The 12th ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders will test their top rated scoring defense against the high powered offense of the #2 Duke Blue Devils on 12/20/18 at the fabled Madison Square Garden in New York.
The Red Raiders are 10-0 on the season and are coming off an 82-48 demolition of Abilene Christian while the Blue Devils are fresh from a 101-50 drubbing of Princeton in their last outing.
Jarrett Culver is having a fine sophomore season for the Red Raiders. The 6-5 guard is averaging a team high 19.1 points per game while also contributing 5.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. But the only other double digit scorer on the team is Matt Mooney. The senior is averaging 11.0 points per game this season. But offense isn’t what this team is known for.
Texas Tech is ranked 113th in the nation in scoring, averaging 77.5 points per game this season. The Red Raiders also average 16.4 assists and 37.6 rebounds per game. On defense, they own the top ranked scoring defense in the country at 51.2 points per game allowed. They also hold their opponents to just 32.2% shooting from the field which is also tops in college basketball.
No question that the Duke Blue Devils are one of the best teams in the country right now. But the Blue Devils already have a blemish on their record as they suffered a two point loss to Gonzaga while playing at a neutral venue. Since that loss though, Duke has flexed its muscles and have compiled five straight wins by outscoring their opponents by a total score of 479-280.
Offense is what this Duke team is all about. The Blue Devils are the 5th highest scoring team in the nation at 93.6 points per game. The Blue Devils are shooting the ball at a high .502 from the floor, 12th best in college basketball. The Duke juggernaut offense is by its two freshmen sensations R.J. Barrett and Zion Williamson who average 24.5 and 20.1 points, respectively this season.
The Red Raiders are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games played and Texas Tech is 3-0 on the season at a neutral court. The Blue Devils are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played. Duke is 3-1 when playing at a neutral venue this year.
On paper, this game pits Offense vs Defense with Duke having one of the most explosive offenses in college basketball. But while that statement is partly correct, let us also know who these teams have played against heading into this meeting. Texas Tech’s strength of schedule is ranked only 86th in the nation while Duke’s schedule is ranked 2. This means that Duke has had the 2nd most difficult schedule to date while the Red Raiders had the 86th toughest schedule in college basketball. That said, while I think that Texas Tech is off to a great start, they have done so against inferior opposition and are virtually untested. Duke meanwhile has faced better opposition and have played very well this season. The Texas Tech defense hasn’t seen an offense like Duke’s and I don’t think they can slow it down to a point where they can cover and win. Likewise, I also think Duke has the more superior line-up and should pick up this win. We’re picking the Duke Blue Devils to beat the Texas Tech Raiders on 12/20/18.
Texas Tech is 5-5 ATS on the season and the Red Raiders are 4-4 ATS at home and 1-1 ATS on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are 7-4 ATS in 11 games this season. Duke is 5-3 ATS at home and 2-1 ATS away this season.
The Red Raiders are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference. Texas Tech is also just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games in a neutral site. On the other hand, Duke has a record of 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games. The Blue Devils are also a solid 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after an SU win of more than 20 points. Only one of Duke’s 10 wins have come by fewer than 22 points. Again, I don’t think Texas Tech can slow down this Duke machine. Prediction: Duke -8
The total has gone under in 7 out of the last 10 games played by the Red Raiders. The under is 2-6 when Texas Tech is at home and the O/U is 1-1 when they are on the road this season. For Duke, the total has gone under in nine out of their 11 games played. The under is a perfect 8-0 when the Blue Devils play at home however the over has been 2-1 when they are away.
Texas Tech has averaged 79.4 points in their last five games played. The Red Raiders have not scored fewer than 65 points in those five games. On the other hand, the Blue Devils have averaged 95.8 points per game during their current five game winning streak and have scored below 90 points in just one of those five games. The under has hit in 9 of 11 Blue Devils games but that’s because the total hasn’t been lower than 157.5 in their last 10 games played, Duke is going to score at will here and I think that 145.5 is a low total for a game with Duke on one side. Prediction: Over 145.5
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