The New York Yankees will host the Oakland Athletics in the American League Wild Card game on October 3, 2018.
The Yankees finished the season with a 100-62 record while the A’s weren’t far behind at 97-65. However, their pitching starters had two very different seasons and that’s probably why both teams are employing different strategies in this game with New York going with a top starter and Oakland going to their bullpen in this contest.
The Yankees’ starters were 65-42 with an ERA of 4.05 while pitching a total of 861.2 innings while the Athletics’ starting pitchers were 52-48 with an ERA of 4.17 while working a total of 824.1 innings this season. The main reason behind this were the injuries to A’s starting pitchers Sean Manaea, Jharel Cotton and others which made manager Bob Melvin use a 15 man pitching rotation.
The Yankees will put their season on the line with Luis Severino opening on top of the hill. The 24 year old right hander has a record of 19-8 this season with an ERA of 3.39 and a WHIP of 1.14. Severino is 10-2 with an ERA of 2.74 in 15 starts at home this season.
Although he’s had his ups and downs this season, Severino finished strong by allowing just four runs in 17.2 innings pitched in his last three starts. Severino will be looking to erase the horror of last year’s wild card game where he was pulled out in the top of the first inning after giving up three runs on four hits while registering just one out.
Severino is 1-1 with an ERA of 6.23 against the A’s this season. Last September 5 in Oakland, he lasted just 2.2 innings after allowing five earned runs and got the loss. However, when he pitched against the A’s at Yankee Stadium last May 13, Severino allowed just five hits and one earned run to pick up the victory.
The Athletics will employ the Opener strategy that the Tampa Bay Rays used for part of their season. The A’s will “start” with Liam Hendricks in the first inning and then go from there. Hendricks is a relief pitcher who has started 8 out of the 25 games he has appeared in. He has a record of 0-1 with and ERA of 4.13 and a WHIP of 1.46. He is only the 4th pitcher in MLB history to pitch a postseason games after having zero wins during the regular season.
The 29 year old right hander is 0-1 in eight starts of 1.2 innings of less this month. Hendricks posted an ERA of 2.08 for the month of September and has pitched seven shutout innings while allowing just four hits in his last seven starts. Last September 4, Hendricks pitched a perfect first inning against the Yankees.
On Wednesday, Hendricks will likely pitch the first and possibly the second inning before Oakland brings in this “pitching by committee” strategy. Once Hendricks is done, the A’s will have 10 other pitchers on hand including starters Edwin Jackson and Mike Fiers as well as relievers Jeurys Familia, Shawn Kelley, Fernando Rodney and Blake Treinen.
The A’s have lost just 29 times in their last 92 games overall and are 9-4 in their last 13 games against the American League East. The Yankees are 72-31 in their last 103 home games and are 22-4 in Severino’s last 26 starts at Yankee Stadium.
Interestingly, Oakland is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall against the Yankees. But the Yankees are 4-2 in their last 6 games at home. They are also 4-1 SU in their last five home games against the A’s. More importantly, the Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 playoff games at home. This one’s at Yankee Stadium so the trend favors the Yankees.
Severino has been splendid at home this season, registering a record of 10-2 with an ERA of 2.74 in 15 starts. On the other hand, the A’s are going to use their bullpen to beat the Yankees in this Wild Card game. Severino has a tendency to blow up a start every now and then and he’s done so in big games as well. But I’m sticking with his solid home record. With the offense these teams have, it’s not gonna be a pitching duel but Severino should hold on. Prediction: New York Yankees -181
Oakland is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road. Against the Yankees, they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games and 7-2 ATS in Yankee Stadium. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games but are only 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
The A’s strategy to use their bullpen could backfire because guys like Mike Fiers and Trevor Cahill have an ERA of 4.67 and 10.05 against the Yankees, respectively. The Bronx bombers were able to drill 10 homeruns in 6 games against the A’s this season and I expect this game to be no different. I think the New York offense is going to be too much for the Oakland bullpen to handle and that they can easily cover the spread here. Prediction: New York -1.5
The total has gone over in 10 out of the last 14 games played by Oakland. The over is also 6-2 in the A’s last 8 road games and in 4 out of the last 6 games against the Yankees. Likewise, the total has gone over in each of the Yankees’ last five games and in four out of their last five games at home.
We’ve seen what both offenses can do during the regular season and when everything is on the line, you’d expect them to come up big. As I said earlier, I don’t expect this to be a low scoring pitching duel. Instead, it’s going to be a back and forth game where I expect the Yankees to prevail in the end. I’m thinking double digit run totals here.
The best bet to make for the Yankees is the +135 on the Spread Odds of -1.5. If you like the A’s then it’s the +171 moneyline odds for you. Personally, I don’t like the bullpen strategy here so I’m going with the Yankees. But there are bettors who don’t want to lay the juice on Severino who has a history of blowing up starts. If that’s the case with you or if you’re not sure about picking a winner here, you might as well go with the Over 8.5 runs. Prediction: Over 8.5
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