The first Democratic debates, which took place last week on June 26 and 27, are now passed and the odds have been updated for the 24 declared candidates involved in the presidential primaries for the party.
From day one since he announced his candidacy on April 25, former vice president Joe Biden has been the favorite to win the nomination, both in the polling and with the odds. Right now, his odds currently stand at +200, or 2/1, which is still good enough to retain the No. 1 position with the gambling community.
Shifting up to second in the updated odds is Elizabeth Warren, a socialist Democratic senator out of Massachusetts. She currently sits with a figure of +450, which is 9/2. Her outstanding performance in the first debate would bump her up to second place, and it’s impressive when you look where she came from: She was sitting at +2000 (2/1) back in May when the first odds were released. Now she’s only behind Joe Biden, who is falling in the polls.
On the list of odds, there are several names to choose from as far as placing a wager on, even people who haven’t declared their candidacy at all — even prestigious names such as former first lady Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey. So if you want to have some fun and stray away from the typical names, by all means, there are plenty of options. As far as Obama and Winfrey are concerned, they’re both sitting at a hefty +10000 (100/1) in the odds.
ELIZABETH WARREN: THE UPRISING
When campaign season got underway for the Democrats, she was among the top-tier candidates, but was nearly an afterthought after Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. It was even debatable that Kamala Harris had a little more fire-power than Warren. However, she took her early +2000 odds and shot them up to +450 after her performance in the debate. It’s been an impressive showing from her, especially in the odds.
But why has she increased so much with betters?
The increase with her numbers started in April when she held a town hall, which was a pretty solid showing. She would explain to Americans her plan for the country if she became president, and would also tell us exactly how she would get it done and deliver promises. She’s also got appeal due to her knowledge in economics (though I would debate that, personally, with her socialist policies) being a former bankruptcy lawyer.
But again, that’s a bit of a contradiction considering she’s pushing for “free” college, “free” health care and also eliminating all student debt — three policies that would be disastrous to the United States economy. And don’t get me wrong, I have a lot of student debt to pay off, and I also don’t have health care because it’s too expensive. As much as I’d like to benefit from these policies, our economy and the American taxpayer would suffer. There’s already enough of that going on, we’re $24 trillion in debt as a matter of fact. But that’s just me, it’s actually appealing to a lot of Americans, especially young Americans.
Also to her credit, she was able to humanize herself very well. On the discussion of health care, Warren would bring up a story about her father having a heart attack and her family would struggle with medical bills as a result. I do give her credit, she did quite well with that. As time goes along and media exposure goes up, I can only see Elizabeth Warren going up in both the polling and the odds, and eventually be right behind Joe Biden.
JOE BIDEN: THE DECLINE
Ever since he announced his candidacy, Joe Biden has held the top spot in the odds to win the Democratic nomination when things are said and done. Even before that was official, he was still lingering among the favorites. But lately, things haven’t gone so well for the former vice president.
Things would start to go down hill for Biden a bit when allegations of sexual assault and inappropriate touching would surface around his campaign. Due to the uncomfortable nature, whether he meant it to be or not, it’s become an issue for his campaign. He’s survived it for the most part, but we still have a long way to go in the primaries. Biden has also been taking hits from Democrats such as Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker for his words about former Mississippi United States senator James Eastland and working with other segregationists to get bills passed into law. With how crucial identity politics are in the Democratic Party, this issue could stick with the Biden campaign the entire way through.
But that’s not all, Biden is also surrounded by controversy when it comes to how much he charges in speaking fees, charging up to $200,000 per speech and making requests such as exotic pasta before he goes to speak. Sounds like the political Frank Sinatra over here. Biden may have raised $20 million in fundraising, but too many problems will certainly become problematic for his campaign if they continue to pile up — we haven’t even gotten into Biden’s son. It doesn’t matter how popular Biden may be, and how much of the Obama coalition that he has, he’s in a bit of trouble right now with his decline in both polling and the odds. He needs to get his campaign in check immediately before things get really out of control. With a party craving for experience according to the polls, however, Biden may be able to get through all of this with just a flew slaps on the wrist — though he may have a fight on his hands in the end with the pile of problems.
Let’s take a look at all of the odds for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries, courtesy of Bovada, and the latest reports involving the favorites.
For Joe Biden, when it rains, it pours. His recent flipping on abortion certainly isn’t going to help, as any form of flip-flopping isn’t popular in politics — he needs to get that in check as well before it gets too out of control. And did you think that was it? Biden has also been taking heat for defending states’ rights on busing, and boy, did Kamala Harris light him up in the debate for that — he lost so many political points for that exchange, which explains his drop in both the polls and the odds. The list continues though. Over the weekend, Biden would make a ‘gay waiter’ comment and then would defend it by saying it was socially acceptable five years ago — comments that you can’t make as a member of the Democratic Party. And oh yeah, this was at an event with a bunch of wealthy donors. Nice going, Uncle Joe.
And speaking of the debate earlier, do we even have to talk about that terrible performance? And oh yeah, “Unc”, sitting there saying that our current president is an “existential threat” to the United States is a ridiculous and radical thing to say, and just adds more division into an already massively divided country. My heart is telling me that Biden will crumble eventually, and that may be right, but my head is telling me that the Democratic establishment will keep him afloat. As a result, I’d still ride with Joe Biden for right now — for right now.
Ever since things have gotten kicked off for the Democratic Party, Elizabeth Warren has ran a very well campaign. There’s been a small hiccup here and there, but nothing but too much that Warren hasn’t been able to recover from — and then we got to the debate, where she would do an excellent job to see her shoot up in both the polls and the odds.
But of course, every candidate has their flaws. Though not as bad as Biden, Warren has had a bit of an issue with flip-flopping herself, shifting on healthcare — which is obviously a big one. She may have to do some damage control just in case, which is kind of hard to do when you’re advocating for socialism, to begin with. Other than that, however, there isn’t too much I can say bad about Elizabeth Warren. Expect her to only increase from here as long as she keeps her performance up as it has been.
Kamala Harris would score major political points in the debate, mainly because of her scorching of former vice president Joe Biden for his ‘segregationist’ comments. However, Harris has been taking some heat herself due to the prosecution history — she was a tough cookie. Despite the concern from many Democrats though, she claims it to just be “overblown” and she’s probably right, I don’t see this being too big of an issue.
There’s also seems to be a conspiracy theory that’s surrounding the Harris campaign as well, and that’s due to a conservative provocateur claiming that she’s “not an American black” — this due to her father being from Jamaica and her mother being from India. The tweet claiming this would then get re-tweeted by Donald Trump Jr., and it would pick up a bit more steam — he would eventually delete the tweet. I don’t see this becoming an issue throughout the primaries, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this get brought back up if Harris won the Democratic nomination. Keep an eye on ‘Birtherism 2.0′, that’s for sure.
It hasn’t been all gloom and doom after the debate, she has done very well with fundraising pulling in a total of $2 million — and that was in the first 24 hours after the debate. But if she continues to pile up her list of faults, it could kill her momentum — such as also flip-flopping like competition Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. Momentum is everything in politics, and Harris doesn’t want to kill it with silly little mistakes like that. It’ll be interesting to see how Harris’ campaign develops from here, she’ll have plenty of more opportunities to score political points.
His campaign would start out really well and is still doing well for the most part, but Pete Buttigieg has taken some hits as of late — mainly the issue going on his city of South Bend, Indiana, where he is mayor. There, a black man would get shot by a police officer, with the officer having his body came off and there’s no way of telling what actually happened. As a result, it’s caused a wave of controversy for Buttigieg surrounding the issue of race. For example, many activists in South Bend and former city officials have recently come out to slam Buttigieg, even referring to him as a fraud, and they’ve even been calling for his resignation.
That’s just in his city though in his defense, because nationwide, Buttigieg is still doing very well, especially with fundraising. In the second quarter, Buttigieg pulled in a whopping $24.8 million. And despite his issues with race, he was able to land a pretty solid endorsement from LGBTQ Victory Fund, which will help him a bit more with the minority vote. In the debate, Buttigieg would also put up a solid performance, even declared a winner by CBS News. In other words, it hasn’t been all bad for Pete Buttigieg.
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