The UFC will hold its first ever event in Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada as Volkan Oezdemir faces Anthony Smith in UFC Fight Night 138 at the Avenir Centre.
This is the UFC’s first event since its highly successful UFC 229 earlier this month. But while this event may not have the star power of its predecessor, it’s has the makings of an exciting event with interesting matchups from top to bottom.
In the main event, former UFC light heavyweight title challenger Volkan “No Time” Oezdemir will face Anthony “Lionheart” Smith in a 205 pound scrap that should put one of them back in the Top 10 of the UFC’s light heavyweight division.
Volkan Oezdemir enters this fight with a record of 15-2 with 11 knockouts and 1 submission. Oezdemir is 6-2 with a reach of 75” and fights out of the orthodox position. In his most recent bout, Oezdemir was stopped in the second round by Daniel Cormier at UFC 220 in a UFC light heavyweight title fight.
Oezdemir is a well rounded fighter who lands an average of 5.91 significant strikes per minute at a 47% accuracy rate while absorbing 5.14 significant strikes over the same period. The man called “No Time” has a strike defense of 56% and 71 takedown defense.
Anthony Smith has a record of 30-13 with 17 wins by way of knockout and 10 via submission. Smith is 6-4 with a reach of 74” and fights out of the orthodox position. Smith is coming off an 89 second knockout win over former 205 pound king Mauricio “Shogun” Rua most recently at UFC Fight Night 134.
At best, Smith is a mediocre fighter. His weaknesses are obvious: he doesn’t have good defense, if any at all, whether on the ground or in the stand up. The good thing for him is that Oezdemir hasn’t scored a takedown in the UFC so far so that leaves him with a 50-50 chance of knocking out his opponent. Having said that, I think this is a pick ‘em fight but I’m going with the fighter who has more “heart” and who has the gas tank to go the full route. Anthony Smith is going to hang around and then surprise Volkan Oezdemir with a late knockout. Prediction: Smith +155
The co-main event was supposed to be the highlight of the event as it originally featured Khabib Nurmagomedov teammate Zubaira Tukhugov against Conor McGregor pal Artem “The Russian Hammer” Lobov in a featherweight scrap. However, Tukhugov was removed from the bout after his involvement in the UFC 229 brawl. Enter Michael “The Menace” Johnson who is taking this fight on short notice.
Johnson is 5-10 with a 73 inch reach advantage and fights out of the southpaw stance. The Menace has a record of 18-13 with 8 knockouts and 2 submission wins. Displaying speed, quickness and explosive punching power.
The Russian Hammer is 14-14-1 with 1 no-contest, four wins by knockout and two victories by submission. Although he has 14 losses, Lobov has only been knocked out once. He is good with his hands and has above average boxing skills. He’s gone the distance in all six of his UFC bouts but has just won two of those fights. Lobov stands 5-9 and has a reach of 65 inches.
What hurts Lobov are his short arms. His reach is only 65 inches and he’s had problems striking with longer opponents. Johnson has an 8-inch reach advantage here but despite his many flaws, Lobov is very durable and continues to put the pressure on his opponents. Meanwhile, Johnson has proven to crumble when under heavy duress. I don’t know if it’s a mental thing but the Menace gets rattled when his opponents are all over him. Because of that, Lobov is a live dog here but I’m still going with Johnson mainly because he has the experience, is longer and has the better overall game. Prediction: Johnson -650
But since Johnson is valued high at the moneyline odds, the over/under may be the better bet. Per Sportsbetting.ag, the over/under line is set at 2.5 rounds for this fight in which case is the 2:30 mark of Round 3. I don’t think Johnson or Lobov can get a stoppage here so I’m leaning with the over 2.5 which is now at -175. Prediction: Over 2.5 -175
Misha Cirkunov is 13-4 with 4 knockouts and 8 submissions. The Russian born Canadian stands 6-3 and has a reach of 77 inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. Cirkunov is a well rounded fighter. He is an accurate striker who lands an average of 4.53 significant strikes per minute at a 51% accuracy. On the ground, he averages 4.44 takedowns per 15 minutes on a 56% takedown accuracy. He also averages 1.5 submissions per 15 minutes.
Patrick Cummins got noticed when he was a late replacement opponent for Daniel Cormier in his UFC debut. Of course he was mauled but he’s been able to stick around. Cummins has a record of 10-5 with 4 knockouts and 2 submission victories. At 6-2 with a reach of 76 inches while fighting as an orthodox fighter, Cummins lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute at a 50% accuracy rate. Cummins lands 4.62 takedowns per 15 minute but in his last bout, he was taken down a total of 12 times by Corey Anderson.
Misha Cirkunov should win this bout rather easily because he has the edge wherever this fight goes. Cummins may have a better shot at pullling off the upset from the ground but I doubt if he can keep this fight down for the most part. On their feet, Cirkunov is the more superior fighter in terms of skill, he should dominate Cummins in the striking battles. Unless he gets careless ang gets caught, Cirkunov should win a stand up battle. Prediction: Cirkunov -450
If we take a loot at the over/under bet for this one, Sportsbetting.ag tells us that the over/under line is set at 1.5 rounds or at the 2:30 mark of round 2. Cirkunov has knockout power but I’m not sure if he stops a guy as tough as Cummins. This one should go the distance with Cirkunov winning on points. Prediction: Over 1.5 +100
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
