Penn State and Iowa clash in Happy Valley on Saturday 10/27/18 in a showdown between ranked Big 10 foes. The 17th ranked Nittany Lions snapped a two game losing streak with a 33-28 squeaker over Indiana in their last outing while the 18th ranked Iowa Hawkeyes took care of business and defeated Maryland last week for their third straight win.
Penn State leads their all-time series 15-12 and have won the last four meetings between these two teams with the last one a 21-19 victory on the road last September 23, 2017.
Penn State got back in the win column after suffering back to back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. But they remain on a tough stretch as they barely beat the Indiana Hoosiers last week 33-28 in an uninspiring performance. It can be recalled that Iowa blasted Indiana 42-16 in the previous week. Still a win is a win and the Nittany Lions are glad to break out of their losing streak.
Even without Saquon Barkley, Penn State has one of the best running games in the business. The Nittany Lions rank 13th in the nation with an average of 240.7 rushing yards per game. The ground attack is led by junior Miles Sanders who has ran for 772 yards with 8 touchdowns this season. Quarterback Trace McSorley has also contributed with 554 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns as well.
The Iowa Hawkeyes enter this game riding high on a three game winning streak. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 23-0 shutout of Maryland in a game where they showcased their ever improving defense. Iowa allows just 14.1 points per game which is good for fifth in college football and they also surrender 79.6 rushing yards per game, the third best run defense in the nation.
Nate Stanley has thrown for 1,559 yards with 16 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Toren Young leads the ground game with 403 rushing yards and two scores on 42 carries. In their last three games, the Hawkeyes’ offense has outscored their opponents by an aggregate of 113-47. With their offense clicking and their defense locking down their opponents, Iowa is going to be a tough matchup for Penn State here.
Iowa is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played and 13-5 SU in their last 18 games played on the road. Penn State is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played and 18-3 SU in their last 21 games played at home. The Nittany Lions are also 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against the Hawkeyes.
Right now, Iowa is a picture of consistency in running the football and playing good defense. They have outscored their opponents by 22 points in their current three game winning streak. Their offense looks explosive these days while their defense seems to be getting better by the week. On the other hand, the Nittany Lions have been in a tough stretch recently. They lost to Ohio State and Michigan then had a close call versus Indiana in a game where they were favorites by two touchdowns. Based on recent performance, it’s hard to back up Penn State right now. If I were to make a pick here, I’m going with Iowa but since they are the underdogs, I’d like to know if the spread gives me a better option.
The Hawkeyes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games played while the Nittany Lions are 17-7-1 in their last 25 games played and 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games at their home field. Against Iowa though, Penn State is just 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games played.
The Hawkeyes have lost four straight games SU against the Nittany Lions and have lost by an average margin of 15.75 points per game. But given how Penn State has played as of late, it’s hard to place my bet on them. The Nittany Lions had a hard time against a tough defensive team in Michigan State. With Iowa ranked 5th in scoring defense in the nation, I think Penn State struggles here. If Penn State wins, it’s going to be close. But that’s if they do. For added measure, I’ll take the plus points and go with the Hawkeyes here. Prediction: Iowa +6.5
The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by Iowa and also over in four out of the Hawkeyes last five games played on the road. Meanwhile, the over is also 8-2 in Penn State’s last 10 games and over in 4 out of the last 6 games at home of the Nittany Lions.
Head to head though, the total has gone under in four out of the last five meetings between these teams at Happy Valley with an average score of 29.2 points per game. Iowa has gone under in three out of their seven games played this season and have done so with an average combined score of 44.7 points per game through seven games.
In their last 14 meetings, the average score has only been 39.86 with the total going over 53 just twice in those 14 games. The Hawkeyes play a similar run defense to the Michigan State Spartans. When Penn State played Michigan State, the Nittany Lions lost 21-17. Similarly, I think Penn State struggles to score against Iowa, hence making the under my bet here. Prediction: Under 51.5
Iowa is a +215 in the moneyline odds but while I won’t back Penn State here, I can’t discount the possibility that they are going to win this game because after all, they are the favorites here. My insurance policy is the +6.5 spread on the Hawkeyes and although it doesn’t come with plus money at -107 right now, it’s the bet that I can sleep well with tonight.
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