The Stanford Cardinal make the trip to the Sun Devil Stadium as they play the Arizona State Sun Devils in a PAC 12 matchup on Thursday 10/18/18.
Both teams are well rested after taking a bye last week and are looking to return to the win column this week. Stanford is coming off two straight losses while Arizona State is fresh off a loss to Colorado last October 6.
The Stanford Cardinal opened the season with a 4-0 record. But after a fast start, it looks like the wheels are falling off Stanford as they’ve suffered back to back losses to Notre Dame and Utah by a combined margin of 40 points.
Running back Bryce Love has been battling an ankle injury and has missed two games this season. Love, who finished runner up to Baker Mayfield in the 2017 Heisman Trophy voting, has rushed for only 327 yards on 76 carries in four games played. With a one week rest, Stanford could have Love back on Thursday but that’s not a sure thing yet.
Sophomore quarterback K.J. Costello has been good with 26 touchdowns and just 10 pickoffs in two seasons as Stanford starter. But in his last two games, Costello has struggled, throwing just two touchdowns and three interceptions (including two red zone picks) as Stanford was forced to throw the ball in the air almost exclusively in attempts to overcome big deficits against Notre Dame and Utah.
The Arizona State Sun Devils only have a .500 record this season. After scoring a 16-13 upset over Michigan State in week 2, they have stumbled to a 1-3 record and are currently 0-3 on the road. However, their story is different at the Sun Devil Stadium where they are solid at an undefeated 3-0.
Like the Stanford Cardinal, the Sun Devils used their one week break to heal up their very own Manny Wilkins and N’Keal Harry who were banged up during their October 6th loss to Colorado. Quarterback Wilkins has thrown for 1,446 yards this season with 11 scores and just one interception while junior wide receiver Harry 481 receiving yards on 34 catches with 5 touchdowns.
With Stanford’s defense wounded in their last two battles, Wilkins and Harry should be able to help Arizona State move the football well and perhaps even rather easily. With this game slated for primetime, expected the hometown crowd to be loud and proud for their Sun Devils, who should feed off the energy from the audience as they have all season long.
Stanford has won six out of their last 10 meetings, including two out of the last three. In their most recent meeting last September 30, 2017, Stanford emerged victorious at their home field 34-26.
Stanford is 18-7 SU in their last 25 games and 15-7 SU in their last 22 games while playing on the road. On the other hand, Arizona State is 5-1 SU in their last six games. Against the Cardinal, the Sun Devils are just 1-5 SU in their last six meetings but 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home.
Stanford is still reeling off back to back losses and is staring at two straight games against Top 25 teams Washington and Washington State starting next week. They may not be very focused on Thursday and that’s not good against a team like Arizona State who is more dangerous at home. We’re picking Arizona State to beat Stanford on 10/18/18.
Stanford is 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games but 3-5-1 in their last 9 games on the road. Arizona State is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Against the Cardinal, the Sun Devils are 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6 games but 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games against Stanford at the Sun Devil Stadium.
Arizona State has covered the spread in 14 out of their last 19 games at Sun Devil Stadium and have scored at least 40 points in nine out of those 19 games. Against Stanford, Arizona State has also been successful when the Cardinal visit them. The Sun Devils are 6-4 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their all-time meeting including a 26-10 as a 3.5 point underdog in their last meeting in Arizona in 2014. Prediction: Arizona State +2.5
The total has gone under in 28 out of the last 40 road games of Stanford with the average total score being 48.52 points per game. The total has also gone under in five out of the last 6 games between these teams and also under in 4 out of 5 games between these teams in Arizona State’s home field.
The trends favor the under but what we have here isn’t the usual Stanford team that plays good defense and runs the football well. Stanford has given up a total of 109 points in their last three games and they are averaging just 85.7 rushing yards per game, 127th in the nation. Without good defense and a solid running game, Stanford can be easily forced to a shootout, as such was the case in their last two games which they both lost and where the total combined scores were 61 and 55. Prediction: Over 54.5
Because I’m picking Arizona State to win this game outright, the best value bet for me would be the moneyline odds which is the only one with plus money at +120 for the Sun Devils. If you’re not sure about my pick, you can always turn to the spread odds and pick the Sun Devils at +2.5 points for good measure at a good -108 as of 10/16/18. The over 54.5 is at -115 for the taking if you’re not sure about the winner.
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