Smell that? It’s the smell of regular-season NFL football, which kicks off a mere 7 days from today! I don’t know about you, but it feels like an eternity to me since Nick Foles improbably led the Philadelphia Eagles to a 41-33 upset of the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 52.
But before we get to the main course that is the regular season, we’ve got one more week of appetizers as the NFL Week 4 preseason kicks off tonight. Appetizers might be too flattering of an adjective to use for the final week of exhibition action, since virtually every projected starter in the league won’t see the field as coaches protect their top talent for the games that matter. However, with 16 games all on one night (ensuring every team has similar rest before the regular season), we’ve at least got plenty of choose from if we’re looking for a good game to watch tonight.
Of course, the games are always more interesting when we’ve got some money riding on the outcome, and I’ve circled 3 games tonight that I actually think present some betting value. I personally won’t be wagering nearly the same amount on these picks as I will on a typical regular-season clash, but I still think there’s enough motivational and situational edges on each of these to pull the trigger on a small play.
All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from BetOnline.ag at 8:40 a.m. eastern on August 30, 2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.
This game features one of the highest point spreads on the Week 4 preseason NFL board, as the Saints are laying nearly an unconverted touchdown at home against the Rams. Bookies opened New Orleans as a 4-point favorite before some action on the Saints Wednesday morning saw this line shoot as high as 6 before dropping to 5.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
I don’t generally like going against line movement (particularly in the preseason, when there’s less public money than usual), but I have to make an exception in this case. Not only do I disagree with where the money has gone in the early betting action, I also think it’s opened up extreme value on the underdog Rams.
Alright, so Los Angeles won’t be playing Jared Goff or any of its other top offensive talent. What else is new? Rams head coach Sean McVay has taken the brave and radical approach of not giving any of his offensive starters action in the entire preseason, and his team has still won 2 of its first 3 games (going 2-1 ATS in the process). Although there’s really nothing inspiring about the Rams’ quarterback rotation of Sean Mannion and Brandon Allen, LA doesn’t need much production at QB when it’s running the ball as well as it has. Backup running back John Kelly ran for 64 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 15 carries last week against Houston, a game in which the Rams earned more yards on the ground (129) than they did through the air (119).
In fact, the mediocre status of the Rams’ two backup quarterbacks might mean for a little extra motivation in this contest. Mannion was initially slotted to be Goff’s backup, but a disappointing preseason showing has opened the door for Allen to take his job. Look for both of the Rams’ pivots to bring a maximum focus in this clash and for McVey to coach aggressively on offense as he looks to see whether management needs to consider other options.
New Orleans admittedly has a bit of a quarterback battle of its own behind Drew Brees, who isn’t expected to see the field in this contest. But regardless of whether Tom Savage or Taysom Hill wins the backup job, the Saints already know that either of those pivots are solid options. For that reason, I don’t expect New Orleans head coach Sean Payton to be that concerned with using this game to evaluate his quarterbacks.
Speaking of Payton, he’s not exactly known to prioritize winning in the preseason finale. In fact, he’s been absolutely dreadful in this spot, winning just 1 of 12 Week 4 games in his tenure as New Orleans’ coach. As we noted last week when we successfully backed the Saints, Payton puts a lot more impetus on winning Week 3 (10-3 straight-up in his career). Add in the fact that the Rams’ defense wants to go into the regular season with a solid outing (just in case Aaron Donald’s holdout isn’t resolved by then), and the fact that the total on this game is so low (making the points with the underdog even more valuable), and I love the value we’re getting on the Rams.
It’s no secret that things are different in Seattle these days. The era of the Legion of Doom defense is a thing of the past, dismantled by injuries and aging and free agency and even early retirements. That puts more pressure on an offense that has risen to the occasion when necessary under QB Russell Wilson, but hasn’t exactly been one of the most-feared attacks in the NFL in recent years.
But that doesn’t mean that Pete Carroll is going to accept a winless preseason. In fact, I think it’s even more reason for the Seahawks coach to prioritize a victory in Seattle’s exhibition finale. When expectations are down, an 0-4 preseason record doesn’t do much to silence the naysayers, and it doesn’t do much for morale in the locker room, either. Carroll has long had a preference for going into the regular season off a victory in the final exhibition game, anyway. The veteran coach is 6-2 straight up in Week 4 of the preseason, and I fully expect him to go full out to avoid the first winless preseason of his career.
Raiders coach Jon Gruden also has a sparkling Week 4 record (6-1 straight up), but all of those victories came a lifetime ago before Chucky spent the last decade in the broadcast booth. He might have a different outlook on the importance of this final preseason contest now, especially as he tries to figure out what his preferred choice at backup quarterback is going to be. The Raiders’ offense was simply abysmal last week with Connor Cook and E.J. Manuel at the helm, scoring just 6 points after Derek Carr led them on a first-quarter touchdown drive. Gruden didn’t make any secret of his disgust with Cook and Manuel’s play, but these guys are who they are – quarterbacks who simply may not be able to play any better than this. It’s quite possible that the pressure of playing for a job will make them perform worse, not better, especially in the loud confines of Seattle’s CenturyLink Field.
This isn’t my favorite play on the Week 4 preseason board, but it is one of the few games in which I think one team has a definite motivational and situational advantage on its opponent. Only having to lay a field goal with a squad that always plays with pride at home is enough to put me on the Seahawks -3 here.
What gets the fans’ attention quicker than an 0-4 preseason? An 0-4 preseason when it’s a new coach at the helm. So while Carroll may be motivated to avoid a winless exhibition slate with a victory over the Raiders, we can be certain that Titans first-year coach Mike Vrabel definitely wants to ensure he gets his first career victory under his belt before the regular season begins.
Don’t forget, Vrabel has inherited a team that made the playoffs last season, and hopes are high in Nashville that the Titans will build on last year’s success. Heck, even winning a playoff game last year wasn’t good enough to save the job of previous coach Mike Mularkey, so expectations are clearly high from management. Vrabel’s already well aware of the scrutiny that he’ll be under, particularly in the year until he proves himself. “My playing career is going to help us win zero games,” he told reporters earlier this fall.
Fortunately for Vrabel, most of the players who will see the field in this clash won’t need much added motivation to perform. They’ve already got plenty as the NFL’s deadline for cutting rosters from 90 players in the preseason to 53 for the regular season looms on Saturday. While the Vikings and other teams in the NFL also face the same deadline, I think there’s a lot more roster certainty in Minnesota these days than there is in Tennessee. The Vikings have tremendous depth and talent at most positions, while reports I’ve read indicate that Titans management has a few tough decisions to make before paring down its roster. And after the Titans looked pretty mediocre on offense last week against the Steelers, I’m looking for a focused bounce-back effort from Tennessee here.
What do the Vikings really have to accomplish in this game? Staying healthy seems to be their most important objective. At 2-1 so far in the preseason, I think they’ve shown enough to make coach Mike Zimmer feel pretty good about things going into their regular-season opener against the 49ers. If anything, they might want to give some extra time to projected backup quarterback Trevor Siemian. But I’m fine with Siemian playing longer in this game, since he’s coming off a 4-for-8 performance for three yards last week against Seattle.
The strongest angle in this game, however, remains Vrabel’s motivation to get a win. And with the Titans laying just 1 point here, a straight-up victory by Tennessee assures us of no worse than a push on this wager. That’s enough to get me to the window with the Titans -1 as my third value play of NFL preseason Week 4.
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