Week 4 of Stage 4 of the Overwatch League is already underway and today’s matches offer several Overwatch betting opportunities. This article analyzes these matches but first, let’s have a look at what the teams have done so far in Stage 4.
Match date: June 8th
After a record-setting performance in Stage 3 (10 W – 0 L), Boston Uprising lost its head coach and apparently almost all of its former strength. It’s pretty remarkable how much a team can drop in such a short period of time. It only took 10 days for Uprising to go from king of the hill to throw-it-in-the-bin material. Currently sitting on a 1 W – 6 L record, the team will no doubt try its best to win the final 3 matches of Stage 3 in order to get a slightly better placement.
Ah, Shanghai Dragons. The team that never wins, no matter what. It’s like this roster is cursed or something. How exactly do you go on for 37 matches without winning a single one of them? It’s unheard of! But, if you’re an Overwatch bettor, this team is actually a blessing in disguise. You can bet unusually high amounts against it and you just never lose. The returns aren’t amazing, but they add up when you bet match after match, knowing that Shanghai Dragons will never disappoint.
Needless to say, every type of statistic you want to look at favors Boston Uprising to win this match. Betway puts the odds at 1.15 – 4.75 in favor of Uprising, clearly anticipating an easy victory in its favor.
Betting prediction: Boston Uprising to win.
Florida Mayhem is the second weakest team in the league, having gotten consistently poor results throughout all of its stages. Overall, Mayhem has a 7 W – 30 L record and that’s an absolutely abysmal win rate. You can pretty much expect this team to lose every single match except when playing against Shanghai Dragons.
Dallas Fuel has made somewhat of a comeback in Stage 4, winning important matches against the likes of London Spitfire and Philadelphia Fusion. Its current 4 W – 3 L record is much better than its Stage 3 result (1 W – 9 L).
Every kind of statistics favors Dallas Fuel to win this match. The skill difference between these two teams is huge at the moment, so a bet on Fuel is a low-risk decision that yields some really high returns.
Betway puts the odds for this match at 2.95 – 1.35 in favor of Dallas Fuel, giving Florida Mayhem a lot of undeserved credit in my opinion. Fuel’s chance of success is much higher than what these odds suggest.
Betting prediction: Dallas Fuel to win.
Philadelphia Fusion finished 8th in Stage 3, doing ok but nothing spectacular. Overall, 5 wins and 5 losses. In this stage, the team seems to follow an identical trend as it’s heading towards a very similar result in terms of win/loss ratio. So far, it won against the 3 dead teams from the bottom of the standings table, namely Shanghai Dragons, Florida Mayhem and Boston Uprising, as well as against San Francisco Shock. This last victory was actually quite nice and it showed that Fusion still has what it takes to be a strong team.
Seoul Dynasty has had a miserable Stage 4, with just 2 wins against poor opponents (Shanghai Dragons and Florida Mayhem) and 5 painful losses. From time to time it looked as if Dynasty could win an important match (2 – 3 against Los Angeles Valiant and London Spitfire for example), but overall the team seemed lost.
In terms of overall results throughout the Overwatch League, Philadelphia Fusion is slightly better. Recent form statistics also favor it to win this match. But the head to head results suggest that Seoul Dynasty is actually the stronger side. Still, I’m not sure how much those results weigh in this equation, given that the current Dynasty is much weaker than the previous ones.
Betway puts the odds at 1.35 – 2.95 in favor of Philadelphia Fusion, clearly seeing Seoul Dynasty as being a shadow of its former self. I’m not entirely sold on this but overall, I do agree that Fusion should win this match.
Betting prediction: Philadelphia Fusion to win.
Match date: June 9th Odds: to be announced on Betway.com
London Spitfire is the Stage 1 champion and has all the ingredients to win, but something is holding it back. In its first match of this week, Spitfire lost a close match against Los Angeles Valiant (score 1 – 2), by far the strongest team in the league right now. Overall, its Stage 4 results have been poor: just 3 wins and 4 losses. Among the defeated opponents I would mention San Francisco Shock and Seoul Dynasty.
Los Angeles Gladiators is absolutely owning right now. Just one loss (against LA Valiant) and 6 wins so far in Stage 4, the latest against the OWL giants from New York Excelsior. Things never looked better for Gladiators, who are now looking to get a top 3 finish in Stage 4 and play in the Title Matches once again.
Both recent form (3 W – 4 L vs. 6 W – 1 L) and head to head results (0 – 3) clearly favor LA Gladiators to win this match.
Betting prediction: Los Angeles Gladiators to win.
No doubt, New York Excelsior is still the strongest team in the league in terms of overall results, in spite of losing its last two matches: 2 – 3 against Los Angeles Valiant and 2 – 3 against Los Angeles Gladiators. Based on their Stage 4 performance and also on the head to head record between these two teams (2 – 0 in favor of Excelsior), New York Excelsior is clearly favorite to win this match.
Betting prediction: New York Excelsior to win.
Houston Outlaws has had a very good run so far in Stage 4, but it’s highly unlikely that it will manage to beat Los Angeles Valiant, a team that seems completely unstoppable right now. Just last week, LA Valiant took down New York Excelsior in a close match (3 – 2) and is currently sitting on a perfect 7 W – 0 L record.
Last time they met (in Stage 3), Houston Outlaws won the match with a score of 3 – 1. But things have changed a lot since then and it’s unlikely that Outlaws will be able to achieve a positive result against this version of LA Valiant.
Betting prediction: Los Angeles Valiant to win.
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