The announcement of the NBA’s return has sparked plenty of NBA prop bets in recent days. The most popular ones are those that are related to top rookie pick Zion Williamson.
Willamson was the unanimous choice for #1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. The former Duke Blue Devil was drafted first overall by the New Orleans Pelicans. But the Pelicans’ prized rookie missed the early part of the season with a foot injury. However, when he finally stepped inside the hardcourt, he was the phenom that everyone expected.
Gifted with otherworldly athleticism and bounce, Williamson made an immediate impact. He helped the New Orleans Pelicans rise from a sure lottery team to among the five teams in the Western Conference who were invited to come to Disney World to compete for a playoff spot.
The Pelicans are just 3.5 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies and they have 8 games to make up for the deficit. Sure, they have strong rivals in the Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, and the Phoenix Suns, but they have a healthy Zion who was slowly delivering superstar numbers when the season was suspended.
If the Pelicans do catch up with the Grizzlies and make the playoffs, here are Zion Williamson prop bets to think about:
Zion Williamson was averaging 23.6 points per game before the season was suspended and this prop bet only asks Zion to score just one point per game to beat the over. When you look at the season splits, Zion was putting up 24.2 points per game in March and 25.7 points per game while playing the full month of February. Zion didn’t play the whole of January due to injury and didn’t play the entire month of March due to the COVID-19 stoppage. There’s no doubt he can score 25 points per game when he is 100% healthy.
The concern here is Williamson’s form after nearly four months without playing competitive basketball. But remember that there are 8 regular-season games before the playoffs and the teams are given enough time to get in shape. Zion is a natural scorer and I think he will be in terrific shape come July 31st.
The only reason why I think Zion won’t hit over 24.5 points per game is if the Pelicans limit his minutes. He played an average of 33 minutes per game in March, 30 minutes per game in February, and 25.0 minutes per game in January. If the Pelicans unleash Zion in the playoffs, which they will, I think he scores over 25 points per game.
Prediction: Over 24.5 (-115)
Williamson was averaging 6.8 rebounds per game before the season was suspended and given his hops, it’s easy to say that he can grab at least one more per game during the postseason. But while Williamson is an excellent leaper, rebounding isn’t his main job in the team. Derrick Favors is the team’s leading rebounder and the Pelicans have guards like Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, and Jrue Holiday who average at least 4.9 rebounds per game each.
Williamson grabbed more than seven rebounds in only three games since February 2020 and only five times in 19 games played. The Pelicans are very good in gang rebounding and I don’t think Williamson is going to get over seven rebounds per game during the playoffs. He’s a great leaper but when it comes to defense, he’s likely to go for steals and leak out for an easy fastbreak rather than patrol the lanes and grab the rebounds.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-115)
Zion Williamson is a good passer and he knows how to make the right pass. But in New Orleans’ system, he is a scorer and finisher more than a passer or playmaker. Sure, he knows where to pass when he is double-teamed. But when the ball gets in his hands, it’s usually for him to dunk or drive against his defender.
However, Williamson averaged 2.2 assists per game during the 2019-20 season. He had three or more assists in eight out of the 19 games he played. Six of those games came in February and March while he issued three assists in two of five games played in March. I think that opposing teams will double-team Zion more in the playoffs and he will make the right passes to his teammates. The Pelicans have plenty of scorers on their team and Zion should average over 2.5 dimes per contest during the postseason.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-115)
Among the Zion playoff prop bets, I think this is the easiest one to make. Sure, Williamson is multi-talented and he can score, rebound, and pass. But triple-doubles are another story and I’d rather have Zion score 50 points than think he gets a triple-double during the postseason.
In his 19 regular-season games, Zion only had two double-doubles. But not only does he only have two double-digit rebounding games, but Williamson also hasn’t issued more than five assists in an NBA game. As I said earlier, his role on this team isn’t to pass and although I expect his passing numbers to increase during the playoffs, I don’t think he is capable of putting up double-digit assist numbers.
Prediction: Under 0.5 (-115)
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