The Oklahoma Sooners take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the 2018 Orange Bowl on Saturday 12/29/18 at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
The game will feature Heisman front-runners Kyler Murray of Oklahoma and Tua Tagovailoa of Oklahoma. But more than a battle of who is more deserving of the Heisman Trophy, a spot at the National Championship game is at stake here.
The Oklahoma Sooners surprised many when they were given the invitation to the 2018 Orange Bowl and they will have to prove their worth on Saturday against the top-rated team in the nation. The Sooners have won seven games in a row and in their most recent outing, they defeated the Texas Longhorns 39-27 in the Big 12 title game. Now Oklahoma will have bigger things in mind as they play not only to upset the Crimson Tide but to earn a spot in the college football championship game.
The Sooners are led by quarterback Kyler Murray who has been playing exceptional football this season. Murray ranks 1st in quarterback rating (205.7), 2nd in passing touchdowns (40) and in completion percentage (70.9), 3rd in passing yards (4,053) and 74th in rushing yards (892). With Murray calling the plays, the Sooners have the highest scoring offense in the nation which no opponent has so far stopped.
The Alabama Crimson Tide have been the NCAA title favorites since the start of the season and they have so far lived up to that billing. The Crimson Tide rank right next to the Sooners in scoring offense with their 47.9 points per game. But unlike Oklahoma which doesn’t have elite defense, the Crimson Tide rank 4th in scoring defense, allowing their opponents to score just 14.8 points per game. Likewise, Alabama ranks 9th in the nation in yards allowed per game at 295.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is right along with Kyler Murray as Heisman favorite. The sophomore QB has completed 67.7% of his passes (ranked 11th) and has tossed for a total of 3,353 passing yards ( ranked 14th). Tagovailoa’s 37 passing touchdowns rank 3rd in college football and he’s only thrown four interceptions on the season. But not only do the Crimson Tide rely on their offense, they use their defense to shut down opponents to get easy wins.
Oklahoma finished the regular season with a 12-1 SU record and the Sooners are 5-0 SU in their last five games played. The Alabama Crimson Tide were an unbeaten 13-0 during the regular season. Head to head, the Sooners are 3-0 SU in their last three meetings against the Crimson Tide.
The Crimson Tide are the best team in the country and not only do they have the 2nd best scoring offense in the nation at 47.9 points per game, they also have the 4th best scoring defense in college football at 14.8 points allowed. On the other hand, the Oklahoma Sooners own the 96th best scoring defense at 32.4 points per game allowed. But they’ve managed to win game after game because of their unstoppable offense which ranks 1st in the nation at 49.5 points per game.
Alabama is favored here for a reason but Oklahoma will have a fighting chance because they have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. The Sooners have gotten away with pretty poor defense because of Murray’s offensive prowess. However, Alabama’s defense may be too good even for Kyler Murray so while I think that the Sooners are going to give this a good fight, I think that the better overall team wins. We’re picking the Alabama Crimson Tide to beat the Oklahoma Sooners on 12/29/18.
Oklahoma was 5-7-1 ATS in 13 games played this season. The Sooners are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games played. Alabama was 8-5 ATS in 13 games played this year. The Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games played. Head to head, the Crimson Tide are 2-1 ATS in their last three meetings.
Alabama has the 4th best scoring defense in the nation but you can always argue that it has never faced a quarterback that’s even close to Kyler Murray. I can’t say for sure which is going to prevail but given that both are without doubt elite, I don’t think that this is going to be decided by a double-digit spread, much more a two-touchdown winning margin. Because of Murray, I think Oklahoma has a true shot at winning outright but should they loses, it won’t be by double digits in my book. Prediction: Oklahoma +14
The over was 10-2-1 in 13 games played by the Oklahoma Sooners this season. The total has gone over in four out of the Sooners’ last five games played. The over was 9-4 during the Crimson Tide’s regular season play and the total has gone over in four out of the last six games played by Alabama. Head to head, the over is 2-1 in the last three meetings between these teams.
The trends point to the over here and that’s because we have the Top 2 scoring teams in FBS. The Oklahoma Sooners are the #1 scoring team in the nation at 49.5 points per game while the Alabama Crimson Tide are a close #2 at 47.9 points per game. With high octane quarterbacks Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa leading both sides, no question this is going to be a shootout. Prediction: Over 77
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