The San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks square off in a Southwest Division showdown at the American Airlines Center on Monday, November 18, 2019.
San Antonio heads to this game with five straight losses. In their last game, the Spurs saw head coach Gregg Popovich ejected against the Portland Trail Blazers. The Spurs are five games off the pace in the Southeast Division. On the other hand, the Mavericks snapped a two-game losing streak with a solid victory over the defending NBA champions Toronto Raptors. The Mavs are just 2-3 SU in their last five games played and are 2.5 games behind the division leaders Houston Rockets.
The Spurs have been the league’s model of consistency. But the current San Antonio team is not the usual Spurs team. San Antonio is 5-8 SU to start the season and they are just in 3rd place in the Southwest Division. The Spurs are in the bottom half in the league in scoring defense and they head to Dallas with a five-game losing streak.
DeMar DeRozan is among the bright spots of the season. DeRozan is averaging 19.8 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game for the Spurs this season. LaMarcus Aldridge is coming off a 30-point effort against the Blazers while Dejounte Murray will return to action after missing their previous game due to load management.
San Antonio is 12th in the NBA in scoring at 112.4 points per game this season. The Spurs rank 5th in rebounding at 47.5 boards grabbed per contest and are 13th in passing at 24.0 assists per game this season. San Antonio is allowing the 8th most points in the league at 114.5 points per game.
There were plenty of questions regarding the Mavericks before the start of the season. Dallas acquired Kristaps Porzingis last season and many wondered if he could quickly jell with Luka Doncic. But Dallas’ Euro duo has clicked and the Mavs look comfortable playing together. They have a winning record at 7-5 SU on the season and are second in the Southwest Division.
Doncic is averaging 28.5 points, 10.7 rebounds and 9.1 assists per game this season. Porzingis is putting up 18.6 points and 8.8 rebounds per contest while J.J. Barea and Tim Hardaway Jr. are scoring 11 points per game apiece. Dallas has a deep rotation with a total of nine players averaging 8 points or higher.
The Mavs rank 10th in scoring at 113.8 points per game this season. Dallas is the 3rd best rebounding team in the NBA at 48.1 boards grabbed per contest and they are 17th in passing at 23.8 assists per outing. The Mavericks are allowing their opponents to score 110.9 points per game this season.
San Antonio is 0-5 SU in their last five games played. San Antonio is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games played on the road. Dallas is 7-5 SU in 12 games played this season. The Mavericks are 3-3 SU in six home games played this season and 1-8 SU in their last nine games played on a Monday. Head to head, the Spurs are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Mavericks. San Antonio is also 7-1 SU in their last 8 home games against Dallas but are the NBA betting underdogs in this contest.
The Spurs are synonymous with success but San Antonio is in the middle of a five-game losing streak right now. Gregg Popovich tried to spark his team the last time out by getting himself ejected against the Blazer but still, that didn’t work. Now Pop has to find a way to end their losing streak at the American Airlines Center against Luka Doncic and company.
The Mavs lost two of three before emerging with a big victory over the Toronto Raptors in Dallas last Saturday night. Luka Doncic had another big game for Dallas and the 2019 Rookie of the Year is having a phenomenal season. Kristaps Porzingis is slowly getting his old game back and Dallas is dangerous with their offense.
San Antonio has struggled to defend opponents this season and should have a tough time dealing with a team that has a playmaker like Doncic who can make things happen for his team. Dallas has the more talented team here and they are playing better basketball right now. I trust Popovich but at 1-4 SU on the road this season, I am forced to go with the home team here.
PREDICTION: DALLAS MAVERICKS
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in their last five games played. The Spurs are 2-3 ATS in five road games played this season and 1-4 ATS in their last five games played against the Western Conference. Dallas is 2-4 ATS in their last six games played. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games played at home, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games played against the Southwest Division. Head to head, the Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played.
The Spurs have outscored the Mavericks by an average of 4.5 points per game in their last 10 meetings and by an average of 7.33 points per game in their previous three encounters. Dallas is playing at home but the Mavs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games played at home and 0-5 ATS in their last five games after an SU win. However, the Spurs have struggled with their defense this season and I think Doncic can produce for Dallas the kind of offense that is going to put San Antonio on the ropes here.
PREDICTION: MAVERICKS -4.5
The total has gone over in five out of the last six games played by the Spurs. The over is 3-2 in the five road games played by San Antonio this season. The total has gone over in 8 out of the last 11 games played by the Mavericks. The over is 5-0 in Dallas’ last five games played against the Western Conference.
These teams have combined to score an average of 202.9 points per game in their last 10 meetings and 207.33 points per game in their most recent three head to head games. However, the Spurs and Mavericks have leaned to the over in their respective games this season. The over is 16-8-1 in their combined 25 games played this year. These two teams are in the Top 12 in the NBA in scoring and both are also in the bottom half in scoring defense. I think this game is going to follow these trends. I expect a high-scoring Texas shootout here.
PREDICTION: OVER 224.5
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