Do I need to explain the prestige of the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award?
Not only does it do wonders for a player’s legacy, but it also gives that player an incredible chance to be put into the NFL Hall of Fame. If you’re not familiar, the premise of the award is to give it to the best player in the league for that season, and the winner of the award is voted on by the media.
Last season, it would be Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes who would take home the award, and he would do so in his first season as a starter. Going into the new campaign, Mahomes lands preseason favorite status to win the MVP for a second consecutive year.
According to the best football betting sites, Mahomes lists as the top favorite to secure the Most Valuable Player Award with +550 odds. Following Mahomes, we have Aaron Rodgers in second place at +1000, while Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz are tied for the No. 3 position on the odds table with an +1100 figure. For the fifth spot to round out the top five for us, we have another tie, this time between Andrew Luck* and Drew Brees at +1200. In the seventh spot, we have Tom Brady and his +1600 odds, followed by a tie for eighth between Mitchell Trubisky and Deshaun Watson at +1800. To take things to the end of the top 10 for us, we have Philip Rivers set at +2000.
*Andrew Luck now retired
The reason why Patrick Mahomes is coming in as the favorite to win a second consecutive MVP is because of his elite playmaking — elite playmaking that leads to wins, and a lot of them. His massive arm strength, his speed, and agility on the scramble, and his incredible football IQ all combined together is what makes Mahomes such a special talent. Expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be on top of the world, yet again, due to the productivity of Mahomes.
In 2018, Mahomes would lead the league in touchdown passes with a stunning total of 50, and he would also accomplish the second ranking in passing yards breaking over the 5,000 threshold with 5,097. His historic season would lead the Kansas City Chiefs to the best regular season record in the AFC. Speaking of his statistics, not only is he the favorite to win the MVP again this year, but he’s also the top-dog to throw for the most passing yards this season.
How on earth can you bet against him? He’s going to absolutely blaze up, carve up, light up, all of the above the opposition this season, and honestly, I don’t see anybody taking the MVP away from him. Somebody tried to make the argument to me that he may have issues because of the off-the-field issues with Tyreek Hill (and by the way, he’s been found innocent, I don’t see this playing a factor at all) and the Chiefs losing Kareem Hunt. In my opinion, that’s completely grasping for straws if you want to make that argument.
Patrick Mahomes won the MVP last season because of video-game numbers, historic numbers that will be in the record-books for quite some time — we don’t see seasons like this every year, you know. With as talented as Mahomes is and with the weaponry that Kansas City has, I’m seeing another season with gaudy figures. I’m sorry, but I’m just not seeing anybody taking the MVP away from Mahomes this season.
If you didn’t notice, the entire top 10 favorites to win the 2019 NFL MVP are from the quarterback position, and it’s because of an obvious reason: Players outside of the QB spot very rarely win the award. Since the 2001 season, there’s only been a total of three players outside of quarterbacks that have won the MVP, and all three were running backs: Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012).
As far as Alexander, Tomlinson, and Peterson were concerned, they would have absolutely incredible seasons. Both Alexander and Tomlinson would break the single-season touchdown record, while Peterson would eclipse the 2,000 rushing yards threshold becoming the seventh player in the history of the NFL to do so — that feat is even more breathtaking considering this would come just a season after he would suffer a torn ACL.
Going back to why you should take a quarterback though: Since the 2006 season, there’s only been one non-QB to finish in top three voting for the MVP Award — that would be Adrian Peterson in 2012. When you consider all of these numbers and the fact that most NFL teams are pass-first nowadays, you see why it’s hard to not bet on a quarterback to win the MVP. Just check out the 2019 non-QB favorites: You have to go all the way down the list at +5000 odds, which includes a tie between Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Donald.
Two long shot candidates that you should strongly consider placing a bet on are Seattle Seahawks’ Russell Wilson with +2500 odds, and Jacksonville Jaguars’ Nick Foles is also a solid option placed at +6600. Both have a realistic shot of winning the 2019 MVP with their talent, and the surrounded weaponry around them.
For the Seattle Seahawks as a whole, I’m pretty high on them to hit the OVER for the O/U WIN TOTAL prop bet and earn a spot in the postseason as a result — they’re placed at 8.5 after getting 10 victories last year. Seattle would have one of the best rushing games in the NFL in 2018, and the main corporate for that would be the legs of Russell Wilson. He can throw, he can run and he can make plays from multiple directions. If Wilson can once again carry the team to the postseason and win their division of the NFC West, he’ll surely be a heavy option to win the Most Valuable Player Award.
You have to like Nick Foles in this bet because he’s replacing a horrendous Blake Bortles with the Jacksonville Jaguars, and with him being an extreme focus of an offense now, you have to be interested in his long shot chances. We already know the story with Foles. He would take the Philadelphia Eagles to the championship in Super Bowl LII, and would also nearly put them in the NFC Championship last season. Now in Jacksonville, he still has great tools to work with, including a productive running attack and a terrifying defense for opposition to face.
If Nick Foles can lead the Jaguars to the NFC South championship or a double-digit win season, he’ll certainly be in the discussion for Most Valuable Player.
Before we go over the entire list of odds for who will win the 2019 NFL Most Valuable Player, let’s go over the top favorites to achieve the award.
There’s a reason why Patrick Mahomes was named the NFL MVP last season: His numbers were absolutely god-like. In total, he would compile an incredible stat line of 5,097 passing yards, 50 touchdowns, throwing just 12 interceptions, a 113.8 QBR and would complete 66% of his passes throughout the entire season. When you look at those numbers, who else would you have gave the award to? He certainly deserved it, and you can expect more of these numbers in the 2019 campaign, which is why he’s the top favorite to win it yet again.
Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t put up the numbers that Patrick Mahomes did, but they were still top quality figures. In total, Rodgers would tally 4,442 passing yards while throwing for 25 touchdowns and just two interceptions, and those statistics would lead to a 97.6 QBR and a 62.3% completion of his passes. With a new head coach and a revamped roster to work with, everything is set in place for Aaron Rodgers to have another MVP on his resume — he already has two. (2011, 2014)
When Baker Mayfield was called to the plate in Week 3 last year, he would do nothing but deliver from that point throughout the entire season, and it would be stargazing numbers for a rookie. His numbers would accumulate to 3,725 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, and along with that would come a 93.7 QBR and a completion percentage of 63.8. With Odell Beckham Jr. and Kareem Hunt now added to the roster, Mayfield has the talent to work with in every direction, so if the Cleveland Browns have a big year, this could be your MVP.
I truly believe that Carson Wentz has talent, but here’s why I wouldn’t place a bet on him and his +1100 odds: I have zero faith in his durability. With as much as Wentz has been injured, I’m actually surprised that he’s so high on the list. Consider this a bad pick, ladies and gentlemen. He wouldn’t have bad numbers in 11 games though: He would throw for 3,074 yards and break the 20 TD passes threshold at 21, and throwing just seven interceptions. Other numbers would be an impressive 102.2 QBR and he’d also nearly complete 70% of his passes hitting 69.6%.
As far as passing yards is concerned, Drew Brees wouldn’t have one of his usual explosive seasons, but he would still nearly clip the 4,000 mark. As far as touchdowns are concerned, however, Brees still did his thing. To be honest, I’m nitpicking a little bit, it was still an elite season — especially considering he threw for just five interceptions. Here was his complete stat line: 3,992 yards, 32 touchdowns, five interceptions, 115.7 QBR, and 74.4% completion percentage. With a chip on his shoulder after last year’s playoff exit, look for a MVP-type year.
Tom Brady was, well, Tom Brady last season, putting up usual elite numbers that would eventually lead the New England Patriots to the Super Bowl LIV championship. You can expect this season to have a similar feel, and let’s be real, Brady is always a good pick when it comes to MVP betting. Here were his 2019 numbers: 4,355 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 97.7 QBR and 65.8% completion percentage. As I said, Tom Brady is always someone you can ride with, with the consistent numbers he puts up. 2019 will be no different.
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