The North Carolina Tar Heels face the Miami Hurricanes open Week 5 of NCAA Football with an ACC conference matchup on September 27, 2018 at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
The Tar Heels are fresh off a 38-35 win over the Pittsburgh Panthers in their conference opener at their home field last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are coming off a win over Florida International in Week 4. North Carolina will be looking for their second straight win while the Florida is hoping to win four in a row after dropping their opening week assignment.
North Carolina barged into the winning column last week after dropping their initial two assignments of the season. The Tar Heels wiped out a 21-28 halftime deficit with a 17-0 third quarter explosion to win their first game of the season. North Carolina outgained Pitt 486-402 in total yards and held a 23-20 edge in first downs while scoring a season best 38 points in the victory.
Nathan Elliott has completed just 59 out of 104 passes with three touchdowns and four interceptions. Anthony Ratliff-Williams has 11 catches for 230 yards and one touchdown while Dazz Newsome has 11 catches and 132 yards but other than the two no other Tar Heel has six catches on the season.
The strength of the North Carolina offense is their running game which is led by Antonio Williams who has rushed for a team best 257 yards on 30 carries with three rushing touchdowns. Meanwhile, Freeman Jones has made all of his eight extra point attempts and six of seven field goal tries with the longest one from 49 yards out.
After losing their opening game of the season, the Miami Hurricanes have won three games in a row. Miami prides itself with the 17th best offense in the nation, averaging 43.5 points per game. The Hurricanes’ defense has also picked up after their opening game loss and has allowed an average of 13.67 points in their last three games.
Malik Rosier is passing 38-73 for 611 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions. The senior quarterback has also ran for 88 yards and five scores on the ground. Back-up QB N’Kosi Perry came off the bench to throw 17-225 for 224 yards and three touchdowns. Perry has a total of six scores and two interceptions on the season which could give coach Mark Richt some thoughts on who to start in this game.
Travis Horner leads Miami with 276 yards on the ground on 49 carries and one touchdown while DeeJay Dallas also has one rushing touchdown on 224 yards and 37 carries. Among its receivers, Brevin Jordan has three touchdowns on 119 receiving yards and 12 receptions. Jeff Thomas leads the Hurricanes with 315 receiving yards with two touchdowns.
The Tar Heels lead their all-time series 11-10 and have won two of the last three meetings between these schools but it was Miami-Florida who came out victorious 24-19 the last time these teams played in Chapel Hill last October 28, 2017. No question, Miami has the superior team on both ends of the field. They are tied for 17th in the nation in scoring at 43.5 points per game and they have held their opposition to a total of 41 points in their last three games after giving up 33 in their season opener.
The 16th ranked Hurricanes have won 18 out of their last 22 games SU and are an even better 12-1 SU in their last 13 games at home. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have been struggling regardless of where they are playing. North Carolina is 4-13 SU in their last 17 games overall and 1-5 SU when playing on the road. The trends and stats point to the Hurricanes and if I have to pick an outright winner, I’m going picking Miami-Florida to beat North Carolina on 9/27/18 but at -915, there isn’t enough value in betting on their current moneyline. That leads us to the other bets to make.
North Carolina is 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games, 4-0 in their last four against teams with a winning record and 8-3 in their last 11 Thursday games. Overall, the Tar Heels are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games. On the other hand, Miami is 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
North Carolina is averaging 24.7 points per game while allowing 33.3 points per game on the defensive end. The Hurricanes are going to win this game but after a strong offensive showing last week, the Tar Heels should score enough points to cover the spread. Prediction: North Carolina +18.5
Although the total has gone OVER in four out of Miami’s last five games, the total has gone UNDER in 10 of their last 15. The total has also gone UNDER in 5 out of the last six meeting between these teams and UNDER in the last five out of six when they play in Miami.
These teams have combined to score less than 56 points in 6 out of their last 8 meetings dating back to 2010 so historically, this ACC matchup has been a low scoring affair. Prediction: Under 56
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