For decades, most of the focus in NBA betting has been on traditional methods such as the point spread, Over/Under and moneyline.
With all of that attention on those markets, however, those lines can be complicated to beat on a consistent basis. Oddsmakers spend the majority of their attention on those odds, and if they hang a lousy number, the professional “sharps” will quickly pounce on them until the bookies move them to an appropriate price.
Unless you’re confident in your ability to beat these tough lines, a more profitable way to bet on the NBA could be to focus on the ever-growing number of prop bets that are available. The low limits that accompany a lot of these prop offerings keep the sharp players from getting too involved, allowing the rest of us to take advantage of some pretty soft numbers that the bookmakers aren’t spending a lot of time on.
Let’s take a look at five different types of NBA prop bets in which you can consistently and easily make money by merely applying an intelligent and logical approach.
For years, the NBA has marketed itself as the place “where amazing happens.” However, a more accurate slogan might be “where the predictable happens.”
Even though the salary cap is supposed to ensure parity from year to year, no other major professional sport in North America sees the same players and franchises dominate every single postseason. Kevin Durant’s decision to join the Golden State Warriors has led to the Dubs being a virtual lock to win the West in the last few years, while LeBron James was looking to make his eighth straight NBA Finals appearance in 2018.
Those are just the most recent examples. The Los Angeles Lakers won the West 7 times in an 11-year span from 2000-2010, and Michael Jordan led the Bulls to 6 straight NBA titles in the 1990s (a streak that was only interrupted by Jordan’s 2-year retirement from the sport when he attempted to be a baseball player instead.)
No other team sport can be dominated by a single player like basketball, where only five guys are on the court at a time and superstars can play 80-90% of the game. The best players on the best teams consistently take home the hardware, arguably making NBA championship and conference futures the easiest props to win. You’ll often have to lay a lot of juice to take those favorites, but the predictability of the league makes it worthwhile.
You may not think that the NBA MVP award is that predictable, considering that it seems to be passed around more than a church collection plate. Even though LeBron James has been the consensus #1 player in the Association virtually his entire career and led teams to 6 appearances in the NBA Finals, nine different players other than James have taken home the hardware since The King entered the league in 2003.
However, prop betting on the NBA MVP award is a lot easier to win than you may think because there are several particular traits that voters have shown a tendency to reward.
For example, over the last 31 seasons, the MVP trophy has been awarded to a player whose team finished the regular season first or second in their conference. The only exceptions during that stretch were the incomparable Michael Jordan, who averaged 40 minutes per game for the 1987-88 Chicago Bulls when they finished 3rd in the East, and 2017 winner Russell Westbrook, who was the obvious choice after becoming just the second player ever to finish the season averaging a triple-double.
Other things to look for when betting on the NBA MVP are players who have finished in the top 4 of voting at some point in their career (92% of MVP winners had done this going into the 2017-18 season), players who don’t have teammates who finished in the top 4 of MVP voting the previous year (since they’re often hurt by splitting MVP votes with those teammates) or players who haven’t won the award the previous year (only 8 players have repeated as NBA MVP in the modern era)
With more and bigger names changing addresses in free agency or through trade demands, betting sites are continually putting up odds on where NBA stars will end up playing next.
Anything may seem possible in these situations, especially when rebuilding teams have cleared salary cap space and are desperate to sign a big name to energize their fanbases. However, the reality is that only a handful of teams are realistically in the running to land the services of the Association’s brightest talent.
Endorsement deals have become more lucrative for players than salaries these days, which means small-market franchises like Milwaukee, Portland, Memphis, and Utah are little more than an afterthought for superstars looking for a new home and want to stay in the public eye. And even though the Toronto Raptors have become a powerhouse in the Eastern Conference, they haven’t been able to land any marquee free agents in recent years, likely due to the higher taxes in Canada and the lack of attention they get from the American media.
All of the information available on the Internet and social media has also made it much easier to get a sense of where players are probably headed next. If you stay regularly tuned into NBA insiders, you might be able to know which team a player will sign with before the books change their odds and cash a nice prop in the process.
The explosion in popularity of daily fantasy sports has led to betting sites offering more and more player props in order to compete for your entertainment dollar. Each night, sites like Bovada and 5Dimes are offering dozens of Over/Under player performance props such as total points scored, rebounds, assists, blocks or even a combination of all of them (i.e., points plus assists plus rebounds).
In my opinion, it’s much easier to consistently beat these individual player props than it is to win at DFS. Instead of having to draft an entire roster in DFS and hope that an injury or a bad night by a star player doesn’t derail your team, you are able to focus on one player at a time. With betting sites offering so many props, oddsmakers can’t possibly put that much time and effort into setting odds for those lines, and there are usually some pretty soft numbers that you can exploit.
Ironically, daily fantasy has also made it easier to beat these individual player props. By looking at a player’s salary and projected point total at DFS sites such as FanDuel and DraftKings, you can identify players who are likely to have big games in tonight’s action. If you compare those projected outputs to the props that sportsbooks have posted for those players, you should be able to find some great value.
Just like they have done with player props, sports betting sites have also started offering a lot more options for how you can bet on games. Instead of just posting full-game point spreads, Over/Unders and moneylines, 5Dimes, BetOnline and other sportsbooks are regularly featuring a wide variety of in-game props.
Some of those props are little more than a guessing game, such as whether the Bucks’ final point total will be an even or odd number, or whether the Suns will score the first points of the game. Although these props can be fun to bet, there’s really no way to handicap things like this, and it’s not a good idea to wager any significant amount of money on them.
However, there are some game props in which you can find some edges, particularly the “first team to score 20 points” prop. Once again, oddsmakers don’t put that much time and effort into setting these odds, generally basing them on the full-game line. For example, if the Warriors are a -400 favorite to win the game, they’re also going to be a sizable favorite to score 20 points the quickest.
Underdogs have a lot more value in this prop than they do on full-game lines because it’s easier to beat a better team in a short period than it is over a full 48-minute game. You’ll also find that certain teams have a tendency to start the game strong while others are usually prone to slow starts (NBA first-quarter scoring splits can be found here), which can give you an edge in this prop.
Recent changes in teams’ starting rotations are also a way you can take advantage of props like the first team to score 20 points. Since this bet will likely be decided before each team has subbed in many players off their bench, focusing on the recent performance of starting combinations is key. For example, a team that is suffering from slow starts may input a new player into its starting rotation and see some immediate benefits that won’t be reflected in the odds. Or a team that is known for exploding out of the gate may suddenly find itself sputtering from the opening tip if there’s an injury to a key starter that forces a reserve into the starting lineup.
Point spreads, moneylines and Over/Unders will always be the most popular options when it comes to betting on the NBA, or any sport for that matter.
But I highly recommend you give handicapping the ever-growing selection of NBA props a try. Long-standing trends have emerged that can give us a pretty good sense of who will win the NBA championship, the league MVP or even where stars will end up playing next season, and player and team props can be beaten if you simply do a bit of research and outwork the oddsmaker.
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