Who likes finding value in sports bets? Chances are, if you landed on this page, you have been scouring the internet looking around for legitimate betting advice and tips. Fortunately for you, this blog is your last stop.
I was researching the latest NBA futures lines and I noticed an opportunity to make some serious money. Whether you follow the NBA closely or not, winning money is something everyone can get excited about. The sportsbooks and online betting sites got pounded last year by all the people with winning tickets on the Golden State Warriors futures bet.
The public won a lot of money thanks to the Warriors winning the Finals last season- casino operators are more prepared this time around.
I want to explain to you where the value is in terms of betting on teams that could win the NBA Finals. The Warriors have as good of a chance as any team to win-there is no doubt about that. The problem is, the way it’s priced, there just isn’t any value in betting on the Warriors to win it all.
I did spot some value with some other teams, and that’s why I wrote this blog post. Read along as I’ll go over the numbers and explain where the openings are. There are three teams that with their current price, stand out to me as teams with a genuine opportunity to hoist the trophy this season.
Remember, I am not saying the Warriors aren’t the favorites to win the NBA Championship. What I am doing is simply telling you the teams given their current odds that may be able to get it done this season.
Let’s start with the team who is almost a given to reach the Finals. The team with the player who has been to 7 consecutive NBA Finals and has no plans of not making this year his 8th straight:
Depending on which online site you are looking at, the Cavaliers are currently sitting around +600 to win the NBA Finals. This is A GREAT PRICE for a team that we can almost pencil in for an appearance in the NBA Finals.
There are a lot of reasons I like this Cavs squad and this particular bet, let me break it down:
First and foremost, to win the NBA Finals, you have to get there. No team in the entire National Basketball Association has proven to be more of a lock to reach the final destination than the team with Lebron James on its roster. The lack of prime competition in the Eastern Conference has cleared the pathway for Lebron and the Cavaliers in each of the last three seasons.
As good of basketball as the Boston Celtics have been playing, I think overcoming Gordon Hayward’s horrific leg injury will be too big of an ask come playoff time. Boston is good enough to win games and perhaps even a series or two in the playoffs without the services of the ultra-talented small forward.
Trying to beat the Cavaliers in a 7-game series without arguably your best player – that’s just not realistic. As much as many of you may grin in dismay, I really don’t feel like the Celtics are a legitimate threat to come out of the Eastern Conference this season.
When I look at the standings in the East, I see a few really talented young teams that are most certainly on the rise. Teams like the Philadelphia 76ers and the Detroit Pistons are getting better and have a chance to be scary-good in the next few years. Beating Cleveland this season? Not so much.
See, the road to the Finals in the Eastern Conference is paved in Cleveland. Despite having to lay around -130, betting on Cleveland to win the East is a fairly reliable bet. I just don’t see any other teams that are ready to take that leap forward and supplant the King. At least not this season.
When Isiah Thomas return from his hip injury sometime in early 2018, the Cavaliers lineup will be bolstered that much more. Having another player with the skills and determination of “IT” will undoubtedly make this team that much more capable.
Not only do I think betting the Cavs to reach the Finals at -130 is a wise and profitable wager- I absolutely love them at +600 to win it all. If you have any desire in betting on Cleveland, I suggest getting active on the online sports betting sites sooner than later.
I imagine the price will only get worse for potential bettors as the season progresses – once it becomes clearer that the Cavs are going to the Finals for a fourth straight year.
Depending on how swiftly you act, betting on the Rockets to win the NBA Finals right now could prove to be a big money-making opportunity. Heading into December, the Rockets are leading the Western Conference at 17-4 and playing superb basketball. The problem is the futures odds on the online betting sites and Vegas sportsbooks aren’t representative of that. While you will find the Rockets around +800 or +900 on many sites, I saw them as high +1300!
Getting a team with the leading scorer and assist man in the NBA at +1300 seems like a bargain to me. Let me tell you why the Rockets aren’t just for show and why they have a real shot at winning it all this year. I’m not going to use “my personal expertise”. I will simply point out the facts and the data that support the claim.
When judging NBA teams, my favorite and what I believe is the most telling stat is the point differential statistic. The difference between how many points a team scores per game and how many points they allow per game. This stat is so telling because it really demonstrates how much better a team is than their competition.
Right now, at +10.8 points, the Houston Rockets lead the NBA in point differential, ahead of the Warriors at +10.2. The third-best point differential in the league is the Toronto Raptors at +7.3 points. This stat tells me that the Rockets and the Warriors are clearly the top two teams in the league. On paper, measuring the two teams comes out pretty evenly.
So when I see the Warriors are -180 to win the Finals and the Rockets are between +800 and +1300, it screams out VALUE to me. Sure, I think the Warriors have a better opportunity to win the Championship this year. But the discrepancy in the price is not justified. Teams out west are gunning for Golden State and Mike D’Antoni has his group clicking on all cylinders. A few things have to line up and go right for the Rockets to be the last team standing, but at +1300, I am willing to take my chances.
Before you start gawking and scratching your head, hear me out. Nobody has been talking about the San Antonio Spurs as a contender this season, and that’s just the way Greg Popovich likes it. The Spurs are actually right where they need to be. At 14-7 and the current 3-seed in the Western Conference, San Antonio is doing everything they can to bide time until their superstar returns.
The reason nobody is talking about San Antonio or taking them seriously is because they have been without Kawhi Leonard the entire campaign. The Spurs are hardly a shell of themselves without Leonard in the lineup. There are a few players in this league that are true- game-changers. I am talking about guys that can affect and change the outcome of a game.
Kawhi Leonard has elevated his game to that upper echelon status. Ask any player or coach in the league about Kawhi and his abilities and they all say the same thing. The dude is a killer on both ends of the court. The fact that the Spurs have remained competitive and are winning games without him doesn’t bode well for the rest of the NBA.
The one saving grace while the Spurs await the return of the former San Diego State University product is the emergence of power forward LaMarcus Aldridge. Last year, Aldridge disappointed himself and Spurs fans by not being aggressive enough when they needed him. If you were wondering if Aldridge got the message, check out his numbers through the first 21 games this season compared to last year.
|Last Season||This Season|
|Points per Game||17.3||23.1|
|Rebounds per Game||7.3||8.2|
|Free Thow Attempts per Game||3.8||5.4|
Being forced to play basketball without Kawhi on the court may end up being a blessing in disguise for LaMarcus and this Spurs squad. The team is plenty talented and experienced enough to win games and position themselves for the playoffs while Leonard recovers from his quad injury. Aldridge getting back to his All-Star caliber form is exactly what General Manager R.C. Buford wanted and needed to see for this team to be a threat once the playoffs roll around.
I know the Warriors and the Rockets are both loaded with firepower all-around. But I can promise Steve Kerr and Mike D’Antoni won’t be excited about a potential series with a healthy San Antonio team and a rested Kawhi Leonard.
So that brings me to the point of the blog, futures betting for this season’s NBA Finals. The Spurs are lurking at +1800 on most sites. Like a sitting duck, the Spurs are going unnoticed and not a lot of action is being wagered on them. You need to realize how the Spurs may look in April and May, when the season is winding down. Judging the Spurs in November without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard playing would be a huge mistake. The current odds are reflecting the current team that is out on the floor.
People seem to forget it was the Spurs leading the Warriors by 23 points on the road in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals last season before Leonard was injured and forced to miss the remainder of the series. I have been watching the NBA too long to start counting out a Greg Popovich squad this early in the season. I know better, and you should too. At +1800, taking a flyer on a team that I know is going to be getting better as the season progresses. Now that’s something I am interested in.
This blog post was written in order to give sports bettors a “different look”. The percentage of NBA futures bets being wagered on the Golden State Warriors has been out of control, and rightfully so. The key to being able to actually make money and show a profit is by getting good value with your picks.
I agree, the Warriors have a great chance at repeating as NBA Champs this season. However, at their current ridiculous offering of -180 to win it all, I can’t get behind putting my hard-earned money on them. The price is just too high, there is simply no value there. I’d have to risk $1,800 just for the chances at profiting $1,000.
The other three teams I mentioned have legitimate chances of winning the Finals this year. The online betting sites and sportsbooks in Vegas are treating them as if their chances are much slimmer than they are in reality.
I mean just think. If an unfortunate injury were to occur involving Kevin Durant or Steph Curry, the Warriors hopes of winning a Title would be derailed. Injuries in the game of basketball aren’t that uncommon. While I would never wish or hope someone gets hurt, these are the things I have to take into account when considering laying an astronomical price such as -180 to win the whole thing.
The prices currently being offered for the Cavs, the Rockets, and the Spurs to win the NBA Championship are just too low. The ability to make a nice chunk of change is a lot more realistic by betting one of those three teams as opposed to betting on the Warriors.
Look, the general public has been wagering on the Warriors to win it all, and the lines clearly show that. I don’t bet with the general public, and neither should you.
If you are looking to bet $300 on an NBA futures bet, don’t run to your favorite online sports betting site and dump it all on Golden State. Consider taking a flyer and betting $100 each on the Cavaliers, Rockets, and Spurs. I have a funny feeling if you do you will be pleasantly surprised come June.
Enjoy the NBA season and good luck betting!