The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to the desert to take on the Phoenix Suns on Friday at the Talking Stick Resort Arena. This is the fourth meeting between these teams with the Thunder taking the first three and will be gunning for a sweep on Friday night.
The Oklahoma City Thunder were rolling with a four game winning streak entering this week but they’ve hit a brick wall and have lost two straight games. The Thunder dropped a home game to the Minnesota Timberwolves on December 23 and then lost to the Rockets in Houston on Christmas Day. But if there’s such thing as a silver lining in those twin defeats, it’s the fact that the Thunder lost by an aggregate margin of six points.
The Thunder are led by their All-Star duo of Russell Westbrook and Paul George. George leads the Thunder in scoring at 26.3 points per game. Westbrook is having another triple double season, averaging 20.2 points, 10.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists per game. Steven Adams is having a fine year averaging 16.1 points and 9.9 rebounds per game.
Oklahoma City is the 11th best scoring team in the league at 111.9 points per game. The Thunder rank 24th in assists at 22.6 dimes per game and are the 2nd best rebounding team in the NBA at 48.7 boards per contest. On defense, OKC has the 6th best scoring defense in the league at 105.8 points per game allowed.
With their win over the Orlando Magic on Wednesday, the Suns are now rising as they have won five out of their last seven games to improve to 9-26 on the season. The Suns are now healthy with Devin Booker back and Phoenix’s main man is averaging 30.7 points and 8 assists in his six games since his return. Things should also get better for the Suns who will open a seven game homestand when they face the Thunder on Friday.
Booker leads Phoenix with 25.2 points and 7.0 assists per game. T.J. Warren, who also just came back from injury, is the second leading scorer at 18.5 points per contest. Top overall pick DeAndre Ayton is living up to his billing with 16.3 points and 10.9 rebounds per game for Phoenix.
The Suns are the fifth worst scoring team in the NBA at just 105.1 points per game. Phoenix is ranked 18th in the passing game at 23.9 assists per contest and 28th in rebounding at 41.4 boards per contest. The Suns give up the 7th most points per game at 113.6 points per game.
These teams have played a total of 238 times during the NBA regular season with the Suns leading their all-time series 127-111. The Thunder have won the last five meetings between these teams including the first three of the current season.
Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in their last six games and are 9-8 SU in 17 road games played this season. Meanwhile, the Suns are 5-2 in their last seven games played and Phoenix is also just 5-11 SU at home this season. Head to head, the Thunder are 7-3 SU in their last 10 meetings.
No question that the Thunder have the better team here with Westbrook and George leading the way. No question either that OKC is playing better this season than Phoenix. And in a perfect scenario, it would be easy to pick the Thunder here. But the main issues in this game are Paul George who is listed as questionable with a quad injury and Alex Abrines who has been declared out of this game with an undisclosed illness.
While OKC can live without Abrines, PG13 is a different story. George averaged 29 points and 7.7 rebounds in OKC’s three wins over the Suns earlier this season. On the other hand, the Suns have been healthy lately and they have shown what they can do when they are healthy with five wins in their last seven games.
However, I think the Thunder still have the deeper team here event without George and Abrines. Westbrook is very familiar with carrying his team on his broad shoulders and while he was unsuccessful against the elite teams, he should have success with a young team like Phoenix. The Thunder have not been a standout on the road but neither have the Suns been decent at home. We’re picking the Oklahoma City Thunder to beat the Phoenix Suns on 12/28/18.
Oklahoma City is 18-15 ATS on the season. The Thunder are 9-8 ATS on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Suns are 16-19 ATS in 35 games played so far. Phoenix is an even 8-8 ATS at home so far this year. Head to head, the Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
OKC is 5-2 ATS when playing after a two-day rest. The Thunder are also 9-3 ATS in their last dozen games against an opponent with a winning percentage below .400. The Suns are 2-7 in their last nine games against Northwest Division teams. Phoenix has also struggled with the elites, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with winning records. The Suns are on a winning roll right now but the Thunder are at a different level. Prediction: Thunder -6.5
The under is 4-1 in the Suns’ last five games played on one-day rest. The Suns are in the bottom five in scoring and the Thunder have the 6th best scoring defense in the league. OKC has been excellent in closing out on shooters and that should come handy against Booker who’s been on fire. I think Booker gets his points but overall, the Thunder should impose their defensive presence here. Prediction: Under 224
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