For the University of Minnesota (17-9, 7-8 Big Ten), they find themselves on the bubble when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. An upset win over visiting No. 7 Michigan (23-3, 12-3 Big Ten) could transition their potentially busting bubble to a protective one to get them into the dance.
The reason for the Golden Golphers’ dwindling bubble: A four-game losing streak from February 3-13 that included losses to Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Nebraska — all conference opponents at that. Minnesota would recover a little with a blowout 84-63 win over iconic college basketball brand Indiana, but an upset over the Wolverines tonight is needed if they hope to make the field in March — and they’re sitting in a pretty position to do so.
In their first meeting on January 22 against Michigan, the Golphers would nearly return from a 13-point deficit with just 9:12 to go in the game — as well as being down 10 with just 4:54 to go — to nearly upset the Wolverines at Ann Arbor. They would eventually lose, 59-57, off of a miracle game-winning shot at the buzzer from Michigan’s senior Charles Matthews.
In their last two games, Minnesota has had an interesting journey. At Nebraska, they would take a one-point heartbreaking loss to put them on the four-game losing streak. The Golden Golphers would then return with a vengeance destroying the Hoosiers, even leading the game by 30 points at one point. They would shoot a blazing 48.3 FG%, and also were amazing from behind the arc at 54.5 3PT%. Now they come into this matchup against the Wolverines with momentum and hot numbers.
“We’ve had some good ones at home offensively. We have not had some good ones on the road,” Minnesota head coach Richard Pitino commented to the media. “We’ve just got to understand where we’re getting some good shots. Stick with the execution. The same offense that’s producing 90-something versus Iowa, 80-something versus Illinois, 80-something versus a really defensive Indiana team. It’s just being fundamentally sound. Not turning the ball over is really, really important.”
Getting a win tonight is even more important for Minnesota as well when you look at the remaining schedule: Three out of their last four games in the regular-season are on the road.
Jordan Murphy, senior forward for the Golphers, would tally a double-double against the Hoosiers with a stat sheet of 23 points and 11 rebounds. Freshman Gabe Kalscheur would hit 6-for-8 from the three-point line, and would score 20 points.
“No one wants to lose, and it’s tough when you’re losing like that,” Kalscheur told reporters. “But we got this win, and we’re going to turn it around.”
In Minnesota’s defense as well, the loss to the Cornhuskers would be a controversial one. After a foul was called against Amir Coffey (that maybe shouldn’t have been called), Nebraska would hit their two free throws with just 1.1 seconds left in the game to solidify the win, 62-61.
“We’re not going to change the record. We’re not going to appeal anything,” Pitino said to the press. “It doesn’t matter. There’s only one thing you can do. It’s play angry. Don’t feel sorry for yourselves. We’ve got to create our own luck.”
In their last game, Michigan would steamroll over their opposition for a 13-point victory. They would defeat the Maryland Terrapins by a score of 65-52 at Ann Arbor, and did so with an extraordinarily dominant lock-down defense. They would obtain this victory after a horrible road loss in State College, Pennsylvania to Penn State University, a team who is placed dead-last in the Big Ten.
“We take stuff personal. We played this game thinking we were playing Penn State again,” sixth man Isaiah Livers commented to the Detroit News, a major newspaper. “We took it personal and (that) loss was bad. I think everybody on the team — down to our walk-ons and maybe even our managers — didn’t feel good after that game because we knew we could play better.”
The Wolverines’ shut-down defense held Maryland to just 34.6% shooting from the field, and also forced the Terrapins into 16 turnovers.
“I had no doubt our defense would be strong,” Michigan head coach John Beilein told the media.
In their last contest against Minnesota, the Wolverines would struggle with shooting the ball. They would hit 33.9% of their shots from the field, and would hit just two out of their 22 shots from behind the arc. But like the Maryland game, it was their elite defense that gave them the win forcing Minnesota into 16 turnovers — and their ball handling was exception as well, tallying just six turnovers on their own stat sheet.
Tip-off between No. 7 University of Michigan (23-3, 12-3 Big Ten) at University of Minnesota (17-9, 7-8 Big Ten) is set for 7:00 PM ET, and will be nationally televised on ESPN. The Wolverines enter as the -5.0 point favorite over the Golden Golphers.
The fab freshman out of Canada is doing his thing for the Michigan Wolverines, and is effective in both points production and rebounding on the stat sheet. In points-per-game, Brazdeikis tallies just -0.5 points away from the 15.0 PPG mark with an average of 14.5 PPG, which leads the team, and his shooting has been solid as well at 45.7 FG%. On the glass, he eclipses the five threshold with a figure of 5.2 RPG. Brazdeikis also adds 1.0 APG, 0.8 STLPG and 0.5 BLKPG to his line.
The 7’1″ junior big-man for Michigan will be a headache for Minnesota tonight, and that’s evident of his stat line producing in both points and on the glass — as a matter of fact, the Wolverine center leads the team in rebounding. (Duh, right? He’s over 7-foot.) In scoring production, Teske is -1.0 away from hitting a double figure with an average of 9.0 PPG. On the rebounding side, his team-leading mark places over the five mark at 6.4 RPG. And he’s also a force on the defensive side with a massive block stat of 2.2 BLKPG.
The kid representing his home-state university at Minnesota leads the team in scoring, and he’s also producing a bit in both rebounding and the assist market. With his points production, he places over the 15 threshold with a scoring tally of 15.3 PPG, though Coffey’s shooting could be a bit higher than his 43.9 FG%. On the battle of the boards, Coffey does his fair share bringing down an average of 3.2 RPG. He’s also adding a few more points to the scoreboard with his 3.1 APG. Coffey also adds 0.8 STLPG and 0.1 BLKPG to the sheet.
The senior Golden Golpher has been massively effective this season averaging a double-double in both scoring and rebounding. With the offensive production, Murphy places just -0.3 behind his teammate Amir Coffey’s team-leading mark — Murphy averages 15.0 PPG. His shooting has also been near-elite with a 49.8% mark from the field. His second double figure comes in the rebounding department where he nearly hits 12 at 11.9 RPG. Just dominating numbers. He also adds 2.7 APG, 0.9 BLKPG and 0.7 STLPG to his line.
Go ahead and place Michigan on upset alert — I’ve seen this story before. Not only are the Wolverines coming into tonight on the road against a team who nearly beat them at home, but Michigan is also forced to share two of the four main line statistical categories. (points-per-game, field goal percentage, rebounds-per-game, points against) In scoring, they lack a slim -2 at 70.4 PPG, while they hold a +1 grip from the field at 45.0 FG%. On the glass, they fall another close -2 at 35.2 RPG. But make up for it on defense at +12 with their 57.6 PA.
The Golden Golphers need a win tremendously tonight to keep their chances alive of getting into the NCAA Tournament, and they have a pretty good opportunity to do so. Matching up the offenses, Minnesota has a +2 edge in potency with 72.6 PPG. From the field, however, they lack at -1 with an average of 44.2 FG%. On the glass, they enter back into the green with a +2 edge tallying 37.5 RPG. But here’s the problem for the Golden Golphers tonight: A massive -12 hit with their defensive production of 69.5 PA.
THE BREAKDOWN: After taking a horrible road upset to the Penn State Nittany Lions a couple of games ago, Michigan will be looking to avoid another setback — this time against a team who can ball in 17-9 Minnesota. With the Golden Golphers taking two of the four statistical categories and having the homecourt advantage at Williams Arena, it’s appropriate to place the Wolverines on upset alert.
Keep in mind that at home this season, Minnesota has only lost two out of 17 games for a record of 15-2. Needless to say, they’re deadly when in Minneapolis. For the Wolverines, they bring a solid 7-3 away record into tonight’s contest, but they’re obviously beatable (especially with the loss at PSU). As a favorite this season, Michigan currently tallies an elite 22-3 record, but the Golphers have pulled three upsets this season with their 3-7 record as an underdog. Here’s another thing that concerns me for the Wolverines: They’re hovering around .500 at 14-12 against the spread, but they do have a winning 6-4 ATS Away. Minnesota, on the other hand, is a losing 8-9 ATS Home. In their last ten games, Michigan has posted an effective 7-3 record, while the Golden Golphers have been on the losing end at 4-6. Here’s the most damning record of them all for Minnesota though: In their last 10 games against the Wolverines, they post a dismal 1-9 record.
As tempted as I am to pick Minnesota for the upset, I just can’t do it with the current stretch that the Golden Golphers have been on (and the history between the two schools as well). Yeah, they destroyed Indiana, but they lost four games in a row before that game. Against a Michigan team who is getting hot and into perfect form right before March, I just don’t see Minnesota having the appropriate fire-power to keep up — earlier in the season, I may have picked the Golphers for the upset. Take Michigan for the win. With the -5.0 point spread, go ahead and take the Wolverines to cover. Michigan has a winning 6-4 ATS record in their last 10 games, and the current form I previously mentioned should wear out the Golphers. The win won’t be easy by any means, expect Minnesota to hold their own, but I don’t think they’ll hang tight with the Wolverines for a full 40 minutes.
Take Michigan to cover in a distant victory. With the O/U at 134, definitely take the under. Michigan will score around 70, no doubt about that, but the concern for an over bet is Minnesota’s offensive production against the Wolverines’ defense — Michigan ranks third in the nation with an average of 57.6 PA. I have my doubts the Golphers can score against that. I’ll give them the benefit and land them at 62 — that would put my point total at 132, -2 under the 134 threshold (and that’s giving Minnesota the benefit of the doubt). Yeah, certainly take the under.
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