The Notre Dame Fighting Irish travel to San Diego for a match up with the Navy Midshipmen in Week 9 of the 2018 NCAA Football season on 10/27/18.
This will be the 92nd meeting between these teams with Notre Dame leading the all-time series 77-13-1. The game will be held at the San Diego County Credit Union Stadium in San Diego.
The Fighting Irish are ranked 3rd in the Nation with their unbeaten 7-0 record and are on the verge of clinching a spot in the playoffs. Notre Dame’s remaining schedule after this game consists of Northwestern, Florida State, Syracuse and USC. With reasonably winnable games ahead of them, it’s more and more likely that Notre Dame is bound for the postseason this coming December.
Ian Book has thrown for 1,115 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions while completing 75.2% of his passes. Book has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his last four games. Miles Boykin is Book’s favorite target with 512 receiving yards on 32 catches with four touchdowns. Meanwhile, Dexter Williams leads the ground attack with a total of 370 rushing yards with 4 touchdowns.
Defense has been the key for Notre Dame as they hold their opponents to 18.7 points per game, 21st in the league. Likewise, they also allow just 126 yards on the ground, giving them the 29th best rush defense in college football.
Navy has lost four straight games after opening the season at 2-1. The Midshipmen have a run heavy offensive attack that has only seen them pass the ball a total of 75 times this season with three touchdowns through the air. On the ground, they have run the ball a total of 423 times, gaining 2,171 yards and scoring a total of 24 rushing touchdowns this season.
Garret Lewis has thrown just a total of 49 passes this season, completing 24 (49%) for a total of 346 yards with two touchdowns and 1 interception. Malcolm Perry leads the running game with a total of 729 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns. Perry has also thrown for 185 yards with one touchdown and one interception.
Notre Dame’s strength is Navy’s Achilles heel as the Midshipmen are outside the Top 100 teams in the nation in terms of defense, allowing 34.3 points per game. In addition, Navy is also allowing its opponents from FBS and FCS to gain 420 yards per game.
The Fighting Irish are 5-0 SU in their last five games while the Midshipmen are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games. Head to head, Notre Dame is 6-1 in their last seven meetings and the Fighting Irish have also won seven out of the last 10 games between these two sides. Notre Dame has won six out of their last eight non-home games while Navy has lost its last eight non-home games.
Navy relies almost exclusively on their running game as they only have 75 pass attempts and 3 touchdowns this season. Meanwhile, the Midshipmen have rushed for 2,171 yards on 423 carriers with 24 touchdowns so it’s no secret what they are going to do in this game. But with Notre Dame owning the 29th best rush defense in the country, Navy will be in trouble.
The Fighting Irish rush defense is allowing just 126 yards on the ground per game and have yielded only seven touchdowns this season. In week 1, they contained top running back Karan Higdon to only 72 yards. I don’t see how the Midshipmen win this game at all. We’re picking Notre Dame to beat Navy on 10/27/18.
Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the AAC and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Navy is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Independents. 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games and 0-5 ATS overall. Notre Dame is 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite by at least 17 points. On the other hand, Navy has covered 11 out of their last 14 games as an underdog by at least 17 points.
Four out of the last five games between these teams have been decided by 10 points or fewer. Don’t forget too that four out of Notre Dame’s seven wins were decided by one score. Lastly, the average point differential between these two teams in their last 10 meetings is 10.5 points. I think that the +23.5 is a boatload of points that you can’t simply ignore. Navy’s offense often leads to marathon drives that scores points and kills the clock so while you can outscore them, there’s a tendency that you can’t blow them out of games. I’m taking the boatmen and the plus points here. Prediction: Navy +23.5
While the under is 9-2 in Navy’s last 11 games at a neutral site and the under is also 8-3 in the last 11 games overall for Notre Dame, the over is 6-2 in the last 8 games between these two teams with an average combined score of 62.88.
The fighting Irish have breached the 30 point mark in their last four games and it’s safe to say that they have a tendency to pounce and beat up weak defenses. Navy ranks 107th in points allowed at 34.3 points per game so Notre Dame should score a bunch of points here, probably in the 40s. Despite losing their last four games, the Midshipmen have averaged 31.25 points per game. 54 to me is very much attainable here. Prediction: Over 54
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