The UFC’s second Fight Island series will conclude this weekend with UFC 254: Khabib vs Gaethje. The event will be held on Saturday, October 24th at the Flash Forum at Yas Island in Abu Dhabi.
UFC 254 will be headlined by the UFC lightweight championship bout between champion Khabib Nurmagomedov and interim champion/challenger Justin Gaethje. This bout was sealed after Gaethje knocked out Tony Ferguson at UFC 249 last May 9th. The UFC was trying to set up Khabib vs Ferguson but the Highlight spoiled the UFC’s plans.
This will be Khabib’s first bout since the death of his father who was his longtime trainer. Although that could hurt him emotionally, it could also inspire the champion to do better in this fight. Meanwhile, Gaethje is hoping that his recent activity will play advantage for him. The Highlight has fought twice since Khabib’s last octagon appearance and he hopes to win the real belt in his third fight of the year.
Let’s take a look at the protagonists of this weekend’s UFC 254 main event at Fight Island.
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the UFC lightweight champion. The 32-year old from Dagestan is the first Muslim to win a UFC title. The Eagle is a two-time combat sambo world champion and the current no. 2 ranked pound for pound fighter in the UFC. He holds the longest active winning streak in MMA at 28 wins and counting. He will be making the third defense of the lightweight belt he won at UFC 223.
Nurmagomedov is 5-10 tall with a reach of 70 inches and is an orthodox fighter. He has a record of 28-0 with 8 knockouts and 10 wins via submission. In his last bout at UFC 242 last September 7, 2019, he submitted Dustin Poirier via rear-naked choke at the 2:06 mark of the third round. His last three wins have come against Al Iaquinta, Conor McGregor, and Poirier.
He is an excellent wrestler who averages 5.35 takedowns per 15 minutes and he matches that with great conditioning that allows him to push the pace for the entire duration of the bout. Much has been criticized for his lack of striking. However, he stood toe to toe with Conor McGregor in Round 3 of their bout and didn’t take significant damage. In the fifth round of his fight with Al Iaquinta, he took a significant amount of damage but was able to stay on his feet.
Justin Gaethje is the interim UFC lightweight champion. The 31-year old from Arizona in the United States is a former WSOF lightweight champion. The Highlight is a former NCAA Division 1 All-American from the University of Northern Colorado. But while he has an excellent wrestling background, he has not needed it in the pro ranks because he possesses freaking punching power. Gaethje won the interim belt by knocking out Tony Ferguson at UFC 249.
Gaethje is 5-11 tall with a reach of 70 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. In his last bout, he accepted a short notice fight against Tony Ferguson and snapped El Cucuy’s 12 fight winning streak. In his last three bouts, Gaethje has defeated Edson Barboza, Donald Cerrone, and Ferguson.
The Highlight loves to brawl against his opponents. He is averaging 7.74 significant strikes landed per minute at a 59% accuracy. However, he also has a very high average in strikes absorbed at 8.37 per 15 minutes. 20 out of his 22 wins have been by finish including 19 knockouts. He has yet to land a takedown in the UFC but has been taken down only twice during his UFC career.
Khabib’s game plan is no secret. As he said in one of the pre-fight media appearances, he will take Gaethje down 100 times if that’s what he needs to do to beat Gaethje. The Eagle took down Iaquinta six times, McGregor thrice, and Poirier seven times. Gaethje however, has a very good 80% takedown defense and that could be the difference-maker in this fight.
As for Gaethje, he must try to end things right away. With Khabib not fighting since UFC 242, ring rust could be an issue for the champion. Look for Gaethje to try and end things early, before Khabib will find his rhythm, There is no question that Gaethje has one-punch knockout power. But can he land his punches before he gets grabbed and rag-dolled by a smart fighter like Khabib?
I think the key here will be Gaethje’s takedown defense. He has a good one at 80% but we’ve seen how relentless Khabib has been with putting his opponents down on the mat.
What’s interesting here is that Gaethje does have an elite wrestling background, although we haven’t seen him use it yet in the UFC. With his punching power, he’s never needed his wrestling before. But against the most dominant wrestler in the sport, will it show up?
If he was up against a striker, I would give Gaethje props because while he takes so much damage on the feet, he’s like the Korean Zombie, he just keeps coming forward. But that could be useless here against an opponent who is determined to take him down, as he said, 100 times if necessary.
There’s that unknown on Gaethje’s unseen wrestling and he could turn up a surprise. Gaethje also has knockout power and every fight starts on the feet, so a year, he does have a chance here. But between those and Khabib consistently taking down every opponent he’s faced and dominating them on the ground, I’ll pick the sure thing.
Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov -335
Khabib averages just over 13 minutes per fight while Gaethje’s is even shorter at 10+ minutes per bout. Nurmagomedov has gone past three rounds only twice in his career although it happened in two out of his last three bouts and against two strikers in Al Iaquinta and Conor McGregor. Gaethje too has gone past three rounds only twice, in his loss to Poirier and his win over Ferguson. These are two fighters who love to finish fights ASAP.
Prediction: Under 4.5 (-200)
Khabib has 11 first-round finishes but none since Thiago Tavares in 2013. Gaethje has nine of them, including three out of his last four bouts. I think this one has a chance, given Gaethje’s punching power. And given that Khabib hasn’t fought since September, he could come in rusty. Gaethje’s best chance of betting Khabib is going for the early stoppage and I think he knows that. Before Nurmagomedov gets warmed up and starts taking him down, that’s where the best window of opportunity is. The plus money is tempting. If you’re picking Gaethje, this bet could be a good idea. However, I’m going with Khabib here so it’s a no for me.
Prediction: No -400
Khabib has finished 18 out of 28 fights although two of his last four have ended in a decision. On the other hand, all but two of Gaethje’s total fights have ended prematurely. These are two fighters who go for the finish. Given their contrasting styles, one has to win over the other. Either way, it’s not going the distance.
Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov -120
Same explanation as above, these fighters seldom see the judges’ scorecards. Prediction: No -210
This one is tricky for me because while I think Khabib finishes the fight, he can do so in many ways. If he gets the chance, he will go for the neck. If he doesn’t he’s going to ride on top of you and pound you out to victory. I’ll go with history and Khabib’s fight record says he’s won more via submission than knockout so I will go with that. If you’re picking Gaethje though, it’s much easier. He only has one submission win and two wins by decision.
Prediction: Khabib by Submission +210 if you’re betting on the Dagestani but Gaethje by KO, TKO, DQ at +400 if you’re picking Gaethje.
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