potent 76.4 PPG. In field goal percentage, it’s KU once again with the edge with a solid +4 hitting 47.2 FG% of their shots. On the rebounding end, they have another +4 advantage bringing down 37.1 RPG. But here’s the problem with their defense: A -11 hit at 70.6 PA.
THE BREAKDOWN: The Kansas Jayhawks enter as the -4.5 point favorite over the Kansas State Wildcats, but you know the old saying: “Anything can happen in rivalry games.” Indeed. And also consider this: Kansas State is going for the season sweep tonight. They would get a 74-67 home win over the Jayhawks back on February 5. With all that being said, it’s only appropriate to place Kansas on upset alert tonight.
But it’ll be tough for the Wildcats to accomplish the feat. As previously mentioned, the Jayhawks are an undefeated 18-0 at the Allen Fieldhouse. But KSU has done damage before on the road, they’re a winning 6-4 when they’re a visiting team. As a favorite this season, Kansas is a dominant 19-2, but again, the Wildcats come in with some decent numbers. As an underdog, they’ve pulled three out of five games for wins to have them at a 3-2 record. Kansas State has them against the spread with their 16-11 record, the Jayhawks actually have a losing 12-15 record in this department — definitely note that for tonight. Kansas does have a winning 10-8 ATS Home record, but KSU is solid with a 7-3 ATS Away record. But in the Jayhaws’ defense, it should be noted that they have a few more pluses when numbers are concerned: They hold tight grips in both three-point percentage and from the free throw line.
Needless to say, we have a very balanced matchup in what’s already an in-state rivalry contest. Expect flat-out entertainment in this one, with the atmosphere being bananas at Lawrence. Here’s my verdict though for the victor: I’m not betting against Kansas at home. Not only are the Jayhawks 18-0 in Lawrence this season, but the Wildcats haven’t beaten Kansas at Thomas Fieldhouse since 2006 — that’s 13 years now. With them holding the tight leverage over the numbers and holding the homecourt advantage, you have to ride with KU for the win.
Bet Kansas. With the -4.5 spread, I wouldn’t take it — too risky. Not only is it a rivalry game, but the Wildcats come in with a massively elite defense. They’ll give the Jayhawks problems all night. As a result, we’ll have a close game all the way to the buzzer. KU doesn’t cover. With the O/U at 133.5, go ahead and take the over. I personally have 138, which is +4.5 over the threshold. Both offenses come in with a level of potency, and I understand the Wildcats have an elite defense, but they’ll only slow down the Jayhawks’ 76.4 PPG average so much. When the two schools’ numbers mix together and balance out, you see that both teams hover around the 70-mark. That gets us over the 133.5 mark quite easily.
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