The UFC returns to Calgary, Alberta, for the first time in six years. The last time the UFC was in Calgary, the event was “cursed.” The fighters who were supposed to headline UFC 149 never made it on fight night for one reason or another. The likes of Jose Aldo, Shogun Rua, Yoshihiro Akiyama, and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira pulled out of the event one after the other. The result was what many called a “cursed” UFC 149.
On July 28, 2018, though, UFC on Fox 30 looks good to go as advertised with just a couple of days left before showtime. Barring any unfortunate event, it should deliver the excitement that left fans with mixed emotions six years ago.
Let’s take a look at the key fights of UFC Calgary.
When former UFC lightweight champion Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier first fought, the ending was controversial. Let’s take a look at why.
The two fought in a back-and-forth brawl at UFC 211 that ended with Alvarez drilling Poirier with a couple of illegal knees to the head that forced a stoppage in the fight. The bout was ruled a no-contest, and now we are looking at a closure to one of the UFC’s most anticipated rematches of the year.
The UFC had to go through the proverbial eye of the needle to get the rematch done. According to Poirier, the UFC tried to make the fight on five different occasions, but on each try, Alvarez turned down the offer. Furthermore, Alvarez insisted that he wouldn’t fight again without a brand-new contract. Thankfully, that part is done now, and the two are finally set to fight again on July 28th.
Since losing the UFC lightweight title to Conor McGregor at UFC 205, Eddie Alvarez has fought just twice. First was that no-contest with Poirier, and the other was a thrilling slugfest with Justin Gaethje at UFC 218, which Alvarez won by KO. As we said, contractual issues were the main reason behind that. But with everything settled, the Underground King is ready to resume his violent ways.
On the other hand, Dustin Poirier has fought twice since that fateful evening in Dallas. Poirier recorded back-to-back KOs of Anthony Pettis and Justin Gaethje at UFC Fight Night 120 and UFC on Fox 29, respectively. Poirier won Fight of the Night honors on both occasions. He isn’t only looking for a third post-fight bonus here. The Diamond is looking for vindication over Eddie Alvarez.
Dustin Poirier is the top striker in the lightweight division with an average of 7.25 strikes landed per minute. He is also fifth in accuracy, landing 50.54% of his significant strikes. Eddie Alvarez, meanwhile, is 9th in the division in strikes with his 4.68-per-minute average, so this is a battle between two elite strikers.
Poirier leads off with a stiff right jab and also has heavy kicks that set up his powerful straight hand. Similarly, Alvarez is equally powerful and can end any fight at any given moment with his power punch. The difference between the two is that Alvarez is a much better wrestler. But while Poirier isn’t as good on the ground, he has excellent takedown defense and can’t be put down easily.
Since 2014, both fighters have a combined record of 12-4 with 8 knockouts or TKOs. So there is a good chance that this one is ending prematurely. The first fight was an absolute brawl – bloody and bruising. It was a back-and-forth affair where we saw both fighters land their best strikes on one another.
The rematch shouldn’t be any different. When you have a fighter with the power and striking ability that Eddie Alvarez has, you’ve got to consider him and the plus money. With both attributes, Alvarez always has a chance to win any fight. Against Poirier, he has more experience. But the Diamond seems to have Eddie Alvarez figured.
Like the first bout, he will look to control the octagon and pressure Alvarez. Because Poirier has the more diverse striking game, Alvarez will go back to his wrestling and try to ground the Diamond. If he can put Poirier on his back, this is his fight to win. But if Poirier stuffs his takedowns, we’re probably going to see him out-strike Eddie Alvarez. Remember that Poirier out-struck Alvarez 79-44 before the fight was halted.
This one has the potential for explosives, just like the first one. But after what happened in their first encounter, you’ve got to think that both men will be cautious of the other here. But then again, maybe not. Whether it ends in a KO or goes down to a decision, the Diamond has Eddie’s number here. We’re picking Dustin Poirier to win this rematch.
Jose Aldo returns to the UFC octagon to face Jeremy Stephens in a featherweight bout that should have title implications.
Aldo was the WEC featherweight champion who was promoted to UFC champion when the promotions merged. He went on to defend the belt seven times (9, including his WEC title defenses) before losing it to Conor McGregor at UFC 194. Since that defeat, Aldo has fought just thrice, losing his last two to Max Holloway.
Considered one of the best featherweights ever, Aldo is looking for one more title run, and at age 31, he is still physically ripe to do the job. However, it seems that Aldo is already past his prime. His defeat to McGregor changed not only his career but also his confidence. If he can regain that confidence against Stephens, this is his fight to win.
While Jose Aldo has been there and done that, Jeremy Stephens is still looking for that big break. In fact, this is the big fight that he has long waited for. Stephens has never fought for a world title before, and an impressive performance against Aldo could put him in line for that title fight.
After a stretch where he lost five out of seven bouts, it seemed that Jeremy Stephens’ career would be over. But three impressive wins over Gilbert Melendez, Doo Ho Choi, and Josh Emmett have resurrected his career. Stephens has lost the big fights in his career, but he has a chance to change that here.
Jeremy Stephens has the scary one-punch knockout power, and he can end this fight if he lands his big right hand on Jose Aldo. Aldo’s last three losses have come via stoppage, so he isn’t as durable as he was. It seems that his 13-second loss to Conor McGregor took something from him. That’s dangerous against a man like Stephens.
But Stephens hasn’t done well with the best strikers in the business. He lost to Frankie Edgar, Max Holloway, Donald Cerrone, and Anthony Pettis. Knowing that Aldo is a technically skilled striker, Stephens could be in for a long night in Alberta. Aldo is slick with his punches and kicks. We’re gonna see that here.
Aldo has lost three of his last four bouts, while Stephens is on a three-fight win streak. Li’l Heathen is a year older than Junior but has a two-inch advantage in height, one-inch edge in reach, and is a plus-two-inches in leg reach. With 18 knockouts to his credit, he also has the power advantage over Aldo.
The Brazilian is slightly better with his 3.46 strikes-per-minute average. He is also the more accurate striker, connecting on 44.54% of his strikes as compared to 40.44% for Stephens. But while Stephens’ 3.08 strikes per minute is a little lower compared to Aldo’s numbers, Li’l Heathen works better on the ground with his 1.17 takedowns per 15 minutes average compared to Aldo’s 0.74. Likewise, Stephens has the better submission average at .43 against 0.17.
This has the potential to be a barnburner. Aldo and Stephens are two of the hardest hitters in the division. The key for Aldo is to avoid Stephens’ big right hand, and with his kicking ability, Aldo should be able to keep Stephens at bay while he works his signature combinations. Look, this isn’t the same Aldo who was a dominant champion. But against Stephens, he will definitely look better.
Li’l Heathen has the durability to take this fight to the distance. But he is only going to be frustrated by the Brazilian’s overall striking game. Stephens only knows one way to win, and that is to punch his way to victory. Aldo, meanwhile, has plenty in his arsenal. He is going to frustrate Stephens here. Neither is in good form, but skill-wise, Aldo has always been better. We’re picking Jose Aldo to beat Jeremy Stephens on points.
Former UFC women’s strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk looks to return to the winning column as she faces Tecia Torres at UFC Calgary.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk was the second UFC women’s strawweight champion. Prior to her loss to Rose Namajunas at UFC 217, she was the #1 pound-for-pound female MMA fighter on the planet. Joanna defended her belt a total of five times, just one shy of Ronda Rousey’s record.
Jedrzejczyk is a former multiple-time world kickboxing champion and is considered by many as the best technical striker in women’s MMA today. However, she’s lost two fights in a row, and before she thinks about getting another crack at her old belt, she must prove that she still has it.
Tecia Torres is currently the 5th-ranked female strawweight in the UFC. The 28-year-old was one of the 11 contestants in the Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned tournament, which was won by Carla Esparza, who incidentally eliminated Torres in the quarterfinals of the said tournament.
Torres won her first seven fights but suffered a unanimous decision loss to current UFC women’s strawweight champion Rose Namajunas. She bounced back with an impressive three-fight win streak before dropping a one-sided loss to Jessica Andrade at UFC on Fox 28. A win over Joanna will almost surely get her her first title shot.
Jedrzejczyk is a highly efficient striker who has a world-class kickboxing background. As such, she’s very effective in using her knees and legs. She also has a background in boxing, so her punch combinations are also extraordinary. If this fight stays on its feet, Joanna is just going to dominate Tecia Torres badly.
Torres is also primarily a striker. She also has great accuracy, and she can control the octagon pretty well. She is quick and athletic, and she has a background in Taekwondo. With seven takedowns in her UFC career, Torres has also proven that she can fight on the ground.
Jedrzejczyk’s 6.63 strikes-per-minute average is superior to Torres’ 4.74 strikes per minute. However, Torres’ 49.3% striking accuracy is just a shade better than Jedrzejczyk’s 48.5% striking accuracy. On the ground, Torres also has the advantage with 0.95 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is much better than Joanna’s 0.17 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Torres was dominated in her most recent bout after she was taken down 10 times during that fight. She won’t have to worry about takedowns against Jedrzejczyk, though, as Joanna prefers to fight on her feet and isn’t very confident on the ground. However, Torres will have her hands full in the stand-up with a very elite striker throwing punches and kicks at her.
Torres looked bad in her recent loss to Jessica Andrade. Now she is being paired with the most consistent fighter the women’s strawweight division has ever seen. Joanna Jedrzejczyk simply has much more firepower here, and most likely, she is going to out-strike Tecia Torres by a mile. Not to take anything away from Torres, but Joanna exists in a different plane.
Jedrzejczyk has the right to claim that she won her rematch with Rose Namajunas. Not only does Joanna have the edge in skill and experience here, but she also has a five-inch reach advantage. That gives her probably every advantage in this fight. I don’t think this is going to be close. We’re picking Joanna Jedrzejczyk to beat Tecia Torres easily.
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