Blake Daniels, October 13, 2022

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Sunday action takes the San Francisco 49ers to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons in Week 6 NFL action.

The 49ers opened their 2022 campaign with a 19-10 loss to the Chicago Bears but were able to quickly bounce back to beat the Seahawks 27-7 in week 2. San Francisco dropped a close 11-10 contest to the Denver Broncos the following week but once again, bounced back to defeat the defending Super Bowl champions Rams two weeks ago. Last week, the 49ers won back-to-back games for the first time this season and are looking to make it three in a row.

The Falcons began their season with back-to-back losses. They dropped a 27-26 contest to the New Orleans Saints in week 1 and then lost 31-27 to the L.A. Rams in week 2. Atlanta however, picked up a pair of wins in the next two weeks, beating the Seattle Seahawks 27-23 and halting the Cleveland Browns 23-20. Last weekend, the Falcons nearly upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and lost 21-15.

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers didn’t have much trouble beating the Panthers last week. San Francisco produced its highest-scoring game of the season with 37 points. Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 253 yards with two touchdowns to lead the offense. However, it was running back Jeffrey Wilson who impressed more with 120 rushing yards on 17 carries with one touchdown.

Jimmy G. has thrown for 857 yards with 5 TDs and a QBR of 38.7 this season. Wilson leads the team with 375 rushing yards on 74 carries with two TDs while Deebo Samuel has caught 20 passes for 266 yards with 2 TD grabs. Dre Greenlaw leads the team with 49 tackles while Nick Bosa has 6 sacks to pace the 49ers. Talanoa Tufanga is the team leader with 2 INTs after five weeks.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons rallied from a 21-0 deficit against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and made the game very interesting, outsourcing the Bucs 15-0 from there. However, they could not complete the comeback and suffered their first loss in three weeks. Marcus Mariota threw for only 147 yards with one TD and also led the team with 61 rushing yards.

Mariota has thrown for 926 passing yards with 4 TDs and a QBR of 49.0. Cordarrelle Patterson is the team leader with 340 rushing yards on 58 carries with 3 rush TDs while Drake London has caught 22 passes for 266 yards with two TD catches. Mykal Walker leads the team with 44 tackles and also has one sack while Grady Garrett is the team leader with 3.5 sacks. Casey Hayward has 1 INT for Atlanta this season.

Who Wins?

The 49ers are 4-2 SU in their last six games played against the Falcons. San Francisco is just 2-7 SU in their last 9 road games played in Atlanta.

San Francisco 49ers SU trends:

• The 49ers are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games played.
• The 49ers are 1-2 SU in 3 road games played this season.
• The 49ers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games played against the NFC South Division.
• The 49ers are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games played in October.

Atlanta Falcons SU trends:

• The Falcons are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games played overall.
• The Falcons are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games played at home.
• The Falcons are 2-6 SU in their last 8 October home games
• The Falcons are 3-2 SU in their last 5 October games.

The 49ers did a great job of shutting down the defending Super Bowl champions Los Angeles Rams in a Monday Night Football matchup in Week 4. Then San Francisco rolled to an easy 37-15 win over the Carolina Panthers on the road the last time out. The 49ers knocked out Panthers QB Baker Mayfield with a high-ankle sprain and the week ended up with Carolina head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator getting fired.

The Falcons have done well after five weeks, at least as far as exceeding preseason expectations. They are 2-3 SU with their three losses coming by a combined losing margin of 11 points. This team lost to the Saints by one point, four against the L.A. Rams, and 6 last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The reason I enumerated those games is that I wanted to show how this team has been competitive this season and they may be better than what their record shows.

But Marcus Mariota needs to do more with his arm this week. The Falcons QB has thrown for more than 196 yards only two times in five games played this season and he has thrown for less than 150 in his last two outings. If the Falcons need to win, Mariota must put up better passing numbers to complement the team’s good rushing attack. The 49ers have also defended well against the run so Mariota really has to step up this week.

Atlanta gave up 420 total yards ( including 351 passing ) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last weekend. They only picked up 261 total yards ( including 110 passing ). Other than getting dominated in total offense, the Falcons took good care of the ball and did not commit any turnovers. Because of that, I expect Atlanta to hang around in this game. Ultimately, however, the 49ers’ defense and their more diverse offense are going to win this game for them.

Prediction: San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers vs Atlanta Falcons ATS Trends

The 49ers are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Falcons. San Francisco is also 4-6 ATS in their last 10 road games played in Atlanta.

San Francisco 49ers ATS trends:

• The 49ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• The 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
• The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 6.
• The 49ers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The 49ers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 versus the NFC.
• The 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played against the NFC South Division.
• The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
• The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win.
• The 49ers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• The 49ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on grass.
• The 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Atlanta Falcons ATS trends:

• The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
• The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the NFC.
• The Falcons are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
• The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.
• The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Falcons are 12-27 ATS in their last 39 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• The Falcons are 1-4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing game has looked good in the last two weeks but it has been the emergence of Jeff Wilson’s rushing game that has really made the difference for the San Francisco offense. Wilson rushed for 120 yards with one TD against the Panthers and he is averaging 5.1 yards per carry after five weeks of action.

The Atlanta rush defense has not played a shutdown game yet. Leonard Fournette didn’t have a big game though in Week 5 but Rashaad Penny and Nick Chubb both had good games against the Falcons’ defensive unit. The best way for Atlanta to win this game or cover the spread would be to slow down Wilson and let Jimmy G. win the game by himself if he can. I doubt that.

Prediction: 49ers -6

49ers vs Falcons over/under trends

The total has gone over in three out of the last five games played between these two teams. The total has gone over in six out of the last 10 games played between the 49ers and Falcons in Atlanta.

San Francisco 49ers over/under trends:

• Under is 7-1 in the 49ers’ last 8 games overall.
• Under is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last 6 road games.
• Under is 8-1 in the 49ers’ last 9 games on grass.
• Under is 6-1 in the 49ers’ last 7 games played versus the NFC.
• Under is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games following an ATS win.
• Under is 4-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games following a straight-up win.
• Over is 6-2 in the 49ers’ last 8 games in Week 6.
• Over is 5-1 in the 49ers’ last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record.

Atlanta Falcons over/under trends:

• Over is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Falcons’ last 6 games in Week 6.
• Over is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games played versus the NFC.
• Over is 4-1 in the Falcons’ last 5 games played versus the NFC West Division.
• Over is 9-3-1 in the Falcons’ last 13 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 12-4 in the Falcons’ last 16 home games against a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 28-10 in the Falcons’ last 38 games against a team with a winning record.
• Under is 8-3 in the Falcons’ last 11 games on grass.
• Under is 5-2 in the Falcons’ last 7 home games.
• Under is 9-4 in the Falcons’ last 13 games in October.
• Under is 69-32-4 in the Falcons’ last 105 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

These teams have combined to score an average of 44.90 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, and 49.67 points per game in their last three games played. This year has been different, however.

The 49ers are just 16th in scoring at only 21.6 points per game this season. They have the second-best scoring in the NFL at only 12.2 points per game allowed. San Francisco’s first four games did not have a total that went over 34 points, although the last time out, they put up 37 points all by themselves against the Panthers.

Atlanta however, is a good defensive team at 12th in scoring defense with 24.4 points per game allowed this season. The Falcons should be able to limit the San Francisco defense and not allow them to go off like they did last week against Carolina. The total might hit 40 points but I don’t think it will be high enough to breach the 44.5-point betting total.

Prediction: Under 44.5