Blake Daniels, January 26, 2023

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The San Francisco 49ers visit the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday for the NFC Championship game.

San Francisco is a combined 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS this season and they head to this game having won their last dozen games played. The 49ers have allowed the fewest yards in the NFL this season and rank no.2 against the run.

Philadelphia was arguably the best regular-season team this year. The Eagles are 15-3 SU and 9-9 ATS overall. The Philly defense is also a standout this season as they ranked 2nd in total yards allowed and owned the best pass defense in the NFL this year.

The total has gone under in each of their last four games played, including a 17-11 win by the 49ers in their most recent game played.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers have defied the odds. After losing starter Trey Lance early during the season, they went on a winning run with backup Jimmy Garropolo. Then Garropolo got hurt in Week 13 so the 49ers were forced to go with third-stringer Brock Purdy, who was the 262nd and final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Miraculously, they are still here with only four teams left in the 2022 NFL season. Purdy is 7-0 SU in seven total starts and he has thrown 16 TDs and only 3 INTS during that stretch. From being Mr. Irrelevant, he was recently named one of the finalists for Offensive Rookie of the Year. That will be the last thing on his mind though as the 49ers are two wins away from immortality 

Christian McCaffrey has been key to San Francisco’s 12-game winning run. His ability to be a dual-threat on offense has been very big for the Niners. As stated above, the 49ers are the best defensive team in the NFL this season. Nick Bosa was just named the PFWA Defensive Player of the Year.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles started the season like a house on fire and it looked like they would have the perfect regular season. However, QB Jalen Hurts experienced shoulder issues and missed time. They finished the regular season with a 14-3 SU record and took a first-round bye as the top seed in the NFC. Hurts returned to action during their season finale and he answered questions about his shoulder against the Giants.

Hurts do not need to have a big passing performance here. He just needs to be what he has been all year long, a dual-threat QB who has done damage both with his arm and with his legs. Still, he threw 22 TD passes with only six INTS during the regular season. But perhaps the key for the Eagles would be if they can establish the rushing attack.

Philly was the best regular-season team in the NFL this year. But this is the postseason where one loss gets you booted out of contention. The Eagles have the best pass defense in the league. They should be able to put the pressure on the inexperienced Purdy and perhaps limit the 49ers’ scoring attack.

49ers vs Eagles SU Prediction

The 49ers are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games played against the Eagles. San Francisco is, however, 2-3 SU in their last five games played in Philadelphia.

San Francisco 49ers SU trends:

• The 49ers are 12-0 SU in their last 12 games played.
• The 49ers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played on the road.
• The 49ers are 4-1 SU in their last 6 games played against the NFC East Division.
• The 49ers are 12-2 SU in their last 12 games played against the NFC.
• The 49ers are 4-2 SU in their last six road games against the NFC.

Philadelphia Eagles SU trends:

• The Eagles are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games played.
• The Eagles are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played.
• The Eagles are 7-2 SU in their last 9 Sunday home games played.
• The Eagles are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games played against the NFC.
• The Eagles are 5-2 SU in their last 7 home games against the NFC.

The 49ers remain the hottest team in the NFL by picking up their 12th consecutive win against the Dallas Cowboys last weekend. The San Francisco defense starred once again as they held Dallas to just one touchdown and two field goals while intercepting Dak Prescott twice. The game marked the 8th time in their last 10 assignments that the 49ers’ defense forced at least 2 turnovers.

Meanwhile, Brock Purdy continued to impress as he did not throw an interception again. Purdy threw for 200+ yards without an INT for the second straight game. Since being named the starter, he has thrown 16 TD passes with only 3 INTs. Elijah Mitchell and Christian McCaffrey combined for 86 rushing yards on 24 carries but are nursing injured heading to Sunday’s title game. The two are, however, expected to play against the Eagles.

Jalen Hurts answered questions on his banged-up shoulder last weekend, After not throwing any TD pass during his first game back and the team’s regular-season finale, Hurts completed his first 7 passes, threw two TDs, and rushed for another score during the Divisional Round against the Giants.

Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders played big too in that game as they combined to rush for 202 of the team’s total 268 yards. The Eagles defense also played very well, holding the Giants to just 227 total yards and 1 TD in the entire game.

The 49ers have the best defense in the NFL. Theirs is built to stop a prolific run offense like the Eagle. If San Francisco’s defense can contain the Eagles rushing attack without bringing extra players near the line of scrimmage, then they will have a good chance of stopping Philly’s aerial assault as well.

Purdy’s inexperience has always been what their critics point out. However, with McCaffrey and Mitchell leading the ground attack, it balances the 49ers’ offense and helps Purdy get confident in throwing the football. With Philly’s average run defense, the Niners have a real shot at an upset here.

With a deadly rushing attack, the Eagles don’t need a huge passing game from Jalen Hurts. However, he might need to do better than 154 passing yards, especially if the 49ers’ defense can limit their ground attack.

The Eagles’ defense will be the toughest test for Purdy so far as they are coming off a five-sack performance against the Giants. The weather condition favors the Eagles against a West Coast team that played in the mid-40s temperature last week.

This should be a good game. But the home team should prevail.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles

49ers vs Eagles ATS Prediction

The 49ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings between these two teams. The favorite is also 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games played between the 49ers and Eagles.

San Francisco 49ers ATS trends:

• The 49ers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games overall.
• The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
• The 49ers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
• The 49ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The 49ers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
• The 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.
• The 49ers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games in January.
• The 49ers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 versus the NFC.

Philadelphia Eagles ATS trends:

• The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
• The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
• The Eagles are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against an opponent with a winning record.
• The Eagles are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played against the NFC.
• The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in January.

Purdy has been impressive but he will be facing the best pass defense in the league on Sunday. I think that the 49ers are more than just Purdy’s passing game and that their running back duo of McCaffrey and Mitchell should be able to help them move the ball.

Meanwhile, Hurts didn’t look hurt the last time out. Anytime he’s healthy, the Eagles are tough to beat. Give props to the 49ers for winning 12 in a row but anytime now, they are due to discover the Law of Averages. I’m picking the Eagles to win and cover.

Prediction: Eagles -2.5

49ers vs Eagles Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in each of the last four meetings between these two teams.

San Francisco 49ers over/under trends:

• The over is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games overall.
• The over is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 5-2 in the 49ers’ last 7 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 6-1 in the 49ers’ last 7 games on grass.
• The over is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last 6 playoff games.
• The under is 7-0 in the 49ers’ last 7 playoff road games.
• The under is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 11-4 in the 49ers’ last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.

Philadelphia Eagles over/under trends:

• The under is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last 5 games overall.
• The under is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The under is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last 5 vs. NFC.
• The under is 12-3-1 in the Eagles’ last 16 playoff home games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Eagles’ last 4 games on grass.
• The under is 59-27 in the Eagles’ last 86 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
• The under is 15-5-1 in the Eagles’ last 21 playoff games.
• The under is 19-7-2 in the Eagles’ last 28 games in January.
• The over is 6-2 in the Eagles’ last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• The over is 11-4 in the Eagles’ last 15 home games.
• The over is 5-2 in the Eagles’ last 7 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2 in the Eagles’ last 7 games versus a team with a winning record.
• The over is 5-1 in the Eagles’ last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• The over is 5-2 in the Eagles’ last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
• The over is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 8-2 in the Eagles’ last 10 games following a straight-up win.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Eagles’ last 6 Conference Championships games.

These are the top two defenses in the NFL this season as far as allowing total yards is concerned. Also, the 49ers rank second against the run, while the Eagles are no.1 against the pass. The Eagles were also the top pass-defending team in the NFL during the regular season.

These teams have gone under in their last four meetings and are averaging a combined 38.33 points per game in their most recent three encounters.

Prediction: Under 46.5